5 Adjustments Indianapolis Colts Must Make in Week 2 Against the New York Jets
The Indianapolis Colts have to bounce back after a demoralizing 27-14 Week 1 loss in Buffalo.
This is a team that has been talked about as a Super Bowl contender throughout the offseason. One loss to a team like Buffalo to start the season is one thing. Two consecutive losses to start the season, both to teams without franchise quarterbacks, would be unfathomable.
Much of the improvements that must be made for Sunday include players simply executing better, but there are schematic and strategic improvements that can be made as well.
These are where we'll focus today, how the Colts can put themselves in the best position possible to get back to winning.
Let Frank Gore Tote the Rock
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The Colts didn't sign running back Frank Gore to three-year, $12 million contract to give him the ball eight times per game.
On one hand, the Colts' deficit in their Week 1 loss and a horrific matchup against a talented Buffalo front seven didn't provide ideal running conditions. On the other, the team didn't utilize Gore in the passing game enough to offset blitzing linebackers.
The Colts targeted Gore early with a screen play that looked to have a lot of room in front of him, but Luck's throw was inaccurate. Gore was never targeted again when the Bills blitzed. The Colts instead chose to use Gore as a blocker to help pick up the blitz, which left Luck with limited options to throw to quickly.
Against the New York Jets, the Colts could once again see a litany of blitzes (the Jets blitzed Johnny Manziel 50 percent of the time, according to Pro Football Focus), and Gore could be of use as an option leaking out of the backfield or in screen plays.
The Colts also have to get Gore involved on the ground more often. He averaged just 3.9 yards per carry on Sunday, but he was successful on five of his eight carries, which is an incredible ratio.* Gore might not have that kind of success against a stout Jets front, but having Sheldon Richardson miss the game with a suspension will help.
A more balanced offense will help keep the Jets from completely teeing off on Luck as well. This doesn't mean the Colts should abandon throwing the ball, or even come anywhere close to a 50-50 split. But a few more handoffs early could lead to a bit more effective balance.
*For more on Rushing Success Rates, see Football Outsiders.
Utilize More Route Combinations
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An easy excuse for the Colts' offensive struggles against the Bills was that the offensive line couldn't keep Andrew Luck upright against the blitz. Andrew Healy of Football Outsiders falls into this trap:
"The Bills brought a blitz (five or more pass rushers) on 26 of Andrew Luck's Luck’s 54 dropbacks, and a big blitz (six or more rushers) on 13 of them. The Colts' line provided little relief from the pressure, as the Bills had success blitzing throughout the game.
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Football Outsider's data had the Colts' average yards per play steadily declining as the number of Bills pass-rushers increased, so it's easy to see where the sentiment comes from. The Colts offensive line does have a certain reputation, after all.
But a quick review of the tape reveals that the problems lay elsewhere. For one, Andrew Luck was simply inaccurate on several throws, something that should fix itself without much coaching intervention. The other problem was that the Colts wide receivers struggled to get open against the Bills' tight man coverage.
As the game progressed, the Colts used fewer isolation routes and more combinations, using natural picks and bunch formations to get receivers open on quick-hitting plays. This resulted in a few long touchdown drives in the second half.
With T.Y. Hilton potentially missing time, look for the Colts to utilize more of these combination plays to get Andre Johnson and Donte Moncrief, who don't get open as easily in man coverage, open quickly.
Get Sio Moore and Nate Irving in the Mix
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All the outrage directed at the Colts during the offseason for failing to upgrade the defensive line really should have been focused on the Colts' struggles at inside linebacker.
Though Jerrell Freeman and D'Qwell Jackson are big names (Freeman for his unexpected 2012 season and Jackson for his younger exploits), their inconsistencies put the Colts in very difficult situations last season. Jackson's inability to stay with tight ends and running backs in coverage was a huge liability, and both linebackers were painfully bad against the run in high-profile losses to New England.
Against the Bills, the two stood out on film—in a bad way.
The Bills' best offensive plays often came at the expense of the linebackers. Karlos Williams' 26-yard run at the end of the first half was an especially bad example, as Freeman overshot the hole, stumbled trying to recover and tripped over his own man, allowing Williams a huge hole. The rest of the team had the Bills stood up on the play.
The Bills also had success on swing passes out of the backfield, as Freeman and Jackson couldn't get out to the flats quick enough to contain LeSean McCoy.
Now, this doesn't mean reserve linebackers Sio Moore and Nate Irving should start right away. The two are new to Indianapolis, and Freeman and Jackson are leaders of the defense in terms of communication. But Irving, and especially Moore, represent a bit more speed in the middle of the field, and it might be worth getting the two on the field for a few snaps to see what they can give.
The two combined for just one snap on Sunday.
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More Tyler Varga
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The Colts released fan-favorite Vick Ballard on Tuesday, further weakening an already thin running back position. Frank Gore will be the Colts' bell cow, but the Colts need a second back to step up and be dependable so they can limit Gore's snaps, especially on passing downs.
Enter Tyler Varga, who looked more impressive than rookie Josh Robinson on Sunday while showcasing the versatility to protect in the backfield or make plays in the open field after receptions.
Varga also deserves to get a more extended look on special teams, as he was easily the most effective kick returner for Indianapolis. On a day when Donte Moncrief stumbled out of the end zone and was tackled inside the 10-yard line and Phillip Dorsett fumbled two punts, Varga was dependable and dynamic.
"Tyler Varga (@TyVarga). Professional Football Player. Only gets to the 25, but should have been down at the 15. https://t.co/xmxDGhcf2Y
— My Colts Account (@MyColtsAccount) September 14, 2015"
Varga shouldn't completely take over for Robinson, who has potential as a runner, but he should continue to get mixed in the offense and return units.
Keep Dwayne Allen Involved
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If the Colts are moving to more of a quick-hitting offense against the Jets, especially with T.Y. Hilton out, it would be easy to hold tight end Dwayne Allen back often to help block a pesky New York front.
But Allen should continue to be a part of the passing offense. The Colts used Allen almost exclusively in three-wide receiver sets (11 personnel) on Sunday, and it wouldn't surprise if that continued. Allen has slimmed down this offseason, according to Steve Andress of Colts.com, and he can exploit open space in the middle of the field.
Against the Bills, Allen caught a 30-yard pass up the middle on a blitz-beating seam play that was called back because of a holding penalty, but the potential was clearly there. Allen later caught the Bills defense unaware on a nifty play-action play.
The Jets were 31st in the league against tight ends last season, according to Football Outsiders' DVOA, and Allen should be able to find separation against New York's inside linebackers.
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