Indianapolis Colts Offseason State of the Union
Every NFL team faces a time of optimism and great hope during the offseason, to some extent. Every team, barring a significant retirement or major injury (especially to a quarterback), wants to believe that it got better over the offseason.
Read any coach, general manager or owner’s comments over the summer. You’ll never read, “We definitely got worse this offseason, but we’ll try our best!”
Everything is positive, and that’s understandable.
But for the 2015 Indianapolis Colts, things are realistically more positive and upward-trending than they have been in years. With Andrew Luck’s continued development, an influx of high-profile free agents and rookies that excite on a number of levels, this version of the Colts is poised to be the best of the Andrew Luck era, even better than the team that reached the AFC Championship Game last season.
It’s a good thing the team’s improved, because while the team reached the penultimate game last season, the Colts suffered a humiliating loss at the hand of the New England Patriots, something that’s become somewhat of a trend over the last few years. The team’s improved, but is it enough?
Passing Offense
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A team’s passing offense is mostly determined by its quarterback, and the Colts are in good hands there. Andrew Luck reached new heights in 2014, reaching top levels of volume matched with solid efficiency numbers.
While a quarterback would ideally produce super-efficient numbers, total production is the key in today’s NFL. The Colts placed the world on Luck’s shoulders in 2014, and he carried the load with aplomb, leading the NFL in touchdowns and finishing third in total passing yards while finishing in the top 10 in most efficiency metrics.
The biggest area for Luck to improve upon in 2015 is turnovers. The fourth-year quarterback has shown a remarkable ability to make incredible plays, but there are times when he must concede the play rather than forcing a pass or holding onto the ball too long. Luck’s 21 turnovers were the second-highest total in the league last season, and while his interception rate is generally respectable, improvement there (and especially in fumbles) would go a long way in his development.
Fortunately, Luck should have a supporting cast that allows him to force plays a little less often in 2015. It’s the strongest group of receivers he’s had in his career, with a legitimate No. 1 threat (T.Y. Hilton), a savvy veteran possession receiver (Andre Johnson), a dynamic slot receiver (Phillip Dorsett) and a versatile threat both down the field and after the catch (Donte Moncrief). That doesn’t even begin to look at depth receivers like Duron Carter, Vincent Brown and Griff Whalen, all of whom will be competing for the final receiver spots on the roster.
Then there are the tight ends, as Coby Fleener and Dwayne Allen return. Together, the two make for a versatile duo the Colts can throw into a multitude of situations. If Allen can stay healthy, the Colts will be terrifying to defenses, simply in the sheer amount of differing sets and formations the team can utilize.
The running backs should be a big part of the offense as well for Indianapolis, as Frank Gore and rookie Josh Robinson join the Colts. Both of the new backs and returning rusher Dan Herron are dependable in the passing game, a factor that Luck knows how to take advantage of. Ahmad Bradshaw was a nightmare for defenses out of the backfield last season, and Herron had 20 catches in the postseason.
One tries not to let fanhood get in the way of analysis, but it’s hard not to have a giddy anticipation for the Colts’ passing offense in 2015.
Rushing Offense
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To say the Colts have struggled to produce a consistent run game over the last three years would be an understatement.
In 2012, the Colts had their worst offensive line in years, with players like Seth Olsen, Samson Satele, Mike McGlynn and Winston Justice making up four-fifths of the offensive line. In 2013 and 2014, the team had its worst running back in years, with former third overall pick Trent Richardson becoming one of the biggest busts of the last few years.
It’s difficult to express just how much Richardson held the offense back in the last two years, but the numbers are a good place to start.
In 2013 and 2014, Richardson compiled 977 yards on 3.1 yards per carry, while the other Colts backs that received significant carries (Donald Brown, Ahmad Bradshaw, Dan Herron) gained 1,532 yards on a 4.8 yards-per-carry average over that same time. The Colts offensive line still is not good, but it’s good enough to provide room for a decent running back, especially when paired with the threat of the Colts’ dynamic passing offense.
