Can the Greek Freak Find Real Stardom with Milwaukee Bucks?

Fresh off a 41-win season that claimed the Eastern Conference's No. 6 seed, Giannis Antetokounmpo is pretty sold on the Milwaukee Bucks—and there's little doubt the franchise is sold on him. But the bigger question is about fit on the court, which could change the 20-year-old's thinking before long.

The Bucks are overflowing with interior talent, and something will have to give. Antetokounmpo's potential is considerable, but he probably won't discover it in Milwaukee. He enjoys operating in the same spaces that will be heavily inhabited by Greg Monroe and Jabari Parker, all but forcing the Greek Freak to become a perimeter threat. That's not where he's at his best, and—in turn—Miwaukee may not be able to offer Antetokounmpo his best chance at stardom.   

For now, however, he's smitten. His EuroHoops blog's assessment of the franchise that drafted him 15th overall in 2013 said all the right things and then some:

"

The Bucks and [general manager] John Hammond chose me in the draft, got me in the NBA, kept me in the team with a role from my very first season and they are my basketball family. Not only that, but already at this young age, they have enough faith in me as a leader and they are doing everything in order to develop all of my potential. From my side, I feel that I want to be playing in the Bucks. I'm not talking about my next contract. The way I feel now, I want to keep playing for the Milwaukee Bucks for the next 20 years!

"

The second-year pro did concede that his mind could conceivably change in two or three years, but those kinds of caveats are par for the course. The unavoidable headline here is that Antetokounmpo has fallen hard for the organization. He's contemplating a long-term commitment at least a year before he will negotiate a new contract with Milwaukee (or a competing suitor).

There's plenty to like about the enthusiasm from Milwaukee's perspective, but one wonders if the Greek Freak might be better-suited to explore other frontiers.

A Preface

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Antetokounmpo's future could be exceptionally bright, given the proper circumstances, and those circumstances may be elsewhere. That is likely an uncomfortable fact for some fans, but if the Bucks want what's best for the young forward, they may eventually have to set him free.

The argument isn't about market size or brand recognition. Antetokounmpo noted in his EuroHoops blog entry that his decision would have little to do with geographic perks:

"

I'm a guy who doesn't really care about glamour and big markets. I like to be home all day. I get up in the morning, I take a shower and I go to practice. When I'm finished, the only thing that's on my mind is to go back home and spend time with my family. I usually feel that I prefer to hide from people.

"

And we can only presume that Milwaukee qualifies as an ideal hiding spot. That's fair enough.

Nor is the argument about accolades or attention. Those things don't seem to discriminate on the basis of market size these days. Premier free agents (like Greg Monroe) know that winning can elicit all kinds of attention, even in smaller markets (like Milwaukee).

This argument is about opportunity, touches and the ability to thrive. And it's about the chance to maximize those things going forward.

On paper, Antetokounmpo figures to own the starting small forward job for the foreseeable future. He'll probably inherit a decent share of playing time as well, perhaps even more than the 31.4 minutes per game he averaged a season ago. It looks like a rosy-enough picture on its face.

In reality, it's a considerably more complicated situation.

The Case for a New Locale

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At minimum, keeping Antetokounmpo and Michael Carter-Williams on the floor at the same time may prove unsustainable. Neither can reliably shoot the three-pointer, and both enjoy initiating offense with the ball in their hands. In turn, the Bucks have functionally sacrificed floor spacing for redundant playmaking abilities, and that doesn't make much sense from an Xs and Os perspective.

All that could change if Antetokounmpo improves his range. So far, however, his demonstrated strengths are in the post and from mid-range—the kinds of things you'd expect from someone with a 6'11" frame. Here's how Antetokounmpo described his evolution to EuroHoops' Nikos Varlas in May:

"

I didn't shoot [last season] because coach Kidd didn't want me to shoot! Ultimately, this was of great help! I understood that at this stage I have to start my offensive moves from deeper in the court. Three-pointers and lay-ups I attempted mostly in my first season in the NBA.

