Predicting Which San Antonio Spurs Free Agents Will Be Back for 2015-16 Season
The San Antonio Spurs' front office must soon decide the futures of nine free agents; six are unrestricted, while three are of the restricted variety.
Kawhi Leonard (RFA), Tim Duncan (UFA), Manu Ginobili (UFA) and Danny Green (UFA) highlight the bunch that's been together for four seasons, but the Spurs might not be able to re-sign them all.
According to HoopsHype, Tony Parker, Tiago Splitter, Boris Diaw, Patty Mills and Kyle Anderson are the only five players under contract for 2015-16, amassing a grand total of $33.8 million. That leaves San Antonio with $33.1 million to spend before reaching the salary cap, per Jonathan Givony of Draft Express.
The team has some flexibility due to collective bargaining agreement rules that allow it to exceed the salary cap to re-sign a player—Leonard, most likely—but one can only bend so far before the money tree snaps.
A solid percentage of the roster will return, but some Spurs will be searching for a new home next season.
Likely Gone
Cory Joseph's rise from D-League All-Star to nightly NBA contributor was fascinating to watch. Unfortunately for San Antonio, a breakout season likely made the point guard too expensive to keep.
Joseph recorded career bests in nearly every major statistical category. He shot 50.4 percent from the field and 36.4 from long distance. He also tallied 6.8 points, 2.4 rebounds, 2.4 assists and 1.1 steals per outing while posting a 115 offensive rating and a 104 defensive mark, per Basketball-Reference.com.
And considering Joseph is just 23 years old, he could command a yearly salary around $4 million. That would almost certainly be too much for the Spurs to spend on a third-string point guard—unless Ginobili retires, then the conversation tilts in favor of re-signing Joseph.
To be frank, the only way Jeff Ayres dons the silver and black is by accepting a minimum contract, and San Antonio could waive Reggie Williams and his non-guaranteed deal. Plus, opening the 14th and 15th roster slots to accommodate draft picks may be necessary.
Depends on a Second Max-Contract Player
One of the biggest potential storylines of the offseason is the Spurs' rumored interest in Marc Gasol and LaMarcus Aldridge, as noted by ESPN's Marc Stein. If San Antonio can manage to grab either All-Star, the roster would remain in tremendous shape whenever Duncan eventually retires.
But a high-profile signing would probably mean Green, a three-point specialist and premier wing defender who has absolutely earned a hefty payday, won't be back.
Following the Game 7 loss to the Los Angeles Clippers, the shooting guard mentioned his desire to stay in his current location. According to Mike Monroe of the San Antonio Express-News, Green said: "Hopefully, I'll be back. I love San Antonio. The fans have always supported us, from Day 1. It sucks that we had such a special group, and things may be changing and not be the same again."
Ken Berger of CBS Sports notes Green will command $10-12 million on the open market. If the Spurs strike out on Gasol and Aldridge, they could pony up that cash. If they find gold elsewhere, however, the only reasonable way to keep Green is to trade Splitter.
Marco Belinelli represents an interesting situation. His tremendous three-point shooting—40.5 percent throughout two seasons in San Antonio—is a valuable asset, but the Italian's shoddy defense makes him replaceable.
Whereas three-and-D contributors like Green are rare commodities, three-and-no-D players like Belinelli can be replaced relatively easily, particularly in the 2015 NBA draft. Belinelli is a decent second-unit producer, but he's not worth $3 million per year if the Spurs need cap space and can simply add a similar prospect on June 25.
Matt Bonner occupied a notable role during the regular season, averaging 13 minutes per game off the bench. However, he shot 36.5 percent from three-point range, his lowest mark since 2007-08.
After spending nine years with San Antonio, the 35-year-old has three options: return to the team on the 10-year veteran's minimum, ride the pine elsewhere and collect a slightly larger paycheck, or retire from the NBA.
Per Monroe, Bonner hopes to rejoin the Spurs. But if the front office is really strapped for cash, it can save $1 million by signing a rookie instead of retaining Bonner. And as small as that number is, San Antonio might need it.
Probably Returning
There's no point in dancing around this one: Barring a completely unforeseen development, Leonard is coming back. According to Berger: "The free-agent plan for the Spurs is to quickly agree on a five-year max deal with Leonard. 'It will be a short conversation,' one person with knowledge of the dynamics said."
Franchise cornerstones Duncan and Ginobili are currently pondering whether or not to return for another season. Bleacher Report's Ric Bucher reported that San Antonio is working under the belief the duo will indeed play one more year:
The Spurs should attempt to keep Aron Baynes, because the power forward has proved he's a stout reserve piece. But they might approach that process in a roundabout, unconventional way.
San Antonio could decline Baynes' $2.6 million qualifying offer to temporarily open cap space for a big-name free-agent acquisition and then circle back and re-sign him.
But if the front office is unable to convince Gasol or Aldridge to join the squad, the Spurs have no reason to save cap room, so they could ink Baynes to a new deal with a deserved raise almost immediately.
Unless otherwise noted, stats are courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com and are accurate as of May 21.
Follow Bleacher Report NBA writer David Kenyon on Twitter: @Kenyon19_BR.
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