Dodgers Grab Former Ace Mat Latos at Perfect Time

The Los Angeles Dodgers have been on the prowl for a big-name starting pitcher ahead of the trade deadline, and word is they've acquired one not named Cole Hamels or David Price.

But that's not a reason to be disappointed. The Dodgers haven't landed a big fish, but they've landed a pretty good fish.

Literally, in this case. As Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times was first to report, the Dodgers acquired 27-year-old right-hander Mat Latos from the Miami Marlins on Wednesday. The Atlanta Braves are also involved in the deal, which Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports says breaks down like this:

"If completed" is obviously a key phrase here. This deal isn't quite done yet, as you would certainly expect for such a complicated arrangement. But assuming it is completed, it's hard not to like the Dodgers' end of it.

In Jose Peraza, they're getting MLB.com's No. 30 prospect. In Jim Johnson, they're getting a reborn reliever with a 2.25 ERA. In Alex Wood and Mike Morse, they're getting two pieces that seem like fodder for additional trades. If not, Wood is a solid left-hander who can help the Dodgers in their rotation or their bullpen, and Morse is a good power bat to have off the bench.

But the real prize here, of course, is Latos. He was one of the more productive pitchers in the National League between 2010 and 2014, posting a 3.27 ERA across 901.1 innings. And down the stretch, he should resemble that guy while pitching in Dodger blue.

This may sound like a silly statement in light of how Latos has performed, as he's only managed a 4.48 ERA across 88.1 innings in 16 starts. On the whole, he's been a well-below-average starter. 

But don't focus on the whole. The more relevant perspective is on what Latos has done recently.

Latos got off to a brutal start through his first nine outings, posting a 6.12 ERA and getting knocked around to the tune of an .806 opponents' OPS. Then he went on the disabled list with inflammation in his left knee, which was the same knee that caused him to miss a big chunk of the Cincinnati Reds' 2014 season.

At that point, Latos had the look of permanently damaged goods. But since he made his comeback in mid-June, well, here's the breakdown:

Span	GS	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	Opp. OPS	ERA
Through May 21	9	42.2	7.6	3.4	0.6	.806	6.12
Since June 13	7	45.2	8.5	1.8	1.0	.577	2.96

Latos has had more of a problem keeping the ball in the yard since his return, but everything else looks good. His strikeouts are up, his walks are down, and opponents aren't whacking him nearly as much as they were before his injury. Hence, the sub-3.00 ERA.

None of this is accidental. Latos has been producing results reminiscent of his better self largely because he's been pitching like his better self.

Don Boomer/Associated Press

That shows up most in his radar gun readings. FanGraphs had him averaging just 90.6 miles per hour with his fastball before his injury, a far cry from his career average of 92.6. But he averaged 92.4 in his first start off the DL back on June 13 and has sat at 92.1 as a whole since his return.

This, as Latos didn't mind vouching, is what good health can do.

"I know what I was capable of doing," he told Frisaro after his first game back. "It's a matter of having two legs under me. Everything just felt strong."

Obviously, having good velocity isn't everything. But it definitely helps, as Mike Axisa of CBS Sports is on point in talking about what extra velocity can do.

"Velocity isn't everything but it's not nothing either," Axisa wrote. "The extra oomph gives Latos more margin for error and makes his offspeed stuff—curveball, slider and changeup, specifically—a bit more effective because hitters have to respect the heat."

As if to prove the point, Latos has been illustrating it quite nicely since his return.

For one, he's been getting more whiffs. He's gone from an 8.7 swinging-strike rate before his injury to an 11.8 swinging-strike rate after his injury. That's a mark reminiscent of the 2010 version of Latos, who authored a 2.92 ERA in part thanks to a career-best 11.2 whiff rate.

For two, Latos' improved stuff has also helped him manage contact better. Here's a look at his pre-injury and post-injury splits regarding ground balls, soft contact and hard contact:

Date	GB%	Soft%	Hard%
Through May 21	38.7	17.1	37.1
Since June 13	45.2	23.6	26.0

Latos has been getting a lot more ground balls and, not so coincidentally, been allowing less hard contact while collecting more soft contact. That last part is especially encouraging, as Latos has been inducing soft contact at a Chris Sale-like rate.

The one caveat with all this? We're only talking about seven starts, which skews toward very small on the small-sample-size spectrum. It sure would be nice if Latos had been doing his thing for longer.

Nonetheless, the point stands that Latos has been doing his thing. We're talking about a guy with a strong track record of success, and in his last seven starts, he's lived up to that track record. It's thus what he was doing earlier this season that looks like the outlier—not what he's been doing more recently.

So as long as that left knee of his holds strong, Latos should be an upgrade for a Dodgers rotation that was badly in need of something solid behind Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke. They're a better team now than they were yesterday.

And no, they're probably not done. Here's Bob Nightengale of USA Today:

The first shot the Dodgers have fired at the trade deadline has hit its mark. Now we wait for the next shot, which could totally obliterate the target.

With a little over 48 hours to go until the deadline, we'll know soon enough.

Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted/linked.

If you want to talk baseball, hit me up on Twitter.