10 Bold Predictions for 2015 MLB All-Star Week
Predicting an exhibition is no easy task.
There are too many outlying variables and factors to consider. While Major League Baseball’s is the only All-Star Game in which athletes play at or very near 100 percent effort—the sport does not really lend itself to playing at anything less—there are still remnants of an exhibition, such as playing as many players as possible or removing the best pitcher after a couple of innings so that he has virtually no impact on the outcome.
With all that said, no game is more fun to predict than this one, played at Cincinnati’s Great American Ball Park on Tuesday. The Futures Game is played Sunday, and the Home Run Derby happens Monday.
Rolling the events into one sphere so that the predictions spread across all three is even better. They allow for bold, fun and even absurd prognostications every year.
Brock Holt Earns MVP Honor
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Depending how and when the leagues score, the MVP can appear at any time. This year, he will show his face late.
And this year, he will be a player casual fans might not know about.
Brock Holt is a Boston Red Sox utility player, having already occupied seven positions. While doing so, he has put up a .293/.379/.418 slash line entering Friday.
Holt’s inclusion into the game seemed odd, only because he does not have a position and does not have enough plate appearances to be a qualified hitter, but there is no doubt he has produced for a disappointing Red Sox team, which has no other representation. Making his selection even more improbable was that Holt was a throw-in during the 2012 trade that also brought Boston two-time All-Star closer Joel Hanrahan from the Pittsburgh Pirates.
Holt will continue producing for the American League by playing multiple positions and providing the game-deciding hit. Let’s call it a two-run double.
Aroldis Chapman Fires Fastest Fastball Ever Recorded
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The Cincinnati Reds closer has a tattoo on his left wrist of a baseball with flames coming out of it and the number 105.1 underneath. That is the velocity of a 2011 fastball Chapman threw, the fastest ever recorded.
He will better that Tuesday.
Hyped up on adrenaline helped by the hometown Cincinnati fans on their feet for all of his pitches, Chapman will dial it up beyond 105.1 mph. The stadium gun will flash the speed, and the crowd will go berserk. The game will stop. Players on both sides will applaud in amazement.
Chapman has averaged 99.6 mph with his fastball this year, according to FanGraphs. Last season, he averaged 100.3 mph, the first pitcher to average triple digits with his fastball for a season.
As Chapman has gotten older, he has toned down his penchant for trying to top out with his heater, but this will be a special occasion. Here is betting that when he comes in, American League batters will be asking for a pinch hitter.
A Known Hall Monitor and Known Retaliator Make Things Chippy
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Punches won’t be thrown. Shoves won’t occur. Benches won’t even clear.
But this game will get chippy a little later as it stays close and the reward—World Series home-field advantage—is within reach.
Take this scenario: In the seventh inning, Baltimore Orioles star Manny Machado smokes a home run and admires it from the hitting area for longer than some in the opposing dugout like. San Francisco Giants ace Madison Bumgarner, who has built a reputation for policing when it’s not needed, will bark from the dugout. Machado will bark back. Tension thickens.
In the bottom half of the inning, Kansas City Royals reliever Kelvin Herrera, who has had his issues with retaliating this season, which led to a five-game suspension, takes it upon himself to defend Machado by plunking a Giant, either Brandon Crawford or Joe Panik. Nothing high or dangerous, but just enough to give a nod to Bumgarner.
The chirping will continue, but that will be the end of it. Still, it makes for some intrigue in a game that can have lapses throughout the night.
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Johnny Cueto's All-Star Appearance One of His Last at GABP
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Johnny Cueto is in his last days as a Cincinnati Red. Because the team is nowhere near postseason contention, Cueto, a legitimate ace, will be dealt well before the July 31 trade deadline.
In fact, once he is selected to the National League All-Star team—MLB has to find a way for him to be a part of this game—his appearance in the Midsummer Classic, which probably won’t come on the mound since he is scheduled to pitch Sunday, will be one of his final ones at Great American Ball Park.
The Reds come out of the All-Star Break with a seven-game homestand. But after that, they are on the road for six. Cueto will be gone by the time they return to Cincinnati.
He has been scouted heavily in the last few weeks, including by the New York Yankees, Baltimore Orioles, Houston Astros, Los Angeles Dodgers and San Francisco Giants.
Before the final week of the month comes around, one of those teams will have Cueto in their uniform as the Reds try to maximize their return.
Joc Pederson Is Made for the Home Run Derby
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The power is prestigious. If you haven’t noticed—many have not since Pederson plays most of his games on the West Coast—take into account that, aside from Giancarlo Stanton, the 23-year-old slugger has the longest home run in the majors this season at 480 feet, according to ESPN’s Home Run Tracker. He also has three distances in the top 18, the most aside from Stanton.