The addition of Frank Gore and rookie Josh Robinson, coupled with the release of Richardson, should create a radical improvement in the team’s overall rushing numbers. This may result in a more balanced offense as the Colts attempt to lift some of the weight off of Andrew Luck’s shoulders.
The team doesn’t need an elite rushing attack to be a strong offense; this isn’t Seattle, San Francisco or Cincinnati. But the Colts do need a more dependable rushing attack—even just average or slightly above—to be able to stay consistent against strong coaching staffs and defenses, especially in the playoffs.
Run Defense
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The Colts run defense has fallen apart against the New England Patriots in each of the last three meetings, which has created an extreme reputation—and not in a positive way.
Sure, the run defense is a concern, but it’s not the historically ineffective unit that the national perception has made it out to be. The Colts finished 19th in run defense DVOA last season, per Football Outsiders, with a few key crumblings bringing down a defense that was otherwise fairly respectable.
But those key crumblings are exactly what the team needs to remove. Being able to shut down the Tennessee Titans and Jacksonville Jaguars is all fine and dandy, but if it’s followed up by 200-yard games against playoff teams, there’s no point.
The biggest way the Colts can improve in this area in 2015 is through health and improved consistency. Arthur Jones is a key figure here, having missed much of last season with a variety of injuries. The consistency should be improved for a few key developing players, such as Montori Hughes and Zach Kerr, but it certainly isn’t guaranteed.
The additions of Kendall Langford and rookie Henry Anderson will be key at the 5-tech position, and their transitions may determine how the run defense develops over the course of the season.
The linebackers will be key here as well. The Colts inside linebackers were the biggest contributors to the inconsistencies last season, as Jerrell Freeman’s injuries and D’Qwell Jackson’s age resulted in some volatile week-to-week performances, especially in the playoffs. This is where newly acquired Nate Irving could come into play, as he has starter-level talent when healthy and could push for a bigger role once recovered from torn knee ligaments.
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Pass Rush
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In examining the Colts’ troubling defensive inconsistencies over the last few years, I recently came to the conclusion that the single most important factor in the Colts’ ups and downs has been the pass rush. When the defense has gotten pressure (and sacks) on the opposing passer, the team has won. From my in-depth look earlier this offseason:
"Since 2012, the Colts have not won a single game against playoff teams when they have just one or fewer sacks, going 9-11 overall. With multiple sacks, the Colts are 27-7 overall (third-best win percentage in the league) and 12-3 against playoff teams (fourth-best).
This is the single biggest key for Indianapolis defensively.
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The Colts have not taken this situation lightly this offseason. The team added aging, yet effective veteran Trent Cole in free agency, signed underrated pass-rusher Kendall Langford on the defensive line and drafted disruptive defensive lineman Henry Anderson in the third round of the 2015 draft.
The team also hopes to get stalwart Robert Mathis back from an Achilles tear that cost him the 2014 season, as well as continued development from Jonathan Newsome and Bjoern Werner.
While Werner’s chances of developing into a viable pass-rushing threat are diminishing, Newsome was a very bright spot for the Colts last year. Not only did he lead the team in sacks as a rookie, but he also led all rookie edge-rushers in sacks with 6.5. Only interior lineman Aaron Donald, on a stacked St. Louis defensive line, earned more sacks in 2014.
Now, that’s not to say the Colts will have a good pass rush in 2015. It was very inconsistent in 2014, and it relied too often on scheme and complicated blitzes. More individual success in basic sets will be key for the Colts in 2015, putting less pressure on the secondary and giving experienced quarterbacks fewer chances to exploit coverages.
Secondary
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For the third consecutive season, the Colts will return its top three cornerbacks, with Vontae Davis, Greg Toler and Darius Butler all coming back to the “No Fly Zone.”
The three complement each other well, and while it’s not the most talented secondary in the league, the Colts have a fairly reliable group at the top.
