Setting Realistic Expectations for Each Indianapolis Colts Rookie

Rookies represent the best and worst about the NFL's offseason hope, and for the Indianapolis Colts, that's no different.

The Colts have relied on rookies for much of the Andrew Luck era, with good and bad results.

The reliance on Luck and the 2012 class has resulted in one of the most talented offenses in the NFL, with Luck, T.Y. Hilton and a pair of talented tight ends leading the way. A poor 2013 class led to a decaying pass rush and a still-in-shambles offensive line. The team hopes that encouraging seasons from Jack Mewhort and Jonathan Newsome in 2014 can help reverse that trend going forward.

Now, the Colts look to the class of 2015. The biggest value in a draft class is long-term, not simply rookie-year contributions, but the Colts still hope an impactful class can help propel the team on a Super Bowl run.

But what can we realistically expect from these rookies?

WR Phillip Dorsett

Brian Spurlock-USA TODAY Sports

Ceiling: 60 receptions, 800 yards, 5 touchdowns

Floor: 25 receptions, 300 yards, 2 touchdowns

When looking at comparable receivers to Phillip Dorsett, it's important to keep a few things in mind.

First, keep in mind Dorsett's size and speed. Per my own research back in May, there have been 10 other receivers drafted in the top 50 measuring 5'10" or shorter and weighing 190 pounds or less.

Compared to those 10 receivers, Dorsett fit the average measurables in almost every category. He was slightly faster than average for top small receivers, timing in at 4.33 seconds in the 40-yard dash (4.37 was the average).

Second, let's look at the production of those 10 receivers.

On average, those 10 receivers produced 560 yards in their rookie season, with DeSean Jackson and Eddie Royal each eclipsing 900 yards. Sinorice Moss was the only one to earn less than 200, finishing the year with just 25 yards. Unsurprisingly, the small receivers didn't produce many touchdowns in their rookie years, averaging 2.8 touchdowns. Titus Young had the most touchdowns with six in his rookie year.

Of course, some of those receivers were put in different situations. In some, those guys were asked to be top targets right away, something that Dorsett won't face in Indianapolis. In others, they played with bad quarterbacks, an area where Dorsett is very blessed.

We shouldn't project Dorsett to have a high usage rate given Indianapolis' wealth of talent. But Dorsett should be fairly efficient given his talent and the offense that he's been thrust into. Thus, I'd project him to finish right in between our "ceiling" and "floor."

Donte Moncrief finished last season with 32 catches for 444 yards and three touchdowns. Hakeem Nicks finished with 38 catches for 405 yards and four touchdowns. Dorsett should eclipse them both, but not by a wide margin.

Final Projection: 35 catches, 550 yards, 3 touchdowns

CB D'Joun Smith

Julio Cortez/Associated Press

Ceiling: 16 games played, 4 games started, 40 tackles, 2 interceptions

Floor: 8 games played, 0 starts, 10 tackles, 0 interceptions

Projections for D'Joun Smith are tricky, because while we know that he'll likely see the field as a third-round cornerback, he's also stuck at fourth on the depth chart.

It's very likely that Smith sees the field a decent amount. Of 159 cornerbacks taken in the last 10 drafts, 108 of them played in at least 10 games, per Nate Dunlevy of Colts Authority. Even as the fourth cornerback, Smith should receive a healthy amount of playing time. 

Whether or not he gets more playing time, and more production, will be determined more so by injuries than by his performance. Darius Butler is the Colts' slot cornerback, and he's solid. The Colts won't be benching him anytime soon. If the top three corners are healthy, as they mostly were in 2014, Smith will be stuck in a depth role. Josh Gordy had 284 snaps in that role last season, per Pro Football Focus.

But the Colts cornerbacks have had a history of injuries. Vontae Davis has missed 11 games over the last four years. Greg Toler has missed 12 in the last three seasons and missed the entire 2011 season. Butler has missed seven games in the last four years.

So even if there aren't any catastrophic injuries, the minor dings could lead to a few starts for Smith, especially if he plays well and the coaches feel confident enough in him to let the veterans take their time healing.

Final Projection: 14 games played, 2 starts, 25 tackles, 1 interception

DL Henry Anderson

David J. Phillip/Associated Press

Ceiling: 500 snaps, 25 tackles, 4 sacks, 30 pressures

Floor: 100 snaps, 10 tackles, 0 sacks, 5 pressures

It would be easier to give third-round pick Henry Anderson a higher ceiling for his rookie season if the Colts didn't seem so high on recently signed Kendall Langford. Personally, I think Anderson will catch up to Langford at some point and overtake him, but right now it seems set in stone that Langford will start the season as the entrenched starter.

One of the things that Anderson was expected to do as a rookie was contribute on passing downs, where he can best use his disruptive, penetrating nature. But Colts head coach Chuck Pagano says that Langford has shown some pass-rush ability in the offseason.

“Kendall Langford, you guys are going to be surprised,” Pagano told Phillip B. Wilson of Scout.com. “You think we just brought in a run-stopper, but he’s shown in some of these 11-on-11 drills that he’s got some pass-rush capabilities, will get push inside.”

Best-case scenario, Anderson still overtakes Langford midway through the season and becomes a starter, becoming one of the league's most disruptive rookie interior defenders. This is what analysts like Sam Monson of Pro Football Focus envisioned when they hyped him up this offseason.

If Anderson can't overtake Langford, he'll still see the field as the main backup 5-tech defensive end, but he'll be limited in how much he can actually produce.

