The Biggest Reason Each 2015 Top-10 NBA Draft Pick Could Bust

Not every upper-echelon 2015 NBA draft pick is destined for greatness.

In fact, if history tells us anything, there's a chance that one or two lottery prospects will turn out to be busts—or huge disappointments at the very least.

This year's top tier of talent features some electrifying playmakers and fascinating big men. But at the same time, it's a group of young prospects who are largely unproven. It's nearly impossible to accurately chart where they'll land in the Association's hierarchy.

Almost every top-10 pick has a chance to become a bust or fall miles short of expectations, so we broke down how each of them could potentially find this gloomy fate. We're not saying this draft class is particularly prone to busting, but in the event that it happens, what does the basement look like?

Jonathan Wasserman's Big Board

The following 10 players are likely to go in the top 10 because of their overall draft value and how they fit with the top 10 lottery teams. See above how B/R draft expert Jonathan Wasserman's current top 10 compares to this one.

10. Myles Turner, Texas PF (7'0", Freshman)

Eric Gay/Associated Press

How He Could Bust: Becomes too perimeter-oriented; athleticism/running deficiencies fester

Myles Turner showed off a nice mid-range shooting touch during his one-and-done campaign at Texas. His pick-and-pop upside is an attractive feature that helps drive his draft appeal.

If Turner doesn't improve his ability to drive to the rim and assert himself on post-ups, however, his offensive role will shrink. More than 76 percent of his field goals were away from the basket last year, according to Hoop-math.com. The fear is that he becomes a 7-footer who can't consistently convert close-range opportunities.

The other possible obstacles that could derail his potential are his running and athleticism. Keith Langlois of Pistons.com explained Turner's predraft preparations in that department:

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To allay concerns about an awkward running stride, Turner – at the behest of agent Andy Miller – went through a battery of evaluation tests since his college season ended at the Hospital for Special Surgery in New York. In a nutshell, tests found weaknesses in certain leg muscles and Turner is working to both strengthen those muscles and alter his stride – something Pistons therapist Arnie Kander has addressed for years in players who come to the team.

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It may not be a colossal red flag, and Turner said he's doing exercises and yoga to improve his form, per CBSSports.com's Sam Vecenie. But the fact that his leg muscles and running motion are a topic of discussion indicates there's concern about potential injuries or his athleticism never improving.

Big men and leg issues don't often mix well, so Turner's NBA suitors are hoping he doesn't become the next injury-prone lottery pick.

9. Stanley Johnson, Arizona SF (6'6", Freshman)

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How He Could Bust: Offense/shooting doesn't translate or develop

Due to his smarts, athleticism, strength and competitiveness, Stanley Johnson's odds of busting are slim to none. However, he could fall well short of expectations and fail to live up to lottery status, and the culprit would be his offensive repertoire.

Johnson was able to execute a lot of tasks for Arizona, including some facilitating and a solid 37.1 percent clip from beyond the arc. But the jury is still out on his offense because scouts aren't sold on his jump shot. There's no guarantee his mechanical, low release will translate to the big stage.

"The way he shot the ball in his workouts really scared people," one NBA scout told Bleacher Report's C.J. Moore. 

The other area that could pull down his overall value is his effectiveness in traffic around the bucket. Despite his athleticism and strength, Johnson was a relatively underwhelming scorer near the basket at Arizona.

He shot 52.7 percent at the rim, per Hoop-math.com, and that includes wide-open dunks or layups. That number is usually reserved for undersized guards. Does he have the adroitness to create his own shot and counteract top-tier NBA defenders?

Johnson is an unlikely choice to flop. His only chance of disappointing is a failure to smoothly create and make shots.

8. Kristaps Porzingis, Latvia PF/C (7'1", 1995)

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How He Could Bust: Doesn't improve interior play; becomes one-dimensional shooter and shaky defender

Like many tall, slender shooters before him, Latvian prodigy Kristaps Porzingis runs the risk of being a perimeter gunner who's a liability in most other areas. Thanks to his wiry frame, undeveloped post skills and weak defense, the 7'1" teenager has arguably the biggest bust potential of any lottery prospect.

Several unproven international big men have failed as risk-reward experiments in recent years, or at least fallen light-years short of expectations—think Darko Milicic, Nikoloz Tskitishvili or former No. 1 overall pick Andrea Bargnani. There's a chance Porzingis could follow in their footsteps.

Porzingis' floor may not be on par with Milicic or Tskitishvili, but his failure to become versatile may set him on Bargnani's career path.

Bargnani's shooting fluidity and scoring talent were evident early in his career, but he has never played a strong enough brand of hoops to maximize his length. And he has also floundered as a stopper, posting negative defensive box plus/minus margins every year of his career.

