Nationals Gambling on Jonathan Papelbon's Big-Game Past as They Eye Title Push

The Washington Nationals have struck a deal that gives them the bullpen they need to track down the World Series title that eluded them in 2012 and 2014.

Or so they hope, anyway. And quite possibly in vain.

But first, the news itself: Jonathan Papelbon is coming to Washington from the Philadelphia Phillies. Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports was the first to report as much on Tuesday morning. Todd Zolecki of MLB.com reported Double-A right-hander Nick Pivetta would be going to Philadelphia in exchange. And at long last, the Nationals finally confirmed the trade on Tuesday night.

At first glance, there's no mistaking that the Nats have upgraded their bullpen in a big way. Their relief corps has been serviceable in 2015, but now it has the potential to be great. With Papelbon joining the mix, the Nats now have as many relievers with sub-2.00 ERAs as the Kansas City Royals.

But now for the interesting part, via Rosenthal:

Rosenthal added that Papelbon's contract with the Phillies was restructured so that his $13 million vesting option for 2016 was replaced with a guaranteed year at $11 million. Evidently, $2 million is the price he was willing to pay to get his wish of playing for a contender.

"Some guys want to stay on a losing team?" the 34-year-old veteran recently asked reporters, via Ryan Lawrence of the Philadelphia Daily News. "That's mind-boggling to me. I think that's a no-brainer [to want to leave for a contender]."

So, there's that. But the real news here is the other part about Papelbon taking over as Washington's closer. That means Drew Storen has been demoted to a setup role.

Based on Papelbon's track record, that looks like an upgrade. Based on how he and Storen are pitching in 2015, however, it looks like a downgrade.

Patrick Semansky/Associated Press

Mind you, it's not impossible to view Washington's choice of Papelbon over Storen as an upgrade. Papelbon has a 1.59 ERA in 39.2 innings. Storen has a 1.73 ERA in 36.1 innings. Those are two pretty important categories, and Papelbon wins both of them. Check and mate.

But let's switch lenses and focus not on results but on the process. If we do that, there's not much of a question that Storen is actually having the better season.

We can tell by looking at a few very important things: strikeouts, walks, home runs and how Storen and Papelbon have managed contact in general. With an assist from FanGraphs, what we see is this:

Player	G	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	Soft%	Hard%
Drew Storen	38	36.1	10.9	2.2	0.3	21.4	22.5
Jonathan Papelbon	37	39.2	9.1	1.8	0.7	18.5	25.9

The one thing Papelbon has done better than Storen is limit walks. But Storen has been markedly better at racking up strikeouts and limiting home runs, and the latter is no fluke in light of how he's been better at collecting soft contact and limiting hard contact.

Given all this, Papelbon's edge over Storen in the ERA department looks undeserved. And as it happens, this is the same opinion held by Baseball Prospectus' Deserved Run Average metric. It delivers exactly what it promises, and here's how it feels the two pitchers in our spotlight have performed this year:

• Storen: 2.29 DRA
• Papelbon: 2.45 DRA

There's not a huge difference between those numbers, but there's a difference all the same. And given that the difference favors Storen, well, let's just say that the following from Adam Kilgore of the Washington Post rings true:

Indeed. But since the Nats have done what they've done anyway, it raises the following question: Why?

Well, the writing on the wall is that while Storen may be having a great regular season, his past misdeeds paint him as a reliever who can't be trusted in October. 

Here, you can take it from Joel Sherman of the New York Post:

Harsh but not inaccurate. 

Storen did blow the lead in Game 5 of the National League Division Series against the St. Louis Cardinals in 2012, allowing four runs in the ninth inning to cough up a 7-5 lead. He also blew the save in Game 2 of the 2014 NLDS against the San Francisco Giants, erasing Jordan Zimmermann's brilliant effort by allowing an RBI double to Pablo Sandoval.

Those are the main lowlights of Storen's postseason track record. But with an 8.44 ERA in six appearances, that track record looks like one big lowlight.

On the flip side, there's Papelbon's postseason track record. He's racked up a 1.00 ERA across 27 innings in 18 total appearances, and he notably didn't allow an earned run in the first 17 of those appearances. That, to be sure, is what an excellent postseason track record looks like.

But if that's the Nationals' primary motivation in swapping out Storen for Papelbon in the ninth inning, it doesn't necessarily change the notion that they're fooling themselves.

Michael Dwyer/Associated Press

As much as Papelbon looks like a big-game pitcher based on his track record, it's relevant that said track record is ancient history by now.

It's not just that Papelbon carried out the bulk of his postseason brilliance all the way back in 2007 and 2008. There's also the fact that he pulled off choke jobs in the last two big games he did pitch. He blew Game 3 of the 2009 American League Division Series, and he also infamously blew the final game of the Boston Red Sox's regular season in 2011.

Also, let's not ignore that Papelbon is a much different pitcher now than he was in those days. In that 2007-2011 window, he could blow hitters away with 95-plus. Now, he's getting by at a considerably less overpowering 91.1 mph.

On this note, you could consider Storen to be the anti-Papelbon. Whereas the latter's become less overpowering since his October heroics, the former has become more overpowering since his October flops.

After all, Storen's career-best strikeout rate hasn't come out of nowhere. He's averaging 93.8 mph with his heater, and he's also putting more trust in his slider. And as Owen Watson of FanGraphs pointed out, said slider is picking up more whiffs with increased lateral run.

Again, it's hard not to like the trade for Papelbon based on how much better the Nats bullpen looks as a whole. And to an extent, yeah, it is silly to nitpick who gets to pitch the ninth inning. The eighth and ninth are both very important innings, and any combination of Storen and Papelbon is going to leave those frames well-protected most nights.

But if Papelbon's big-game track record is the reason the Nats are trusting him over Storen as they eye a push to the World Series, they're rolling the dice. Rather than trusting Storen to continue being the awesome pitcher he's been all season, they're trusting Papelbon will somehow turn back the clock.

In the interest of total fairness, we can grant that there's a possibility time will prove the Nats wise.

For all the bad things that can be said of Papelbon's personality, there's no denying the guy is a true competitor. It could be that simply being on a contender again will get his juices flowing like they haven't been flowing in years, resulting in a string of performances reminiscent of his glory days.

If that's how it pans out, the end result could be the Nationals capturing that elusive championship. In a related story, they would have zero regrets about how they handled the Storen/Papelbon situation.

But in light of how things look now, the only thing to say to the Nats is good luck. For their gamble to pay off, they'll need it.

Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted/linked.

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