Atlanta Hawks Face Huge Offseason Decisions to Join NBA's Truly Elite Teams
The NBA's best team in January couldn't make it to June.
Now, with several major free-agency decisions looming, the Atlanta Hawks have to figure out whether this group is gone until November or banished to the history books.
Atlanta found something during its franchise-record-setting season. A strict adherence to coach Mike Budenholzer's system and an unwavering commitment to the collective pushed the Hawks further than they had been during any of their previous 45-plus years in the Peach State.
They netted the first 17-0 month in NBA history. They sent four players to the All-Star Game. Their entire starting five shared the Eastern Conference Player of the Month award in January. Budenholzer captured Coach of the Year honors for overseeing the most successful season in franchise history: 60 wins and a .732 winning percentage.
But none of the above could save the Hawks' dream from suffering a nightmarish ending. They were unceremoniously swept in the Eastern Conference Finals by a Cleveland Cavaliers team that played without Kevin Love and only had Kyrie Irving for half the series. The Hawks were outscored by 53 points over the four games.
"Obviously, we weren't good enough," Budenholzer said after Tuesday's season-ending 118-88 loss, via Tom Withers of the Associated Press. "We didn't get it done. ... They were just better than us in the series."
Atlanta's swift exit raises one potentially franchise-defining question about what this group really found this season. Did the Hawks actually join the league's elite ranks, or did a good team merely masquerade as a great one for a couple of months?
The numbers seem to point toward the latter.
| Oct.-Nov. | 9-6 | 107.0 | T-Fifth | 104.9 | 21st | Plus-2.1 | 12th |
| Dec.-Jan. | 31-2 | 107.5 | Sixth | 97.1 | First | Plus-10.5 | Second |
| Feb.-April 15 | 20-14 | 104.7 | 11th | 102.3 | 14th | Plus-2.4 | 11th |
| Playoffs | 8-8 | 101.0 | Ninth | 101.0 | T-Fifth | 0.0 | Seventh |
The deeper Atlanta pushed into the second season, the more noticeable its lack of a go-to superstar became.
"What other sports would call 'bad luck,' the NBA calls a fatal flaw. You can win a lot of games with a lot of good players, a strong coach and a solid system, but it's very difficult to win a title without superstars," wrote SB Nation's Paul Flannery.
That being said, the Hawks' postseason exodus wasn't necessarily an indictment of their team-first, star-less system. As ESPN.com's Kevin Arnovitz explained, the Hawks hurt themselves with uncharacteristic mistakes:
"Atlanta didn't lose this series because it was lacking a superstar. It lost it because it was less devoted to its game plan than Cleveland was and because it hit 31 percent of its uncontested 3-pointers and 20 percent of its catch-and-shoot triples -- half its regular-season rate. Defensively, its big men were slow to get up early on ball screens, something it normally excels at. And an interior-oriented defense that must be quick to close to the perimeter was too slow to react.
"
Maybe a superstar would have helped correct those problems. Or perhaps they would have been avoided had injury issues not popped up in Paul Millsap's shoulder, Kyle Korver's ankle, DeMarre Carroll's knee (and toe) and Thabo Sefolosha's leg.
But the Hawks have to figure out what was at the root of their demise. Did they simply catch a few bad breaks, or is this roster missing something needed to push it over the top?
If it's the latter, Atlanta may not have an easy time finding what it's lacking. This group looks short on avenues to internal growth.
Jeff Teague is the Hawks' youngest starter, and he just completed his sixth season in the league. Dennis Schroder is an intriguing prospect, but the 21-year-old needs to find a reliable shot and improve his decision-making to tap into his potential.
Atlanta also has two prominent pieces slated for unrestricted free agency: Millsap and Carroll. Both have exponentially grown in the Hawks system—Millsap playing a bigger part as a passer and three-point shooter, and Carroll claiming the starting spot that had eluded him during his first four NBA seasons—but their price tags have likely risen accordingly.
The Hawks have some financial flexibility going forward. They should have roughly $23 million in cap space this offseason, according to Arnovitz, but it's hard to imagine that will be enough to afford both of their starting forwards.
After Tuesday's loss, Millsap admitted he "can't make a decision right now," via Chris Vivlamore of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. Millsap said the team's tight bond "will play a lot into the decision," but the market will surely be crowded with suitors for the versatile forward.
And Carroll, who made just $2.4 million this season, helped his bank account as much as anyone during the playoffs. He's a bulldog defender and plays with the intensity of a guy fighting for a roster spot. During the first two rounds, he also put up 17.1 points per game on 52.4 percent shooting (43.9 percent from deep).
Carroll doesn't want to leave. "I'm a Hawk until the Hawks don't want me anymore—that's the way I look at it," he said, via Vivlamore. But the 28-year-old also said "money's definitely going to be a part" of his decision.
Over the course of Carroll's six-year career, he's only made $5.5 million, according to Basketball-Reference.com. He could easily double that amount next season alone thanks to both his two-way play and the league's soon-to-be-exploding salary cap.
Ideally, the Hawks would figure out how to keep both. It's hard to argue for disbanding a team that just set the organization's high-water mark for wins.
"This team has done a lot, and we have a lot of confidence in this team," Budenholzer said, via NBA.com's John Schuhmann. "We'll look to improve, but bringing back this team would excite us, excite me. It's a hell of a group."
That it is—and a really fun one to watch when it's clicking. But simply maintaining status quo will be tricky once free agency hits. And it still isn't easy to see how this club can significantly better itself by standing pat, as TNT's Inside the NBA crew discussed in the video below:
The things that worked this season aren't guaranteed to do the trick next year. The Eastern Conference could be greatly improved by then.
The Cavs should still be monsters, and the Chicago Bulls could be right there with them. Both the Washington Wizards and Milwaukee Bucks will be a year older and wiser. The Indiana Pacers could look dramatically different with a healthy Paul George. If the Miami Heat bring back all of their pieces, they could have one of the league's most talented starting fives.
The Hawks need to grow, but they might have to shed salary just to keep Millsap and Carroll around. Mike Scott and Shelvin Mack are potential trade candidates to help clear the books, but sacrificing depth is a risky ploy for a team whose bench already looked undermanned in the playoffs.
Atlanta's starting lineup outscored opponents by 14.3 points per 100 possessions in the postseason. The Hawks have to get more consistent production out of their reserves.
Young reinforcements could be coming soon. They're slated to make three selections in the upcoming draft (15th, 50th and 59th) and have a couple of intriguing players stashed overseas in 2014 second-rounders Walter Tavares and Lamar Patterson.
But if the Hawks plan on attempting another lengthy playoff run next season, their rotation won't leave much room for unproven prospects.
The Hawks have a ton of questions to answer. And that's true even before getting to Korver's ankle surgery, possible shoulder surgery for Millsap, as noted by Bleacher Report's Howard Beck, Pero Antic's own free-agency venture and Atlanta's need to add size and perimeter depth over the summer.
But the biggest question on the docket is the one that could shape both the short-term and long-term direction of this franchise: Do the Hawks currently have a championship-caliber core?
Maybe it's blind optimism, but they think they do.
"We believe in our team. We believe in the guys that we have," Teague said, via Beck. "We feel like we can do something special. ... We're going to stick to this."
If the Hawks think their January juggernaut can function at the same level in June, they will need to put their money where their mouth is.
That's a small price to pay for championship contenders. But the Hawks need to be certain they belong in that elite club before placing that bet.
Unless otherwise noted, statistics used courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com and NBA.com. Salary information obtained via Basketball Insiders.
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