Considering length of home runs will play a factor in this year’s Derby, Pederson is already looking good.
His chances rely on more than just distance, though. Pederson’s swing does not change from batting practice to game situations. It is max effort/swing for the fences all the time, which has led to a 28.8 percent strikeout rate that is seventh highest in the majors.
For this event, however, it is perfect. Pederson does not have to change his approach and is capable of putting on a memorable show. His first time participating in the Derby will just be the start of a career that features multiple wins.
Justin Upton Becomes Hot Trade Target
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Justin Upton has been about the only part of the San Diego Padres’ offseason overhaul that has not disappointed. He is in a contract year and is performing well, with 14 home runs and a 119 OPS-plus and wRC+ at the start of play Friday.
He has not been a stellar offensive performer, but he’s been very good in a time when offense is not plentiful and is therefore coveted. That is enough for teams to start ringing Padres general manager A.J. Preller, although he might opt to keep Upton, have him refuse a qualifying offer after the season and gain a draft pick as compensation.
Because that play is on the table for Preller, he might try to drum up a bidding war for Upton. If he can, more power to him. And if he can pry a proven prospect—as proven as they can be—out of the deal, he should make it.
Whichever route the Padres go down, Upton will use the All-Star Game to show why he has plenty of value, maybe with a monster home run and an outfield assist.
Ned Yost Displays His Mound-Bound Stroll
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Thanks to the Kansas City Royals manager, the American League roster includes seven relief pitchers. There is no doubt he plans to use many, if not all, of them, as he’s had practice lifting his starters this season—Royals starters have averaged just over five innings a start this season, while the AL average is nearly six, according to FanGraphs.
Yost will be managing to win this game, because the Royals are in first place despite their starting pitching issues. With home-field advantage on the line in the World Series—which the Royals played in last year—he will not take any chances of simply giving fans what they want.
He will make whatever number of moves it takes to get his league the win.
Unfortunately for most of us watching, that means sitting through a litany of pitching changes so that guys like Brad Boxberger and Darren O’Day get favorable matchups.
A good drinking-game idea: Anytime anyone on your Twitter timeline complains about Yost’s pitching moves, drink. Also, have 9-1-1 on standby.
Anthony Rizzo Is Shut out in Home Run Derby Debut
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As so many power hitters have shown us in the past, this thing is not as easy as it looks. Anthony Rizzo, the Chicago Cubs first baseman, will find that out by being shut out in his opening-round matchup against Toronto Blue Jays MVP candidate Josh Donaldson.
After trying to take his time to gather his breath and nerves—it will be his first Derby—the newly implemented five-minute clock will run down on him before he realizes it. Then he will rush and come up empty.
He might not know what it’s like to hit a homer in the Derby, but he can take solace in making his second consecutive National League roster and being one of the best hitters in baseball. His 165 OPS-plus and 162 wRC+ are proof of that.
Astros Showcase Mark Appel as Trade Bait During Futures Game
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The ceiling on the 23-year-old right-hander (24 on Wednesday) seemed much higher at the time the Houston Astros drafted him No. 1 overall in 2013 out of Stanford, a year after he turned down the Pittsburgh Pirates as the No. 8 overall pick.
These days, it seems the Astros would be rewarded if Mark Appel developed into a solid No. 3 major league starter. In a year when several top prospects have been summoned to the majors, including the Astros, it is clear the organization does not believe Appel is ready.
His 4.26 ERA in 13 starts at Double-A and his 5.87 ERA in three starts at Single-A are some proof of that, although he ended his Double-A stint with five good starts to prompt the promotion and threw 6.2 shutout innings for Triple-A Fresno on Thursday.
Still, Appel’s value has diminished since he was drafted either time. And with the Astros seeking immediate help at the major league level, particularly in their rotation, Appel could be a player they are willing to deal for the right return.
The Futures Game, in a time when he is pitching fairly well, could be his showcase.
Yankees Prospect Aaron Judge Nearly Hits One out of the Stadium
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Aaron Judge was one of the first pieces of the Yankees’ farm-system rebuild that started a couple of years ago. He was taken 32nd overall out of Fresno State, and he came with a reputation for hitting the long ball.
A 6'7", 275-pound frame lends itself to that kind of asset.
It has followed him to the pros. He hit 17 home runs last year in 563 plate appearances, plus four more in 106 during the Arizona Fall League. This season, he hit 13 in 361 plate appearances entering Friday.
He will display that power during the Futures Game by launching a ball deep into the second deck in left field at Great American Ball Park. Judge is a right-handed hitter, so it won’t leave the stadium the way it would if he were a lefty. But there will be no mistaking the impressiveness of the feat.
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