NASCAR at Kentucky 2015: Complete Preview and Prediction for Quaker State 400

After the wild finish at Daytona this past Sunday, things don’t necessarily get any easier at Kentucky Speedway, the site of Saturday night’s Quaker State 400.

At 1.5 miles long, Kentucky is arguably one of the hardest—and harshest—tracks on the circuit. When I say harshest, I mean the racing surface itself, which is so rough that it presents one of the toughest challenges in NASCAR.

Plus, this is somewhat of a mystery race, as NASCAR will implement a brand-new aero package and rules. Simply put, that means what has worked in the past for drivers at Kentucky will likely not work Saturday. In fact, Saturday’s race will essentially be the first time the Sprint Cup circuit has visited the 1.5-mile track in Sparta, Kentucky.

With a significant reduction in downforce, harder tires having to deal with the rough and abrasive racing surface, and only a limited amount of data collected from past races to help shape race strategy, things have the potential to be very different at this year's race.

Frankly, don’t be surprised if a driver who normally isn’t in the headlines winds up winning this one—it’s that wide-open.

By the Numbers: Kentucky Speedway

Quaker State 400

Place: Kentucky Speedway

Date: Saturday, July 11

Time: 7:30 p.m. (ET)

TV: NBC Sports, 7 p.m. (ET)

Radio: Performance Racing Network, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio

Distance: 267 laps, 400.5 miles (1.5-mile oval)

Defending winner: Brad Keselowski

Youngest winner: Kyle Busch on July 9, 2011 (26 years, two months, seven days)

Oldest winner: Matt Kenseth on June 30, 2013 (41 years, three months, 20 days)

Youngest pole winner: Brad Keselowski on June 28, 2014 (30 years, four months, 16 days)

Oldest pole winner: Dale Earnhardt Jr. on June 30, 2013 (38 years, eight months, 20 days)

Most wins: Brad Keselowski (two)

Most poles: Four drivers (one each)—Kyle Busch, Dale Earnhardt Jr., Matt Kenseth, Brad Keselowski

Most race starts at Daytona: 28 different drivers (four each)

Most laps led: 346 (Brad Keselowski)

Race record: Brad Keselowski 145.607 mph (June 30, 2012)

Qualifying record: Brad Keselowski 188.791 mph (June 28, 2014)

Best average start: DNA (must be a minimum of five races)

Best average finish: DNA (must be a minimum of five races)

Track Notes

• Total number of races at Kentucky to date: four
• Total number of different pole winners in Kentucky history: three
• Races won from pole: two
• Race record: Brad Keselowski, 145.607 mph (June 30, 2012)
• Qualifying record: Brad Keselowski, 188.791 mph (June 28, 2014)
• Number of race winners at Kentucky: three

Statistical information provided by NASCAR Media Relations.

Key Storylines

Garry Jones/Associated Press

One Last Try for the Bucket List: Kentucky Speedway is the only current track that Jeff Gordon has never won at in his career. Of course, he’s only had four tries, and Saturday will be his fifth and last attempt to win there. It’s a 1.5-mile track, which is in Gordon’s favor. Plus, in his previous four starts at Kentucky, he has one top-five and three other top-10 finishes, so he is certainly capable of winning there. 

Bad Brad is Good Brad: In four short years, Kentucky Speedway has become one of Brad Keselowski’s favorite racetracks, with two wins and one other top-10 finish in Sprint Cup competition. He also has two wins, six top-five and seven top-10 finishes in seven career Xfinity Series races there. Look for Keselowski to be dominant again this weekend, especially since he only has one win so far this season. Kentucky would be a great place for win No. 2 of 2015.

Keep Beating the Drum for Tony: We’re going to keep touting Tony Stewart for a win until the season ends. Admittedly, his record at Kentucky is so-so; in four races, Stewart has placed 12th, 32nd, 20th and 11th. But Stewart is going to have to break out of his ridiculous slump sooner or later. Why not at Kentucky? 

The Countdown Continues: There are now nine races left for drivers who remain winless in 2015 to visit Victory Lane and qualify for the Chase for the Sprint Cup.

Among those with a zero in the “W” column are Jeff Gordon, Jamie McMurray, Kasey Kahne, Paul Menard, last season’s runner-up Ryan Newman, Clint Bowyer, Aric Almirola, AJ Allmendinger, Kyle Larson, Greg Biffle, Danica Patrick, Austin Dillon, Casey Mears, David Ragan, Tony Stewart, Sam Hornish Jr., Ricky Stenhouse Jr., Justin Allgaier and Cole Whitt.

