2008 NFL Preview: AFC South

The AFC South was among the most competitive divisions in the NFL in 2007.

The Colts finished with the second best record in the AFC at 13-3. The Jaguars were one of the hottest teams in the NFL to close the season, and won an epic playoff game in Pittsburgh. The Titans made the playoffs as the AFC’s sixth seed.

Finally, the Texans had their first .500 season in the history of their franchise. With so many talented teams, the AFC South figures to be a slug-fest again in 2008. 

Here is how I see the 2008 season playing out in the AFC South.

1) Jacksonville Jaguars

'07 Record: 11-5
Points Scored: 411 (sixth)
Points Allowed: 304 (10th)
Playoff Result: Lost in Divisional Round
2008 Strength of Schedule: 143-113 (.559) (third in NFL)

Strengths: The 2007 Jaguars looked to be in disarray before Week One even began. The first-team offense was not performing in the preseason, and Jack Del Rio decided that the Jaguars needed to go in a different direction at quarterback. He released Byron Leftwich and turned the quarterback reigns over to David Garrard. 

Garrard responded by posting the third-highest QB rating in the NFL with a 102.2. He threw an amazing 18 touchdowns to just three interceptions.

While the Jaguars started slowly with a 5-3 record, they won six of their last eight games. They became the first team to win two games in Pittsburgh in the same season, including their epic 31-29 victory in the NFL Wildcard Round. The Jaguars played the Patriots tough in New England, but ultimately fell to them 31-20.

While Garrard played at a very high level, the strength of the Jaguars' offense was clearly the running game. Fred Taylor rushed for 1,202 yards and earned his first Pro-Bowl appearance, as he was selected as the alternate. 

Maurice Jones-Drew also had a solid campaign, rushing for 768 yards and racking up 407 receiving yards. He also had nine rushing touchdowns. That combo gave the Jaguars the second-most rushing yards in the NFL, second only to the Minnesota Vikings.

The Jaguars also did very well on defense. They finished 11th in rushing yards allowed, 15th in passing yards allowed, and 10th in points allowed. Jacksonville allowed less than 20 points in 10 of their 16 contests. They also ranked fourth in the NFL with 20 interceptions, and ninth in sacks with 36.

However, they weren’t able to generate that same production against the more explosive offenses in the NFL. The Patriots, Colts, Steelers, and Saints were able to torch the Jaguars. Those teams averaged 30 points per game in six contests.

If the Jaguars are going to make the jump to the elite level of the NFL, they will have to force more turnovers and sacks on defense against the elite NFL offenses.

Weaknesses: The Jaguars had two main weaknesses in 2007. First, their receiver production was unacceptable. Earnest Wilford led the receivers and tight ends in receptions with 45. Dennis Northcutt led the receivers and tight ends with 629 yards. That production is not acceptable from a NFL receiving core.

David Garrard should be better just from having completed his first season as the Jaguars No. 1 guy. The Jaguars also made a number of improvements in the receiving corps. 

They allowed Ernest Wilford to go to Miami, and replaced him with Jerry Porter, who looks for a fresh start coming from Oakland. They also acquired Troy Williamson from the Minnesota Vikings.

Neither receiver has been productive in recent years due to the quarterback situations they’ve had with their respective clubs. Jerry Porter has proven he can put up good numbers if given a solid quarterback. Williamson has proven nothing, other than that he can drop balls while in the open. 

If either of those guys can emerge as a go-to target, Reggie Williams can duplicate his 10 touchdown catches from 2007, and TE Mercedes Lewis can continue to improve, the Jags should be able to generate more offense in their passing game.

Regardless, the Jaguars had big guys at receiver that didn’t possess breakaway speed. Adding Porter and Williamson was huge in the fact that it gives them a speedier and a more diverse receiving corps.

The other area the Jaguars needed to improve defensively was putting pressure on the quarterback. The Jags had 36 sacks, which ranked ninth. That is a little misleading, however. 

Their leading sacker on defense, Paul Spicer, recorded eight sacks. Also, consider that the Jags recorded 16 fewer sacks than the league-leading New York Giants, but recorded only five more sacks than 19th-ranked New Orleans Saints. There was not a lot of separation from 10 through 20 in terms of quarterback sacks as you can note.

Furthermore, Jacksonville must improve in that area if they want to compete against the elite offenses in the NFL. If an elite quarterback is allowed unlimited time in the pocket, he will destroy the best coverage units in the NFL.

