Belmont Stakes Contenders 2015: Predictions for Top Favorites in 147th Race

To borrow a term from the sport we're all going to be keeping a watchful eye on over the next six days, we're entering the homestretch. The Belmont Stakes is finally within sight on June 6, and this year, American Pharoah will look to become the first Triple Crown winner since Affirmed all the way back in 1978.

The task is simple: run a grueling 1 1/2-mile race over a surface that literally plays slower than dirt while nine other incredibly gifted thoroughbreds take shots at you for a shade under two-and-a-half minutes.

Pharoah is going to have his work cut out for him, but he looks the part of a Triple Crown winner. How easily he's able to make that a reality depends on a number of factors, including both himself and the horses around him.

So, with just a few days left until they take to the Belmont dirt track, let's get a look at the top contenders as well as some predictions for how they'll perform.

Projected Field

Horse	Trainer	Odds
American Pharoah	Bob Baffert	5-6
Frosted	Kiaran McLaughlin	11-2
Materiality	Todd Pletcher	13-2
Carpe Diem	Todd Pletcher	12-1
Mubtaahij	Michael De Kock	16-1
Madefromlucky	Todd Pletcher	16-1
Tale of Verve	Dallas Stewart	22-1
Keen Ice	Dale Romans	28-1
Frammento	Nick Zito	40-1
The Truth or Else	Ken McPeek	50-1

American Pharoah

This year feels a lot different than last year. Sure, California Chrome was great, and it was exciting to see him go for the third and final leg of the Triple Crown. But it never quite felt like he was going to get the job done.

Garry Jones/Associated Press

This year, however, American Pharoah, the surefire three-year-old of the year, looks like as safe a bet as any to complete the feat. The Pioneerof the Nile colt defeated one of the best and deepest Derby fields in recent memory and then followed that up with a thorough thrashing of several repeat opponents from the Derby in the Preakness.

Obviously, the Belmont is the most difficult of the three Triple Crown races—there's a reason they call it the Test of the Champion—but Pharaoh appears to be up to the task. 

In fact, Bob Baffert's assistant, Jimmy Barnse told Bloodhorse.com that Pharoah is in tip-top shape heading into Saturday's race: "You see everything that you expect to see. Nothing alarming; everything is super positive. This is absolutely normal going into any race the way that we're doing. We have really nothing to deal with other than keeping him happy. Everything is going smooth."

The only thing not to like about American Pharoah is the fact that the superstar colt is still training at Churchill Downs.

Belmont is a different type of track to the one AP ran on both at Churchill and Pimlico. The backstretches are longer, and the turns are wider.

It would be of great benefit for Pharoah to work over the track and become acclimated to the dirt. He also needs to learn where the finish line comes in the stretch run.

That said, his not having worked at Belmont shouldn't deter you from betting on and rooting for American Pharoah. He still looks like the best.

Prediction: First

Frosted

Frosted is arguably the biggest threat to AP's Triple Crown run. The three-year-old son of Tapit already has two wins over the New York dirt—at Aqueduct—and a second-place finish at Belmont.

Having run at Belmont is a huge plus for Frosted. As mentioned in the section on Pharoah, Belmont is a vastly different track than most of the ones these horses are used to running on. Having been successful at Belmont gives him a huge leg up.

In addition to the home-field advantage, Frosted is just a great horse.

He logged his last win in the Grade 1 Wood Memorial at Aqueduct. In that race, the young colt confirmed exactly what his bloodlines suggest: He loves distance.

Frosted comes from a long line of "classic" distance runners including Tapit, Pulpit, A.P. Indy and Seattle Slew. In the Wood, he showed that penchant for distance as he worked three wide through the first turn and four wide through the second turn.

All of that extra running means that instead of running that 1 1/8 distance, Frosted likely ran something more like 1 1/2 miles. In addition, he is logging a strong workload in anticipation of the Belmont.

Mike Welsch of the Daily Racing Form was on the track at Belmont last week and watched Frosted work through six furlongs in 1:14.80. According to Welsch, "This was the best I've seen of Frosted either prior to or since the Derby."

That's high praise. Unfortunately, I'm looking for Frosted to make his run at AP a bit too soon and fall to a third-place finish behind AP and Mubtaahij, who I discussed here.

Prediction: Third

Materiality

Materiality is one of three top-notch Todd Pletcher-trained horses that are looking to knock Pharoah off his perch this weekend. The Afleet Alex colt had a solid, albeit underwhelming, performance in the Derby earlier this month, but it wasn't entirely his fault.

The Florida Derby winner broke last from the gate and got bottled up along the rail. From there, the young colt was forced to rally from 13 1/2 lengths back at the one-mile mark.

Materiality then angled four wide into the stretch run and rallied back to shorten the deficit between him and Pharoah to 7 3/4 lengths. Though it wasn't his best effort, it's tough to fault Materiality for his finishing position after the way he broke from the gate.

With a clean trip, he could easily get to or near the front of the pack. If he gets the lead, he'll look to set a nice even pace and save ground along the rail for the stretch run. 

Getting the lead isn't a necessity though, as Materiality has the tactical speed to keep Pharoah within reach and show that same burst he had in the Derby.

That said, Materiality is a lightly raced three-year-old, and that could backfire on him this weekend.

Prediction: Fifth

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