Listless Logano: Much like his Penske Racing teammate Brad Keselowski, Joey Logano has been consistent this season, but is lacking in wins. Keselowski won a series-high six races last season, while Logano was right behind with five. Thus far in 2015, Keselowski has just one win, as does Logano. Keselowski kicked off his run to six wins at Kentucky last season (it was his second win of the year). Logano also began his run to five wins (after one win) after Kentucky. Will history repeat itself on Saturday?

Drivers to Watch

Derik Hamilton/Associated Press

Martin Truex Jr.: Truex is coming off two terrible finishes at Sonoma and Daytona, the latter costing him dearly as he slipped from second to fifth in the standings. He now sits 87 points behind series leader Kevin Harvick. What better place for him to rebound than on a 1.5-mile track like Kentucky?

Jimmie Johnson: Much like his Hendrick Motorsports teammate Jeff Gordon, Jimmie Johnson has his own bucket list of tracks he's yet to win at. The list is now down to four: Chicagoland, Watkins Glen, Homestead-Miami and Kentucky. Johnson has been close in each of the four previous Cup races there, with one top-five and three other top-10 finishes. Can he break through Saturday if Gordon doesn’t?

Kyle Busch: Putting Kyle Busch on a 1.5-mile track is playing to his sweet spot. Busch is still a long way off from reaching the top 30 and becoming Chase-eligible. And now with just nine races to go, he has to do everything in his power to accomplish just one thing: win as many races as possible. For each additional win, it gives Busch the maximum number of points needed to ultimately reach his goal. He already has one Cup win at Kentucky. Could it wind up being two on Saturday?

Carl Edwards: Much like teammate Kyle Busch, Edwards likes 1.5-mile tracks with lots of character (translation: lots of bumps). Unfortunately, he has just one top-five finish in four starts there. After his terrible finish at Daytona, Edwards needs to bounce back in a big way, and Kentucky would be a great place for him to do just that.

Clint Bowyer: Bowyer has been so far off the radar this season that he’s close to becoming a “Whatever Happened To That Guy?” question. In 17 starts this season, the Kansas native has just one top-five and five other top-10 finishes.

Favorites

Garry Jones/Associated Press

Busch Brother No. 1: Kyle Busch loves racetracks like Kentucky. They may be a handful to drive on, but that’s the way the younger Busch brother likes it. If he can cut 20 or more points off the margin he needs to reach the top 30 by Richmond, it would be a huge step in the right direction.

Busch Brother No. 2: Older Busch brother Kurt is just like his younger sibling, in that he also likes rough-and-tumble tracks like Kentucky. In fact, it would not be overly surprising to see Kurt and Kyle battle each other for a one-two finish. While Kurt is already locked into the Chase, a few more wins would help elevate his position in the Chase seeding.

Jeff Gordon: The only track he has yet to win at on the Sprint Cup circuit, Kentucky Speedway would give Jeff Gordon the best going-away present possible by willing him to a win in Saturday’s race. One victory stone would kill two birds: Gordon would not only get the elusive career win, but it would also all but guarantee his spot in this year’s Chase.

Kevin Harvick: He’s very comfortable atop the Sprint Cup point standings, has two wins thus far and looks like a very strong candidate to potentially win a second consecutive championship. But Harvick could help his Chase seeding with at least two more wins between now and Richmond.

Jimmie Johnson: How can you not include Jimmie Johnson when this week’s race is at a 1.5-mile track, especially one with this many bumps and “character"? Johnson has never won at Kentucky, but with four top-10 finishes in as many starts there, he is a win waiting to happen.

Dark-Horse Pick: Kyle Larson

Terry Renna/Associated Press

It’s time for Kyle Larson to finally earn his first career Sprint Cup win.

While his sophomore season has not gone as well as his rookie campaign, Larson has been, and continues to be, a win waiting to happen.

He likes tracks that are especially challenging and play to his loose style of driving; Kentucky Speedway is a perfect place for that.

And the Winner Is: Kurt Busch

Bob Brodbeck/Associated Press

While I definitely want to see Jeff Gordon win, I’m also a realist. After picking Gordon to win the last two races, it’s time to go with another driver—and that driver is Kurt Busch.

He appears reinvigorated after some early-season personal issues. And a happy and reinvigorated Busch is a winning Busch.

The elder Busch brother has two top-10 finishes in his four starts at Kentucky. He'll make it three on Saturday. 

Follow me on Twitter @JerryBonkowski