Scott Skiles' Arrival Fuels Tobias Harris' Fascinating 2015 Free-Agent Case
Ask a dozen NBA experts their thoughts on Orlando Magic free agent Tobias Harris, and you might hear a dozen different opinions.
Harris' statistics—underrated to some, empty production to others—promised to make his venture into restricted free agency a captivating one. But the arrival of his former coach, new Orlando frontman Scott Skiles, exponentially increased the intrigue.
Harris and Skiles have history. The former played the first season-and-a-half of his NBA career under the latter when both were with the Milwaukee Bucks.
Actually, that's not the best way to describe what Harris did under Skiles. He was more of an observer than anything in Milwaukee.
Skiles buried Harris at the end of the bench while splitting the small forward minutes between veterans. The rationale was pretty simple, at least in Skiles' mind. He went with the guys who gave his club the best chance to win.
"What we were trying to do in Milwaukee at that point was not necessarily our No. 1 priority was to develop the guys," Skiles said, via Orlando Magic Daily's Philip Rossman-Reich. "It was to win. That was the edict. ... And Mike Dunleavy was a better offensive player at that point and Luc Mbah a Moute was a better defensive player."
Skiles might be right.
Until recently, the Bucks made it clear they preferred chasing a low-level playoff berth over an outright rebuild. If Milwaukee wanted to field the best possible lineup, it isn't hard to imagine the sharpshooting Dunleavy and dogged defender Mbah a Moute had more to offer than a then-19-year-old Harris.
But the narrative changed during Harris' sophomore season.
After opening the campaign as a starter, Harris' occasional defensive mishaps quickly moved him down—and ultimately out of—the rotation. Dunleavy and Mbah a Moute were no longer Harris' only threats to playing time. Journeyman Marquis Daniels also stepped in front of the former first-round pick.
Harris' decline in Milwaukee was a rapid descent from there. After averaging 18.3 minutes per game in November 2012, he logged only 5.4 a night over the next two months. By February, he was traded to Orlando in a six-player swap that sent J.J. Redick to Milwaukee.
Harris was a different player from almost the moment he arrived in Orlando. When the Magic handed him the kind of minutes the Bucks had been slow to give, he responded with stat-sheet-stuffing production.
And the numbers haven't stopped piling up since.
Someone in Milwaukee clearly guessed wrong about Harris' ability.
"When I was in Milwaukee with him, I always knew he had the potential and talent to be a great player. And in Milwaukee, I think they were just holding him back," Harris' former teammate, Beno Udrih, said, via Orlando Pinstriped Post's Evan Dunlap. "They didn't give him a real chance to show what he can do."
That isn't necessarily an indictment of Skiles.
The Magic, who entered Harris' debut with a 15-40 record, were chasing something completely different than the Bucks. Orlando placed a premium on player development, while Milwaukee was thinking about a much smaller picture.
But Skiles captained the ship that never found room for Harris. Even if that wasn't Skiles' fault, the experience still left Harris feeling "definitely frustrated," via Charles F. Gardner of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel.
That's led some to wonder how Orlando's hiring of Skiles could affect its free-agency dealings with Harris. According to the coach, there's nothing to worry about in that regard.
"We have a great relationship. And I'm positive Tobias would say that as well," Skiles said, via Fox Sports Florida's Ken Hornack. "I was instrumental in drafting him. Tobias is a very, very good person and a very, very good player. That combination isn't always easy to find."
But the combination wasn't enough to find Harris minutes over Dunleavy, Mbah a Moute or even Daniels.
Even if that's water under the bridge now, Harris' suitors will make sure he remembers the feeling of drowning in it before.
The Magic still need to decide whether they want Harris back. His market looks as divisive as any in the 2015 free-agent crop.
Basketball Analytics' Stephen Shea dubbed Harris "the NBA's most underrated player" and said his "skill set is perfectly suited for the modern NBA game." But ESPN Insider Chad Ford gave a scathing review of Harris' free-agent stock:
"I think Harris is dangerous for the Magic as a free agent. They have no offense; Harris was their offense. But I don't think he's a great offensive player on a good team. I think he was a very good offensive player on a bad offensive team that had no other options. That's why I'm not sure he's the guy that they build around. They have to be careful of that.
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Statistics are equally split on how they view Harris.
On one hand, he was one of only six players to average at least 17 points, six rebounds and one three-pointer per game this season. The other five are all perennial All-Stars: LeBron James, Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook, Carmelo Anthony and Chris Bosh.
But Harris' career 16.3 player efficiency rating is only a tick above the league-average 15.0. His unsightly minus-2.53 real plus-minus ranked 324th out of 474 players in 2014-15. He's not a great perimeter defender, which is potentially problematic on a team lacking reliable rim protection.
And he's not the smoothest fit alongside the Magic's budding backcourt tandem of Elfrid Payton and Victor Oladipo.
Ideally, Orlando's penetrating guards would be surrounded by catch-and-shoot snipers. Harris is an average long-range shooter (personal-best 36.4 percent from distance this season) and can be a bit of a ball-stopper (9.0 percent of his offensive possessions were isolations).
Magic general manager Rob Hennigan has said he plans to keep Harris "no matter what," via Brian Schmitz of the Orlando Sentinel. With the right of first refusal, the Magic can match any offer sheet Harris signs.
But Basketball Insiders' Steve Kyler said Harris "is believed to be obtainable." If someone comes calling with a massive offer—maybe the New York Knicks would have interest in the New York native?—the strength of Orlando's commitment will at least be tested.
Harris also has to figure out how to navigate through free agency.
Part of that process entails weighing what matters most: money, market size, championship contention, etc. But it also involves surveying the league's changing landscape.
With the salary cap set to explode in 2016, per DraftExpress' Jonathan Givony, he might consider playing next season for his qualifying offer and re-entering the market as an unrestricted free agent the following summer.
"There's always going to be speculation on this or that," Harris said, via Hornack. "But I'm going to work to show everybody what I'm worth."
Having Skiles around isn't going to diminish Harris' chances of getting to work. So much has changed since this pair last crossed paths. Harris is a much more proven commodity than before. Skiles' employers are valuing player development above all else.
If the two have the chance to work together again, there are reasons to believe they could make the relationship a productive one.
Skiles' sharp defensive mind might help bring along the weakest part of Harris' game, while the 22-year-old player's scoring skills could help the defensive-minded coach squeeze out enough offense to be successful.
But their shared background adds an undeniably compelling layer to what was already a captivating narrative. Over the coming weeks, we'll find out exactly what Skiles, Orlando and the rest of the NBA really think about the polarizing Harris.
Unless otherwise noted, statistics used courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com and NBA.com.
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