In 2007, the Jags just didn’t have that one player on their defense that offensive coordinators spent time game-planning against to keep away from their quarterback.

They made plugging that hole their No. 1 priority in the NFL draft. They moved up to the eighth pick in the draft and selected Derrick Harvey. They also selected Quentin Groves out of Auburn. He is a player that can play both defensive end and linebacker. Both players should help the defensive front put pressure on Peyton Manning and the other elite quarterbacks on their schedule. 

The Jaguars will need those players to contribute immediately to make up for the losses of Marcus Stroud, Grady Jackson, and Bobby McCray. Also, don’t be surprised if the Jaguars continue to pursue Jason Taylor via a trade. There is clearly a riff between Taylor and the Dolphins’ front office, and while a trade will not be as easy to make as prior to the draft, I would not rule that move out. He would be a huge addition to the Jag’s defensive line.

Prediction: I think this is finally the year the Jaguars put everything together. Fred Taylor is 32-years old, but has not been worn out in recent years with the emergence of Jones-Drew. He should still have another couple of good years left in him. The two form one of the premier running-back duos in the NFL.

I expect David Garrard to be more effective in his second year as the full-time starter. It will also help him to have Jerry Porter. Porter has a lot of talent and needed a change of scenery. While he alone doesn’t make this one of the top-receiving units in the NFL, he doesn’t have to. It just needs to have the respect of the NFL defenses. They have more speed this year, and should be able to stretch defenses and gain more yards through the air.

The fact is that the Jaguars had a good offense last year. They averaged 30.4 points per game in their last 10 games of the season, and averaged 25.5 points per game in their two playoffs games. This team has come a long way since 2005, when they averaged 22.6 points per game, and were held to three points in their wildcard loss to New England. Garrard gave them another dimension in the passing game, and should benefit from having started a full season. This is his first offseason knowing that he has the job.

The key for this potential change at the top of the division was what the Jaguars accomplished in the postseason, and what they did in the draft. This is a team that needed to do well in the postseason to prove to themselves they could play with the top powers in the AFC. They beat the Steelers in Pittsburgh, and played the Patriots tough in New England. The one thing they came away with was that they needed to put more pressure on the QB. That was addressed this offseason, even though they didn’t acquire Jason Taylor.

I didn’t like the fact that they gave up seven picks to get their two top picks. In the long run, that could come back to haunt them and could be key for the Baltimore rebuilding effort. What I did like is that they added two players that can put pressure on the quarterback, and will have a solid system and players to help them do that. These guys don’t need to save the defense. They need to use their strengths to put them over the top.

The Jaguars do have a tough schedule in terms of last year’s winning percentage, but some of that is deceiving. I think they made a lot more improvements than Tennessee and Houston. They don’t have to play the Patriots or the Chargers, two teams the Colts face. They draw Denver and Buffalo instead. The NFC North is a division with some question marks. Brett Favre's retirement means the Packers are probably not a 13-3 team in 2008, and while the Vikings appear to be on the rise, the Lions and Bears have a lot of questions. While Pittsburgh and Cleveland will offer challenging games, Baltimore and Cincinnati should not be very difficult.

What this means is that I think Jacksonville is in position to unseat the Indianapolis Colts as division champs. Furthermore, I look for them and New England to have the best records in the AFC, with the Jags winning the Conference’s No. 1 seed.

Jacksonville Jaguars' Record: 13-3—AFC South Divisional Champion; AFC No. 1 Seed

2) Indianapolis Colts

'07 Record: 13-3
Points Scored: 450 (third)
Points Allowed: 262 (first)
Playoff Result: Lost in Divisional Round
2008 Strength of Schedule: 152-104 (.594) (second in NFL)

Strengths: The Colts have been a powerhouse on offense since 1999. Other than 2002, the Colts have ranked no worse than fourth in points scored and no worse than fifth in yards gained. The leader of the offense since 1998 has been Peyton Manning. He has posted a 4,000-yard passing season eight of his first 10 seasons in the league, and has posted consecutive 31-touchdown-pass seasons in 2006 and 2007. 

Last season was the first season where he failed to break the 100.0 rating since 2003. He still had a solid 98.0. His first 10 years in the league have been as productive as any quarterback in the history of the NFL.