Porzingis' current weaknesses are similar. He's not yet strong enough to play stout post defense or rebound, and his scoring production is largely jumpers or dunks. If he doesn't adequately address these deficiencies and expand his game, he could be headed toward Bargs-esque mediocrity.

7. Mario Hezonja, Croatia SG/SF (6'8", 1995)

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How He Could Bust: Attitude/chemistry issues derail development

Blessed with a hyper-athletic 6'8" frame, a gorgeous shooting stroke and plenty of handles and smarts, Mario Hezonja has all the makings of a standout swingman. The only thing that could disrupt his talented future is located between the ears.

Those who have scouted him extensively notice that he often exhibits a poor attitude if things aren't going well. His body language and interaction with teammates and coaches needs to improve. DraftExpress.com's Matt Kamalsky explains:

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... One of the more significant ongoing concerns about Hezonja is his demeanor. His body language is poor at times and he seems to get down on his teammates. Though he's become far less demonstrative than he appeared at the junior level, it will be fascinating to watch how his swagger, ego and unlimited self-confidence fit in on whichever team opts to draft him...what kind of growing pains will he experience early in his NBA career?

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If Hezonja lands in a less-than-ideal situation and doesn't feel like he's being utilized properly, he could react adversely. Some of his selfish tendencies from Europe may resurface, and he could struggle to establish a secure role in the league.

Bleacher Report's Adam Fromal notes how Hezonja's confidence is a double-edged sword:

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While (his brashness) may make the transition from Barcelona to the Association easier for him, it could also have the opposite effect, leading him to take on too much responsibility early in his career and shoot his way into a hole he can't dig his way out of.

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For the sake of entertaining basketball and electrifying swingmen, here's hoping Hezonja avoids this scenario and blossoms into a star.

6. Willie Cauley-Stein, Kentucky C (7'0", Junior)

David Richard/Associated Press

How He Could Bust: All defense, no offense, subpar rebounding

Thanks to his rangy, versatile defensive tools and talent, Kentucky's Willie Cauley-Stein will always have a role in the league as a stopper.

However, he could still disappoint as an overall prospect and make his team regret picking him high in the lottery. Cauley-Stein's offense is a huge question mark, and he's not as dominant a rebounder as you would hope from such an athletic specimen.

The big fella's low-post scoring skills are limited, even after three years at Kentucky. If it's not a wide-open hook shot, lob or put-back, he's not converting it. His shooting motion has improved over the past year, but it's not quick enough to be consistent yet.

If WCS doesn't expand and streamline his offense, it will not only hinder production, but it will decrease his role in an increasingly spacing-/shooting-oriented league.

Rebounding is another area that could put a dent in his value. Cauley-Stein is clearly explosive enough to grab a bunch of caroms every night, but he didn't always show that at Kentucky. He didn't consistently carve out space to attack the glass, and the result was a pedestrian 17.0 career defensive rebounding percentage.

"For all of his offensive deficiencies, Cauley-Stein's poor defensive rebounding may be the worst part of his game," Ed Isaacson of NBC Sports tweeted.

He's often compared to guys like Tyson Chandler and DeAndre Jordan, but what if he's an underwhelming version of them? If so, he wouldn't be worth a top-10 pick.

5. Justise Winslow, Duke SF (6'6", Freshman)

Bob Leverone/Associated Press

How He Could Bust: Handle and creativity don't expand; becomes inefficient three-and-D bench player

Justise Winslow might not translate into the versatile NBA player many are projecting, and he could even struggle for a while to be as multidimensional as he was in college.

Everyone set the bar sky-high for him after his do-it-all performance in the NCAA tournament. He owns the tools to reach that rung, but it won't be easy. A huge part of Winslow's success at Duke came via athletic and physical superiority, and that won't be enough for him to star in the NBA.

His bust scenario involves meager development as a ball-handler and shot-creator. Winslow had trouble generating mid-range opportunities and hitting pull-up jumpers, and he could face a small offensive role if he can't upgrade those areas.

In the event that Winslow can't regularly create for himself and teammates off the bounce, he'd become a peripheral offensive player.

As someone who could only hit catch-and-shoot threes and enjoy the occasional straight-line slash, he'd be the fourth or fifth offensive option on the team. That might make him dispensable enough to come off the bench, which is not what his top-five lottery suitors have in mind.

4. Emmanuel Mudiay, China PG (6'5", 1996)

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How He Could Bust: Plays erratic at point and fails to develop jumper

Emmanuel Mudiay's draft appeal stems from his electrifying playmaking potential. The former SMU commit who opted for the Chinese League has a strong, long frame with top-tier agility and handles.

