Japanese Grand Prix 2015: 5 Bold Predictions for Suzuka Race
It has been nearly a year since Typhoon Phanfone enveloped the Suzuka Circuit during the Japanese Grand Prix, contributing to Jules Bianchi's fatal accident.
This week, Formula One returns to the scene of that tragedy and Bianchi will be at the forefront of everyone's mind.
With just six races remaining in the season, Lewis Hamilton leads the championship by 41 points over his Mercedes team-mate, Nico Rosberg. Ferrari's Sebastian Vettel is third, a further eight points back, after winning the Singapore Grand Prix on Sunday.
While Mercedes and Ferrari look a secure first and second in the constructors' standings—which determine the teams' prize money payouts—Red Bull are closing the gap to Williams in third and just 28 points separate Force India, Lotus and Toro Rosso in fifth, sixth and seventh.
As well, the Japanese race is a homecoming for Honda, McLaren's engine partner. In fact, Honda owns the Suzuka Circuit.
After failing to deliver on the improved performance the team expected in Singapore, you can bet Honda will be keen not to embarrass the company hierarchy who will likely be in attendance over the weekend (free tip for any Honda execs looking to avoid embarrassment this weekend: stop by a souvenir booth on your way into the circuit and pick up a Mercedes t-shirt).
Of course, Mercedes were off the pace in Singapore, despite Hamilton's assertion, per a team press release, that he "had the pace to win" if it weren't for his turbo failure and subsequent retirement from the race. Expect a strong recovery in Japan, though, after the Silver Arrows suffered their first two retirements of the season at the last two grands prix.
But that is an easy, predictable prediction, given the team has 21 podium finishes in 13 races this year. Here are five bolder predictions to get you ready for the Suzuka race.
A Win for Nico Rosberg
1 of 5
Lewis Hamilton has been the better of the two Mercedes drivers for practically the entire season. But eventually, even if just for one lap, Nico Rosberg will rediscover the form that allowed him to out-qualify Hamilton 12-7 in 2014.
In Japan last year, Rosberg secured pole position by nearly two-tenths of a second over his team-mate and he will do it again on Saturday.
With each race, Rosberg faces increasing pressure to close the gap to Hamilton in the championship, but if the German can grab pole, the pressure shifts to his team-mate on Sunday—particularly at the start, where he has struggled at times.
And if Rosberg gets through the first corner in the lead, he can keep Hamilton behind him, as he demonstrated in Austria.
A Rosberg victory is important not just for his own morale, but for the good of the fans who want to see a dramatic championship fight—it would leave Hamilton a maximum of 34 points ahead, assuming he finishes second.
Williams to Bounce Back
2 of 5
Following the British Grand Prix, Williams led Red Bull by 88 points for third place in the constructors' championship. Red Bull outscored Williams at just one of the first nine races of the season.
In the four races since Silverstone, Red Bull have outscored Williams three times (Italy was the exception) and cut their lead to 59 points.
Part of this is due to the nature of the circuits—Hungary and Singapore's tight turns favour the RB11 chassis and minimise Williams' engine-power advantage. But even at high-speed Spa, Red Bull's Daniil Kvyat finished ahead of both Williams drivers.
Suzuka is more similar to Spa than the Hungaroring or Marina Bay, but Williams will be strong in Japan.
Last year, Valtteri Bottas and Felipe Massa qualified third and fourth for Williams in dry conditions. When the rains came on race day, though, both drivers dropped back, finishing sixth and seventh.
This year, the early forecast is that rain is more likely on Friday and Saturday, per the BBC's Ian Fergusson:
"#F1 #BBCF1 #JAPANESEGP As it stands, model consensus sees the tropical storm passing to S & E of Japan Fri-Sun; w rain *most* likely Fri-Sat
— Ian Fergusson (@fergieweather) September 21, 2015"
If the race is indeed dry, expect the Williams duo to be battling for their fourth podium finish of the year.
A Fine Day for Force India
3 of 5
Force India, and particularly Sergio Perez, have been threatening a breakthrough result since the introduction of their B-spec car at the British Grand Prix on July 5.
Perez scored the team's best result of the season in Belgium, finishing fifth, and Japan will be another opportunity for Force India to solidify their fifth-place in the constructors' standings.
Nico Hulkenberg has a three-place grid penalty for his collision with Felipe Massa in Singapore, but Perez, at least, should be fighting for another top-five finish. If there are a few retirements among Mercedes, Ferrari and Williams, it could be even better.
.jpg?w=256 "Colts Jaguars Football")
McLaren-Honda to Score
4 of 5
I was going to predict another double-DNF, but these are supposed to be bold predictions and McLaren-bashing is very low-hanging fruit at this point in the season.
Instead, let's give the Woking boys and girls a shot of confidence. It says here that either Fernando Alonso or Jenson Button will drag their car into the top 10 for the first time since Hungary (it would really help for this prediction if someone, perhaps one of the Lotus drivers, could be a sport and take out a few cars at the first corner).
There may be no such thing as home advantage for F1 drivers, but maybe that Honda engine will get a bit of a boost from breathing familiar air.
No?
Well then we'll just have to rely on the skill of Alonso and Button—who may be nearing the end of his career, per the Telegraph's Daniel Johnson—to overcome Honda's lack of power.
Alonso did finish 10th at Silverstone, another circuit with lots of high-speed corners, so it is not an impossible task. Still, I wouldn't bet your rent money on it.
Top Rookie: Max Verstappen
5 of 5
In keeping with my colleague Neil James' tradition, it is now time to predict the top rookie for the Japanese Grand Prix.
And the winner is...Max Verstappen!
The 17-year-old will be feeling good after dropping to the back of the field at the beginning of the Singapore race before recovering to finish eighth—one place ahead of his team-mate, Carlos Sainz Jr.
Sainz has performed well this year, and has also suffered more than his share of bad luck, but it is Verstappen who has produced the most "Wow!" moments.
It should be a treat to watch him fling his Toro Rosso around Suzuka, even if the car won't be as competitive there as it has been at recent grands prix.
Verstappen's most impressive move, though, may be the one he didn't make in Singapore. The team asked him to move aside late in the race to let Sainz attempt a pass on Perez, but the teenager refused to allow his team-mate through.
Not only did the rookie have the confidence to defy his team, but he was even praised by his team principal for doing so. Per Ian Parkes of Autosport, Franz Tost said, "Max was right because Carlos was simply too far away, between three and five tenths behind."
Even then-defending world champion Vettel was forced to yield to his team-mate, Daniel Ricciardo, in Bahrain last year. But Verstappen was having none of it.
According to Parkes, Verstappen said his father, Jos, a former F1 driver, "told me if I had let him past he would have kicked me in the nuts!"
More of the same in Japan, please.
Meanwhile, Alexander Rossi was very impressive in his F1 debut last weekend, but it is hard to quantify his success when the only driver he can hope to beat is his team-mate, as they tour around a couple seconds off the pace.
Follow me on Twitter for updates when I publish new articles and for other (mostly) F1-related news and banter:
.jpg?w=480 "Colts Jaguars Football")