It starts with Davis, who was one of the league’s best cornerbacks in 2014 and earned himself his first Pro Bowl berth. Davis landed in the top 10 of Pro Football Focus’ annual Top 101 list, and was 59th in NFL Network's NFL 100. Davis probably belongs somewhere between those two numbers, in reality, but there is no question that he is worth the $36 million contract he signed last offseason and is one of the top corners in the league.
The Colts also drafted a corner in the third round of the NFL draft, taking D'Joun Smith out of Florida Atlantic. Smith is another developmental guy, but he has the athletic ability and mental makeup to be a star. He likely won't be a big contributor in 2015, barring injury, but he'll give the Colts options at the end of the year as Toler's contract winds down.
The question marks in the secondary come at safety, a trend that has gone on far too long in Indianapolis. Mike Adams earned a Pro Bowl berth as an alternate last season by being a reliable tackler and savvy coverage man, but he can’t cover as much ground as he once could. If his body holds up, he’s still a reliable starting option.
Next to him is a more significantly gaping hole. Dwight Lowery was added in the offseason, but he’s a career backup and journeyman, a better safety-net reserve than a starter. The team did add safety Clayton Geathers in the fourth round of the NFL draft, and he may push Lowery for playing time, but he’s more of a developmental guy than a plug-and-play starter.
Special Teams
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In October, Pat McAfee told Bob Lamey of Colts.com that the special teams unit was aiming to be the "greatest of all time" last season, something that's not out of character for the outspoken punter.
But while McAfee's aim may be a little high, you have to be optimistic about the Colts special teams as long as Adam Vinatieri's legs hold out. His legs looked fine in 2014, hitting 30 of 31 field goals, including all three of his attempts from 50 yards or longer. He's been Mr. Reliable for the Colts, and that should continue.
The heart and soul of the special teams unit, however, is McAfee.
McAfee was named to his first Pro Bowl last season, finishing with the third-best net average in the league. He was also one of just two punters to have 30 or more punts downed inside the 20 compared to just three or fewer touchbacks. Then you have kickoffs, where McAfee led the league in touchbacks. Throw in a perfect three-for-three successful onside kicks (the most onside kick recoveries in the league last year), and you have one of the top two or three punters in the league, if not the best.
The rest of the special teams unit is key for all of this success, of course, including long snapper Matt Overton, who recently signed a four-year extension. Colt Anderson and Dewey McDonald are key special teamers returning this year, although their spots on the roster are not guaranteed.
Coaching
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Coaching is hard to predict in the NFL.
You want to believe that every coach is going to get better each year, but it's easy to forget that the improvement is relative to the rest of the league. Add that to the fact that coaches are incredibly difficult to measure given the different personnel and situation that each staff has to work with, and you have some sticky situations.
The Colts coaches have been inconsistent in recent years, and 2014 was no exception.
The coaching staff did a very admirable job for the most part. The offense reached new heights as offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton unleashed Andrew Luck in a downfield attack. The defense actually played reasonably well given the available personnel, in large part due to scheme, as the coaches drew up some well-timed blitzes to get pressure on opposing quarterbacks.
Overall, head coach Chuck Pagano was more aggressive and strategic, choosing to go for three successful onside kicks and going for two points on three occasions (tied for eighth in the league).
But that staff was inconsistent as well.
Hamilton couldn't solve Bill Belichick's defense, as the Colts scored 27 points in two combined matchups. Defensive coordinator Greg Manusky and his staff saw some defensive stinkers and had some questionable personnel decisions. Pagano's squad looked unprepared for a few big games, and he got particularly outcoached by Belichick.
Those inconsistencies will be scrutinized by pundits, but overall, it's hard to hate on the job this coaching staff has done. The team made a few minor changes for 2015, including hiring Jim Hostler to coach the wide receivers and moving Charlie Williams to running backs coach, but the core is the exact same. If they can continue to develop and become more consistent, it could be the next step the Colts need to make a Super Bowl run.
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