The Colts have always had great wide receivers. Last year Marvin Harrison was injured for most of the season. Reggie Wayne stepped to the forefront as the team’s No. 1 wide receiver. He posted 104 catches for 1,510 yards and 10 touchdowns. Dallas Clark also had a stellar year, with 58 catches for 616 yards and 11 touchdowns.

Joseph Addai added balance to the running game with 1,072 yards rushing and 12 rushing touchdowns to go with his 41 receptions for 364 yards and three receiving touchdowns. WR Anthony Gonzalez showed promise as a rookie. The Colts may need a bigger contribution if Marvin Harrison’s legal problems spill into the regular season. 

While that situation is bizarre, at this point it does not appear to be a major issue, given Marvin’s strong track record in regards to personal conduct and the information from the investigation that has been made public. I am much more concerned that Marvin Harrison is turning 36-years old and coming off an injury-plagued season. He must show that the injuries that plagued him in 2007 are behind him.

The Colts have excellent depth at running back. Kenton Keith had a solid year filling in for Addai, and Dominick Rhodes is back with the Colts after playing for the Raiders last season. He is familiar with the offense, and should provide good depth behind Addai.

Unlike their 2006 Super Bowl season, when the Colts ranked 23rd in points allowed, 21st in yards allowed, and 32nd in rushing yards allowed, the 2007 Colts were one of the best defensive units in the NFL. The 2007 Colts ranked first in points allowed, third in yards allowed, and 15th in rushing yards allowed. Bob Sanders was named the NFL Defensive Player of the Year. The Colts defense ranked second in interceptions with 22.

Weaknesses: The Colts are a veteran roster that has won 12 games or more every year since 2003. That is an amazing accomplishment. Still, they do have some question marks headed into the 2008 campaign.

The Colts were not able to put a lot of pressure on the quarterback last season. Their twenty-eight sacks ranked 26th in the NFL. Part of that was due to the season-ending injury suffered by Dwight Freeney in the Patriots game. If he is able to comeback healthy, the Colts should be able to improve in that department. 

Still, the Colts are a small defensive unit that is built for speed over strength. They have to rank in the top part of the league in sacks if they are going to justify being that small. If they are giving up a lot of rushing yards and failing to register sacks, that is not a good combination.

Losing Jake Scott was also a big loss. He has started 16 games at guard every year since 2005. Not only did they lose him, but also they lost him to a divisional rival in Tennessee. The Colts did a good job at replacing the retired left tackle Tarik Glenn with Tony Ugoh last season. They will need to do the same thing this season.

The other area the Colts need to worry about is depth at the receiver and tight end positions. Ben Utecht was lost to the Cincinnati Bengals. Bryan Fletcher will have to assume a bigger role in 2008. Other than Harrison and Wayne, the Colts lack proven talent at wide receiver. Gonzalez and Moorehead will have to step up their contributions in 2008, especially if Harrison is not at full strength.

The Colts did not have a first-round pick, so they were not able to upgrade any of those areas in the draft with a top prospect. They will need to do what they have been so good at since 2003. They need to improve from within and hope that they hit some home runs in the later rounds of this year’s draft.

Prediction: I think the Colts’ window is slowly starting to close. Drafting so late since 2003 will do that to any team. They are in good shape at running back, and while Peyton Manning is 32-years old, he is showing no signs of slowing down. Marvin Harrison is starting to get up there in age, Tony Dungy appears to be nearing the end of his coaching career with the Colts, and it is uncertain that the Colts have the talent in place on defense to maintain their stellar showing last season.

The other difficult thing for the Colts is the second-toughest schedule in the NFL. It is brutal. They play the Patriots, Chargers, Steelers, and Jaguars twice. Those are five of the toughest games you could ask for. They also face Green Bay, Minnesota, Cleveland, and Tennessee twice. Those teams aren’t nearly as good as the first list, but still very formidable opponents.

I think the Jaguars are closing the gap, and the main difference between the clubs was Peyton Manning. While the Jaguars are never going to be better than the Colts in that regard, I think they have closed the gap significantly, and are poised to overtake the Colts in a very competitive division. That said, the Colts are extremely talented on offense, and have a good enough defense to win a lot of games. I think the Colts still get to 12 wins this season, and secure the top wild card position.

