Belmont Stakes 2015: Predictions for Dark Horses in 147th Race

The Belmont Stakes is just over a week away, and with American Pharoah looking to lay claim to one of the greatest feats in all of sports—winning the Triple Crown—the field around him is finally starting to take shape.

Conquest Curlinate, a Mark Casse-trained colt, was withdrawn from consideration for the final field Thursday, May 28, leaving us with a nine-horse field, including six Derby runners, two Preakness runners and the winner of this year's Grade 2 Peter Pan.  

All things considered, this is a solid field of competitors that features a number of horses capable of unseating American Pharoah as the ruler of this year's three-year-old crop. Two horses in particular are rather attractive options, despite their "dark horse" status.

Those two horses are the ones we'll focus on here, and as we move through the duo, I'll give you a look at what they bring to the table, as well as a prediction for where they'll finish in this year's race.

First, though, take a look at the most recent field projections from BelmontStakes.com and the current odds for those horses, per Odds Shark.

Projected Field

Horse	Trainer	Jockey	Odds
American Pharoh	Bob Baffert	Victor Espinoza	5-6
Frosted	Kiaran McLaughlin	Joel Rosario	5-1
Materiality	Todd Pletcher	Javier Castellano	15-2
Carpe Diem	Todd Pletcher	John Velazquez	12-1
Mubtaahij	Michael De Kock	Irad Ortiz Jr.	16-1
Madefromlucky	Todd Pletcher	--	22-1
Tale of Verve	Dallas Stewart	Gary Stevens	22-1
Keen Ice	Dale Romans	Kent Desormeaux	28-1
Frammento	Nick Zito	Mike Smith	40-1

Madefromlucky

Madefromlucky has finished behind American Pharoah twice on the Triple Crown trail. In both the Grade 2 Rebel Stakes and the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby, the Lookin at Lucky colt was a distant second and fourth, respectively, to the reigning king of the three-year-old division.

After those two disappointing showings, Todd Pletcher and owner Mac Nichol turned their attention toward the Grade 2 Peter Pan. There, the young colt showed some impressive closing power coming back from a three-length deficit at the halfway point.

Madefromlucky showed exactly what you're looking for in a potential in-the-money finisher for the Belmont Stakes. The young colt broke cleanly and was able to keep himself within reach of the leaders.

Horses who hang around the back of the pack and plod away hoping for fast enough fractions to close into are generally disappointed by the time they cross the finish line. Fortunately for Madefromlucky, this shouldn't be a problem moving forward.

Two interesting points here coming out of this race: First, Madefromlucky bested a recent Belmont dropout, Conquest Curlinate, in this short, five-horse field. Second, last year's Belmont winner, Tonalist, took a similar path to the Belmont through the Peter Pan.

Like Tonalist, Madefromlucky appears to be peaking at just the right time as they head into the Belmont, and you also have to consider his strong showing both in the Peter Pan and the Northeast as a whole—two in-the-money finishes at Monmouth and the win at Belmont.

If you put any stock into speed numbers, Madefromlucky might be as close to a must-play as any horse in the field. Last year Tonalist earned a 105 speed figure from Equibase and then went on to win the Belmont. This year, Madefromlucky earned a 106 speed figure and is headed to the Belmont in just over a week.

Madefromlucky probably isn't going to win the race, but I'd look for him to finish somewhere underneath in an exotic play.

Prediction: Fourth 

Mubtaahij

Mubtaahij has all the makings of a Belmont winner.

As an international horse, and a trainee of Michael de Kock, the young colt should have an affinity for distance. In addition to that, Mubtaahij finally got his first taste of American dirt in the Derby earlier this month.

Now that he's had time to get acclimated to the country and train in preparation for the Belmont, the Dubawi colt has a chance to impact this race in a big way.

Prior to making the move over to the States, Mubtaahij was turning heads at Meydan Racecourse in Dubai. In the UAE Derby, Mubtaahij looked practically unbeatable.

Mubtaahij, like Madefromlucky, showed the ability to break cleanly from the gate and keep in touch with the leading group. Mubtaahij allowed the leaders to tire themselves out before making his turn along the rail. The international shipper followed that up with a three-wide stretch run that culminated in an open-lengths victory while gearing down across the finish line.

Sure, the Kentucky Derby wasn't a great showing—he ran a very distant eighth—but international horses don't have a history of performing well in the Derby, and the track record for international horses coming over and running well in their first races in the U.S. isn't an extensive one.

In addition to the extra time in his new country, De Kock's training regiment should have a positive impact on his colt moving forward.

Mubtaahij has worked four times in 11 days, according to a report by Jonathan Lintner of the Courier-Journal. It's an extensive regimen for sure, but according to De Kock's United States-based assistant, Trevor Brown—via Lintner—the extra training has served him well:

"

He went well, he basically did exactly what we wanted him to. The important thing was just getting the jockey on him to give him a chance to get accustomed to the horse and get to know him. Irad was pretty happy with the horse. He said he's ready.

"

Mubtaahij is a big, sturdily built colt, and he should handle the training well. Getting their new rider, Irad Ortiz Jr., in for some training mounts doesn't hurt either.

With solid workouts, familiarity between runner and rider, a penchant for distance and time to get further acclimated with running in the United States, Mubtaahij looks the part of a Belmont contender despite his status as a relative unknown.

Prediction: Second

Follow me on Twitter! Follow @TylerDuma