Now I've already added a low post game and I'm at a very good level in drives. Within the season I added the mid-distance shot. Next season I'll add the three-pointer too. I don't have to start shooting a lot of three-pointers. From now on, when I'm free I'll execute. When I decide to add an element to my game and I set that as a goal, I'll manage it, without a doubt.

"

That improved perimeter game sounds great in theory but may prove more difficult in practice. Antetokounmpo made just 15.9 percent of his 44 three-point attempts last season (after making 34.7 percent of his 118 attempts as a rookie).

Season	Min	Pts	FG%	Reb	Ast	Stl	Blk
2013-14	24.6	6.8	.414	4.4	1.9	0.8	0.8
2014-15	31.4	12.7	.491	6.7	2.6	0.9	1.0

Even if the versatile forward improves from long range, there's something to be said for his explosiveness and finishing ability around the basket. Why minimize those kinds of looks?

At the moment, Antetokounmpo may be forced into perimeter duty out of necessity, an unfortunate byproduct of a front line that's gotten significantly deeper with this summer's addition of Monroe. Add a healthy Jabari Parker to the mix, and it's hard to imagine Antetokounmpo spending much time in and around the painted area—particularly with John Henson and Miles Plumlee vying for minutes off the bench.

Ideally, Antetokounmpo would land in a situation where could alternately initiate the offense and receive the ball in the post, some kind of unholy point-power forward hybrid. That kind of arrangement would make the most of his already-developed skills, and any semblance of range would make him all the more dangerous as a stretch-4 threat.

Put simply, Antetokounmpo may develop into a comprehensive inside-outside weapon, but that still starts with his impressive inside game. Remember, this guy made 64.6 percent of his field-goal attempts within three feet of the basket last season (and a fairly solid 42.3 percent of his attempts from 10 to 16 feet out), per Basketball-Reference.com:

Season	0 to 3 feet	3 to 10 feet	10 to 16 feet	16 feet to 3pt line	Beyond 3pt line
2013-14	.573	.171	.105	.220	.347
2014-15	.646	.288	.423	.393	.159

There's also a case to be made for deploying Antetokounmpo against bigger defenders and creating mismatches wherein his quickness, athleticism and handle would allow him to beat less mobile bigs off the dribble. While he can theoretically overpower smaller players, that probably isn't the wisest use of his wiry 217-pound frame.

In terms of veteran NBA comparisons, the suggestion here is that Antetokounmpo has a better chance of becoming Kevin Garnett than becoming Kevin Durant. And those KG-like skills may go to waste without ample opportunities at the elbow and in the post—where power forward types tend to do most of their damage.

The Way Forward

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Antetokounmpo's fate shouldn't hinge on how much magic head coach Jason Kidd can muster when developing rotations. Any way you slice it, this team has too many quality bigs for the Greek Freak to get really freaky. That status quo may persist for the time being, and Antetokounmpo probably won't issue any complaints.

Not yet, anyway.

As ProBasketballTalk's Kurt Helin recently put it, "Antetokounmpo will be up for an extension next summer, and you can be certain the Bucks will offer a max deal and he will take it. Considering his family and background, he is going to take the security—not just for himself, but for his family for generations—of the huge deal."

So one can only hope the organization does its part, eventually conceding that Antetokounmpo is worth more to a team with the right rotational mix. When the time is right, Milwaukee should trade him to a club that can make him a star. Meanwhile, the Bucks could land a more traditional swingman to join the sharpshooting Khris Middleton.

Alternatively, the Bucks could opt to move Parker and create space for Antetokounmpo to utilize his in-between and post games. In that event, perhaps Milwaukee could be the right home, after all.

These are deals no one wants to contemplate right now, but a lot could change after Hammond and Co. see the current roster in action. And while Antetokounmpo may appreciate his Wisconsin hiding place, he'd likely prefer a legitimate chance to actualize his varied skill set—wherever that may be.

He had that opportunity a season ago. Only time will tell when and where he rediscovers it. But chances are it isn't in Milwaukee.