Corey Liuget Has Much to Prove to Justify Huge Payday from San Diego Chargers

He has talent, he’s young, and he was set to become a free agent in 2016, so the San Diego Chargers re-signed defensive end Corey Liuget, the team announced.

It’s a five-year deal worth about $50 million with $30 million in guarantees, per Ian Rapoport of NFL.com. The deal makes Liuget the fourth-highest paid 3-4 defensive end in the league with the second-most guaranteed money behind J.J. Watt of the Houston Texans.

Unlike safety Eric Weddle, the Chargers made Liuget a priority re-signing. Unlike quarterback Philip Rivers, Liuget was willing to engage with the team on a new deal. Unlike Weddle and Rivers, Liuget still has to justify his huge payday.

The Chargers are taking a gamble that their 25-year-old defensive end will become a top-five player. It’s never a bad idea to pay for future performance instead of past performance, but the Chargers front office is taking that stance to an extreme this offseason.

General manager Tom Telesco and his staff have taken a hard-line stance with Weddle to the point that they didn’t even exchange contract numbers with his agent, per Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune. That’s despite Weddle being a top-five safety for years, a leader in the locker room and a willing participant on special teams.

There’s no doubt Liuget has been the most consistent performer in the Chargers’ front seven since he was drafted, but that’s also not saying much. He has 18 career sacks, or roughly 4.5 per season. Only 13 defensive linemen will make more per year on average than Liuget, but 48 have more sacks than he does since 2011.

Player	Sacks	Team Average Run D Rank
J.J. Watt	57.0	11
Calais Campbell	30.5	16
Cameron Jordan	29.0	23
Corey Liuget	18.0	16

If the numbers are correct, Liuget’s new contract will be in the same range as Calais Campbell of the Arizona Cardinals and Cameron Jordan of the New Orleans Saints. Since Liuget came into the league in 2011, Campbell has 30.5 sacks and Jordan has 29. Jordan is also just 25 years old.

According to Michael Gehlken of the San Diego Union-Tribune, the Chargers believe Liuget can take his game to a Pro Bowl level. They had better hope he can, or they may come to regret giving him an early extension to keep him from testing free agency.

“He will do whatever it takes to get better and help the team,” head coach Mike McCoy told the team’s official website. “And he’s still improving. There’s no limit to how good he can be. He has a lot of great football ahead.”

That may all be true, but it’s worth wondering if the Chargers were desperate to get a deal done because they’ll need the franchise tag for Rivers next offseason. As the best player on the defensive line, the Chargers couldn’t afford to lose Liuget, and a deal with Rivers before next season seems unlikely at this point.

“I guess things could change, but with all the uncertainty in many aspects, I don’t see it changing before camp gets here, and when camp gets here I’m even more certain to play it out,” Rivers told Acee in March.

Perhaps paying Liuget more now so the Chargers can keep both him and Rivers will be worth it down the line. Liuget has shown flashes of being a great player, so it could be a worthwhile gamble. For the Chargers it probably comes down to Liuget, who they know, versus a random free agent next year, who they don’t know. If the Chargers feel like Liuget is going to get better and would have been more expensive in free agency next year, then it made sense to strike a deal now.

That, or Liuget is a talented player who may never put it all together, and the Chargers are making a mistake. He’s been in the league for four years and has yet to truly break out. If he can’t improve significantly, the Chargers will be paying Liuget like a top defensive lineman when he has been, according to neutral observers, average.

Year	Grade	Pass Rush Productivity	Run Stop %
2014	25/47	15/45	12/49
2013	37/45	19/45	40/45
2012	8/34	12/31	14/34
2011	29/32	19/32	28/29

Last season, Liuget graded out as the 25th out of 47 players at 3-4 defensive end, according to Pro Football Focus. His best season was in 2012 when he finished eighth out of 34 players, but he was 37th out of 45 in 2013 and 29th out of 32 his rookie year. That’s a career-average finish of 25th out of roughly 40 players at 3-4 defensive end.

While the Chargers are happy with Liuget’s performance and believe he can get better, there are clearly dissenting opinions on his performance. One reason for that could be that the talent around him has been poor, but it’s also not as if he’s a wide receiver with a bad quarterback.

Defensive ends are productive despite poor supporting casts all the time. Some, like Ryan Kerrigan in Washington, have an even harder job than Liuget when it comes to offenses chipping them with running backs and tight ends.

What Liuget does have going for him is that he’s not a one-dimensional player. He’s an equally good pass-rusher as he is a run defender, which adds to his value, especially if he can improve.

He finished ninth in Pro Football Focus’ pass rush productivity and seventh in run-stop percentage in 2014. Only 16 3-4 defensive ends qualified at 60 percent playtime in both categories, and Liuget’s ranking was near the middle in both. He doesn’t have a glaring weakness that would keep him from taking the next step.

With the big contract will also come more responsibility for Liuget. He’ll need to take on more of a leadership role on defense, especially if the team lets Weddle walk after the season. Liuget recently co-hosted a charity dodgeball event where injured rookie linebacker Denzel Perryman’s participation landed him in hot water with the team.

Liuget probably wasn’t keeping close tabs on Perryman’s injury, but he needs to make sure his teammates are being smart going forward. That includes being smart when they go out or when they jump around at a charity event. Nothing can derail a career or a season faster than injuries, especially those that happen off the field.

The Chargers gave Liuget a lucrative contract; now he must prove that he’s worth it with performance that quiets his critics. He’ll have to take the next step to make the Chargers look like visionaries instead of dolts.

Unless otherwise noted, all contract information via Over the Cap. Statistics via Pro Football Reference and Pro Football Focus (subscription required).