Indianapolis Colts' Record: 12-4—AFC South second Place; AFC No. 5 Seed

3) Tennessee Titans

'07 Record: 10-6
Points Scored: 301 (22nd)
Points Allowed: 297 (eighth)
Playoff Result: Lost in Wildcard Round
2008 Strength of Schedule: 139-117 (.520) (tied for ninth in NFL)

Strengths: The Tennessee Titans were a surprise team in 2007. Despite adding little talent at the skill positions, and having an offense that struggled to score points, Vince Young was able to manage the offense in only his second year. Behind a defense that was very stingy against the run, the Titans won 10 games and sneaked into the playoffs on the last day.

That good fortune was partly the result of the Bengals upsetting the Browns in Week 16, and partly the result of the Colts resting all their players on the final game of the season. Regardless, the Titans progressed very well in year two of the Vince Young era, and played San Diego tough in the wild-card round. They belonged on that stage.

The Titans allowed only 92.4 rushing yards per game, which ranked fifth in the league. A major reason for that was Albert Haynesworth. He is currently the team’s franchise player, and has yet to work out a long-term deal with the club. A training camp holdout may be in the future. 

This is big for the Titans, because they are not the same team without him. They gave up over 30 points a game in Weeks 10-13, including 35 points to the Cincinnati Bengals. All three games were losses and almost kept the Titans out of the playoffs.

The Titans also ranked 10th in passing yards allowed at just 199.2 passing yards allowed per game. They were excellent at putting pressure on the quarterback with 40 sacks, which ranked seventh in the NFL. If Javon Kearse can stay healthy, he should help them increase that number in 2008. Their 22 interceptions tied the Colts for second in the NFL.

On offense, the Titans had an excellent rushing attack. The Titans ranked fifth in rushing yards, led by LenDale White’s 1,110 yards rushing and seven rushing touchdowns. 

Jake Scott was an excellent signing at guard that could help them open up even bigger holes in their running attack. It will be interesting to see how speedster Chris Johnson will fit into the Titans rotation. They also have another speedster, Chris Henry, who saw limited time in 2007.

Weaknesses: The one weakness that the Titans struggled with was the passing game. That was the main reason the Titans ranked 22nd in the NFL in scoring. Vince Young had a very poor season in that regard, ranking 26th in QB rating with a 71.1.  His nine touchdown passes tied for 24th in the league. His 17 interceptions tied him for seventh place, despite the fact that he only threw 382 passes. 

Jon Kitna led the league with 20 interceptions, but threw the ball 561 times. Young threw an interception once every 22.5 pass attempts. While he is a great leader, and has all the intangible things needed from a star NFL quarterback, he has to improve his passing numbers if the Titans are going to advance deeper in the playoffs. 

Part of that problem was the targets that Vince Young had in 2007. Roydell Williams and Justin Gage were their leading receivers. They both had 55 catches. Gage got the better in receiving yards with 750 to 719, while Williams had four touchdown catches to Gage’s two touchdown catches. Quite a few teams got better production out of their No. 3 receiver. If Vince Young is going to take the next step, the Titans have to get some playmakers around him.

The problem is that they didn’t add any playmakers. I thought the Titans did very well in free agency, but failed to upgrade their receiving corps in the draft. If the Titans fail to improve on their 2007 season, I think they will look back to their failure to add playmakers in the draft. 

The best receiver they added was Lavelle Hawkins, who the Titans selected in the fourth round out of California. The transition from college to the NFL is very tough for a receiver, and it is doubtful he will make a huge impact in his first season.

Prediction: The Titans have a very difficult road in 2008. The Jaguars made numerous improvements in the draft and free agency, and the Colts still possess a very high-powered offense. The Titans went 2-2 against those teams in 2007, and it is difficult to see a lot of improvement in that record in 2008. They also play Pittsburgh and Cleveland, which could be tough as well.

I messed up the prediction on this team last year because I didn’t respect their defense and running game enough. I picked them to finish under .500 and last in the division. The Titans are among the best in the league in those areas, and that should be enough to win a lot of games. They were able to win without a potent passing game in 2007, and I am not going to let that fool me in 2008.

That said, I don’t see how they did enough to pass Jacksonville and Indianapolis and as the sixth seed. They finished tied with Cleveland in 2007, so it isn’t like they had much room to spare. Cleveland has made a lot of improvements in the offseason. I think the Titans finish 9-7 in 2008, and fight it out with Cleveland for that last playoff spot. This season, I think the Browns get the better end of that deal. 