Even though he can slice through defenses and shows noticeable pick-and-roll talent, the 19-year-old is unproven in many areas. While his ceiling looks like a dynamic blend of Jrue Holiday and John Wall, his floor is mediocrity.

Mudiay hasn't yet proved he has a strong command of his outside jumper. Spotty mechanics resulted in 34.2 percent from three-land and 57.4 percent from the charity stripe during his 12-game CBA stint.

Upside & Motor international scout Rafael Uehara explained how Mudiay's iffy shooting would harm his team:

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The biggest concern is his ability to space the floor. Mudiay isn’t any sort of threat from outside the paint at this stage of his career. If he doesn’t develop, he’ll take away his team’s flexibility to play an offense where he doesn’t monopolize possession or otherwise limit their ceiling, similar to what we are seeing with Rajon Rondo in Dallas and Michael Carter-Williams in Milwaukee.

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In addition, Mudiay has loads of room to grow as a decision-maker and caretaker of the rock. He coughed up 4.1 turnovers per 40 minutes in China, and there's a possibility he could become a turnover-prone, middle-tier floor general like MCW or Tyreke Evans.

3. D'Angelo Russell, Ohio State PG (6'5", Freshman)

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How He Could Bust: So-so athleticism prevents him from creating separation, finishing and defending

There's nothing to dislike about D'Angelo Russell's ball skills, combo-guard versatility and feel for the game. Ohio State's breakout lottery candidate lit up the Big Ten by deftly dishing the rock and splashing jumpers from every spot on the court. More often than not, the teenager made things look easy.

He may not have such an effortless path through the NBA. His mediocre athleticism could pose some problems, and it's imperative for him to adjust. 

Russell has enough shiftiness to shake defenders for step-backs and pick-and-roll plays, but his horizontal burst and vertical explosiveness are relatively unimpressive. If he doesn't master the fine points of counteracting elite athletes, he won't be a dangerous guard. Defenses will be able to pressure his facilitating and shooting space without fear of him burning them.

On the other end, Russell's lack of juice could be even more problematic. He didn't display exemplary foot speed or agility as a backcourt stopper, and his duties are about to become trickier in the NBA.

Russell's bust scenario is a jumper-happy point guard who's a liability on defense. That's certainly not top-three material.

2. Jahlil Okafor, Duke C (6'11", Freshman)

Ellen Ozier/Associated Press

How He Could Bust: Mediocre defense; below-the-rim offense; lack of shooting range

Duke anchor Jahlil Okafor is not a lock to star in the NBA. In fact, he's not even one of the safest picks in the draft, despite his low-post brilliance and top-three draft stock. In a league that increasingly values speed, versatility and shooting, Okafor is a risk to become a one-dimensional player.

Chief among his questionable attributes is defense. Okafor moves pretty gracefully from end to end for his size, but he doesn't seem to have the quickness or instincts to make swift adjustments as a defender.

Slashers and post men of all shapes and sizes blew past him and jumped over him last year, and Okafor looked even more out of sorts when he had to defend pick-and-rolls. There's a reasonable chance he could be an unsightly weak link for his team in this phase of the game.

While his offensive outlook is much rosier, it's not without cracks. Okafor may have trouble scoring over the NBA's most athletic 7-footers because he doesn't get much lift on his drives. And his production could be limited if he can't shoot outside of 12 feet. Lastly, Okafor will be a late-game nuisance for his team if he can't shoot substantially better than 51 percent from the charity stripe, which is what he posted in 2014-15.

While Okafor won't be a complete flop, he could disappoint by becoming a worse shooting version of porous defender Al Jefferson.

1. Karl-Anthony Towns, Kentucky PF/C (6'11", Freshman)

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How He Could Bust: Jack of all trades, master of none

It takes a wild imagination to dream up a scenario where Karl-Anthony Towns' career goes up in flames, so let's not go there. He's almost certainly not going to be a bust. The only thing that could truly sabotage his career is injuries.

So what is his realistic worst-case scenario, and what would fuel it?

The Kentucky product enjoyed several stretches of low-post success against SEC foes, and he's displayed an impressive shooting touch during predraft workouts. Towns also lorded over the paint as a rim protector for most of the season.

These two-way traits indicate the potential for two-way versatility, but they don't guarantee stardom. He's still a youngster who's unproven at the next level. If Towns can't expand his back-to-the-basket game or translate into a knock-down shooter from distance, he'll be key role player. 

Sure, that's not an awful worst-case scenario at all; there's nothing wrong with being a rock-solid role player. But that would be quite disappointing considering his lofty draft placement.