Final Projection: 350 snaps, 20 tackles, 2 sacks, 20 pressures

S Clayton Geathers

David J. Phillip/Associated Press

Ceiling: 16 games played, 10 starts, 45 tackles, 2 interceptions

Floor: 8 games played, 0 starts, 5 tackles, 0 interceptions

Geathers is a very interesting case at safety, simply because the Colts don't have entrenched (or particularly young) starters. Mike Adams wins a starting role, but he is 34. Dwight Lowery will likely start in the other slot, but has been a backup and journeyman for his career.

While he was only a fourth-round pick, Geathers could end up supplanting Lowery as the starter, or he could simply play special teams all season. Remember when the Colts needed a starting safety to emerge in 2006? Antoine Bethea started 14 games as a rookie and had 66 tackles.

So, the variance on potential seasons for Geathers is very high. The most likely scenario, of course, is somewhere in the middle.

The Colts have been using Geathers as a nickel linebacker in offseason team activities and minicamp, and he drew some very positive attention, according to Mike Wells of ESPN.com. Chuck Pagano even said he'd exceeded the team's expectations.

If Geathers doesn't win the starting safety role in training camp, it looks like he will still get a decent amount of snaps as a situational player as well as on special teams.

Final Projection: 12 games played, 2 starts, 20 tackles, 1 interception

DL David Parry

Julio Cortez/Associated Press

Ceiling: 300 snaps, 15 tackles, 10 run stops, 2 sacks

Floor: 50 snaps, 3 tackles, 0 run stops, 0 sacks

A rotational defensive lineman is difficult to predict exactly, especially one selected in the fifth round of the NFL draft. David Parry, from Stanford, will be hoping to split time with Josh Chapman at nose tackle.

The last time that the Colts had two nose tackles splitting time, Chapman and Aubrayo Franklin combined for 583 total snaps, per Pro Football Focus. If Parry legitimately gets to Chapman's level, in the coaches' eyes, 300 snaps is definitely a possibility.

Obviously for a fifth-round pick, there is always the possibility of flaming out, as well.

But the real wrench in all of this is Montori Hughes. A fifth-round pick in 2013, Hughes is massive at 6'4", 350 pounds. But he's also particularly mobile for someone his size, and as such, the Colts have played him both at nose tackle and defensive end in their 3-4.

If Hughes is playing nose primarily in 2015, that could significantly limit Parry's opportunities. There is also Zach Kerr, who can play the nose.

Final Projection: 150 snaps, 8 tackles, 5 run stops, 1 sack

RB Josh Robinson

Michael Conroy/Associated Press

Ceiling: 150 carries, 700 yards, 4 touchdowns, 35 receptions, 300 receiving yards, 4 receiving touchdowns

Floor: 10 carries, 40 yards, 5 receptions, 45 receiving yards

The Colts selected Josh Robinson in the sixth round of the NFL draft, but his draft position isn't necessarily a reflection of the action he'll see as a rookie.

Having struggled to find a workhorse back in recent years, the Colts signed Frank Gore in the offseason, the picture of a bell cow back in the last decade. But while Gore will receive the lion's share of the carries in 2015, his presence doesn't spell doom for the other backs on the roster.

Gore, after all, is 32. Even if he doesn't get hurt, the Colts will look to spell him whenever possible. With Andrew Luck and the passing offense building big leads early and often against a relatively soft schedule, the Colts may have a lot of second-half rushing attempts available for Robinson and Daniel Herron.

Robinson is also a relatively talented sixth-rounder, ranking second in the country in Pro Football Focus' Elusive Rating last season.

Still, it will be difficult for Robinson to carve out a significant role in time to accumulate a large amount of carries. During the team's OTAs and minicamp, it was Herron who was the clear second back behind Gore, as Kevin Bowen of Colts.com put it.

While there's definitely a chance that Robinson gets a large chunk of carries, it will be an uphill battle.

Final Projection: 50 carries, 225 yards, 2 rushing touchdowns, 10 receptions, 100 receiving yards, 1 touchdown

LB Amarlo Herrera

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Ceiling: 16 games played, 250 total snaps, 25 tackles

Floor: Doesn't make the final roster, practice squad player

Sixth-round linebackers are usually limited to special teams play and occasional spot duty, which will make it difficult for Herrera.

The Colts already have two entrenched starters in D'Qwell Jackson and Jerrell Freeman, so Herrera is fighting for a depth spot at best. If Nate Irving, the free-agent signing from Denver, is healthy, he figures to have a stranglehold on the third linebacker spot.

So really, Herrera will be fighting for the fourth (and likely final) inside linebacker spot with Henoc Muamba, who was signed out of the CFL last offseason. Muamba has a leg up on Herrera in terms of experience and comfort in the defense, although he played mostly a special teams role last season.

Right now, I project Herrera to win the spot, but even if that happens, he likely won't be seeing the field on defense often in 2015.

Final Projection: 8 games played, 100 total snaps, 10 tackles

OT Denzelle Good

Ceiling: Makes the team as a reserve tackle, plays in two games

Floor: Cut from the team, placed on practice squad

The possibilities for Good are fairly straight forward. We know that he's a project player, an incredibly raw athlete from a university (Mars Hill) that most fans have never heard of.

Good isn't supplanting Anthony Castonzo or Gosder Cherilus anytime soon. Even if Cherilus isn't healthy, the Colts have a plethora of options better than a seventh-round rookie (Joe Reitz, Jack Mewhort, Todd Herremans).

The best-case scenario for Good is simply getting onto the team and playing in a couple of blowouts.

Fortunately for Good, the worst-case scenario isn't much worse. Even if Good is terrible in training camp and the preseason, the Colts will likely try to groom him by placing him on the practice squad. Even if he suffers a serious injury, the team will likely keep Good around on injured reserve as they try to develop him for the future.

Final Projection: Cut from 53-man roster, placed on practice squad