Tennessee Titans' Record: 9-7—AFC South third Place; No Playoffs

4) Houston Texans

'07 Record: 8-8
Points Scored: 379 (12th)
Points Allowed: 384 (22nd)
Playoff Result: N/A
2008 Strength of Schedule:140-116 (.543) (tied for sixth in NFL)

Strengths: Imagine how the Colts would have done in 2007 had Joseph Addai missed 11 starts, Marvin Harrison seven starts, and Peyton Manning had missed five starts? That is what happened to the Texans with Matt Schaub, Ahman Green, and Andre’ Johnson missing exactly that many games.

Now, I’m not saying that the Texans trio is on par with what the Colts have in Indy. What I am saying is that the Texans did very well to score 379 points, and finish 12th in the NFL in scoring, despite having their starting quarterback, No. 1  receiver, and No. 1 running back missing significant time. When you combine that with the division they play in, it is amazing that they finished 8-8.

If the Texans are going to compete in this division, they are going to have to keep those guys healthy. That is going to be a difficult task. Andre’ Johnson has already had offseason knee surgery, and will not be participating in team practices before training camp. Ahman Green is 31-years old, and has not been consistently healthy, or effective, since 2004. 

The Texans addressed their running-back depth in the draft by signing Chris Brown from the Titans, and selecting Steve Slaton in the draft. While Brown’s stock dropped this year, he is going into a perfect zone-blocking system for his abilities. Still, the Texans ranked 22nd in rushing yards gained in 2007. If all three can stay healthy, the Texans have a good rotation, and should be able to improve on that number. 

On defense, the team is still improving. Mario Williams had 14 sacks in his second season, and is still 23-years old. Amobi Okoye had 5.5 sacks as a rookie defensive tackle, and is just 21-years old. Those two are developing into what could be a dominant defensive line for years to come. 

Demeco Ryans played in his first Pro Bowl, and is quickly becoming a solid middle linebacker. He is just 24-years old. If their young defenders continue to progress, they should be able to improve on their 22nd-ranked scoring defense soon.    

Weaknesses: The Texans have a number of areas in which they need to improve. They have a lot of good parts, but they need them to perform better in terms of the production they get from their units.

Take the pass rush, for example. As I said earlier, Williams and Okoye are an excellent tandem. But the Texans recorded only 31.0 sacks, which ranked them tied for 21st. That means those two combined for 63 percent of the team’s sacks.

They have to get more sacks from the rest of their defensive line and linebackers. That lack of pressure also explains why the Texans finished tied for last in interceptions with 11. They drafted Antwaun Molden, and Dominique Barber to help improve the secondary. 

The receiving game is another example. Johnson was only five catches off the team’s lead in receptions. He had 60 receptions and Kevin Walter had 65. He led the team in receiving yards (851), and receiving touchdowns (eight), despite missing seven starts with a knee injury. They need to get more production out of their other receivers.

The offensive line is also a big concern. That was the main motivation for drafting Duane Brown, an offensive tackle out of Virginia Tech. They will need him to make an immediate impact to protect Schaub.

The Texans just need to find more consistency with their young players, if they want to take the jump in this very tough division. It is hard to make strides when the other three teams in the division made the playoffs last year.

Prediction: I like what the Texans are doing, but I still think they are a year away. Their good players are still very young on defense, and while they have good skill-players on offense, they need to get better blocking out of the offensive line if those players are going to realize their full potential.

The Texans have some winnable games on their schedule. They play the Dolphins and Raiders. The Lions and Bears could produce victories. Baltimore and Cincinnati present winnable games. The problem is the beginning of their schedule. They play at Pittsburgh, Jacksonville, and Tennessee in three of their first four games, with their sole home game coming against Baltimore in Week Two. 

Then they play Indianapolis in Week Five. They could easily be 1-4 to start the season. Then in Week 11, they begin a four-game stretch at Indianapolis, at Cleveland, Jacksonville, and at Green Bay on Dec. 7. 

In the end, I look for Houston to have a similar year to last season. They will play people tough, and continue to improve, but they are still probably a year away from breaking through in the AFC South.

Houston Texans' Record: 7-9—AFC South fourth Place; No Playoffs

 
That is how I see the AFC South playing out in 2008. Next week, I will turn my focus to the NFC South. I look forward to reading your comments about what you expect from your favorite team.

Derek Lofland is the NFL director for Fantasy Football Maniaxs.com