Minnesota Vikings Set to Return to the Playoffs in 2015

Since the 2000 season, the Minnesota Vikings have been to the playoffs just four times.

Their most recent trip came in 2012, and fans likely won't want to remember that experience. Adrian Peterson's MVP-winning season dragged Christian Ponder to the playoffs, before an injury to Ponder saw Joe Webb thrown into the starting lineup against the Green Bay Packers.

Predictably, the backup quarterback caused his team to surrender with a whimper to Aaron Rodgers' team.

Surrendering to Rodgers has been a constant as of late for the Vikings.

In seven of the past eight seasons, the Packers have taken a playoff spot while playing in the same division as the Vikings. With the Detroit Lions developing into a competent team and the Chicago Bears always boasting quality, the Vikings haven't had an easy route to the playoffs in recent years.

They won't expect an easy path in 2015 either, but there are reasons to think the Vikings should be contending for a Wild Card spot in the NFC North.

Not only are the Packers the clear favorites to win the NFC North once again, but they are arguably in the best position to win the Super Bowl as things currently stand. Rodgers remains in his prime, while Ted Thompson was able to keep his supporting cast together in the offseason. The defense continues to add talent through the draft.

Expectations are waning for the Detroit Lions. Losing both Ndamukong Suh and Nick Fairley in one offseason won't help the Lions improve immediately, even if they may be better off without those contracts over the long-term. Calvin Johnson's age began to impact his play last season, while Jim Caldwell failed to fix Matthew Stafford like he would have hoped to.

The one team in the NFC North that appears set to truly drop out of contention is the Chicago Bears. The Bears have a new head coach and general manager in John Fox and Ryan Pace, respectively. Pace and Fox reportedly attempted to move on from quarterback Jay Cutler during the draft, while the rebuild of one of the worst defenses in the league last year is still only in its early stages.

As the Lions and Bears can realistically be expected to slacken off to different degrees this year, the Vikings should theoretically expect to get better.

That expectation emanates from head coach Mike Zimmer and starting quarterback Teddy Bridgewater in particular. Zimmer and his staff proved last season they could get the most out of the young talent on their roster, while Bridgewater made an impressive start to his career during his rookie season.

Winning seven games as a rookie head coach with a rookie quarterback who initially wasn't supposed to start is very impressive on its own. More impressive was the manner in which the Vikings did it.

Zimmer didn't arrive and immediately attempt to make radical changes to the roster by gutting it of the talent that was already there. Instead, he looked at the underperforming younger players and found ways to get consistent performances from them.

Each of the Vikings' key defensive pieces last year were 26 or younger entering the season. Defensive tackle Sharrif Floyd (23), safety Harrison Smith (25), defensive end Everson Griffen (26), outside linebacker Anthony Barr (22) and cornerback Xavier Rhodes (24) were the foundation of the unit.

According to Football Outsiders' DVOA, which measures snap-by-snap efficiency, the Vikings defense improved significantly from 2013 to 2014.

Crucially, the Vikings defense will be expecting to take an even greater step forward in 2015. Not only will Zimmer and his staff get more time to develop and refine the talent already on the roster, but they also made significant additions to that talent by spending their top three draft picks on defensive prospects.

Of those three prospects, middle linebacker Eric Kendricks should have the biggest impact in 2015.

Credit: Draftbreakdown.com

Kendricks fell to the second round in the draft, but he should become an immediate starter for the Vikings. He is a well-rounded linebacker who offers rare range and discipline, both in coverage and against the run. That is the type of player the Vikings front seven was lacking on the interior last season.

With Barr alongside him, the Vikings will have two very athletic linebackers who can excel in space.

In today's NFL where offensive success is largely predicated on your ability to create and exploit space, those kinds of players are extremely valuable for the defense. Bobby Wagner and K.J. Wright have had a major impact on the Seattle Seahawks defense because of this in recent years.

Kendricks and Barr will be different from Wright and Wagner because Barr is more of a pass-rusher than any of the other three players.

During his rookie season, Barr rushed the passer 115 times and dropped into coverage 340 times. Barr is a better pass-rusher than cover linebacker, and he should become even more potent if he can develop properly. However, for the Vikings front seven as a whole it may be better if Barr stays in coverage more. That is because of the defensive line talent the team has accrued.

Griffen is the team's best edge-defender. He will be as close to a full-time starter as he can be in 2015. Across from Griffen, veteran Brian Robison will need to fend off both second-year player Scott Crichton and rookie Danielle Hunter for playing time.

Hunter will likely follow in the footsteps of Crichton and sit on the sideline for most of his rookie season. He was drafted for his athleticism, so he will be viewed as a raw football player who needs time to learn the position.

There doesn't appear to be any thought that Hunter's selection is an indication of Crichton's ability. General manager Rick Spielman spoke about Crichton and Hunter:

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General Manager Rick Spielman likes how Crichton has approached the offseason.

“The way Scott has worked and came in in shape, playing left end, and also being able to potentially move inside and do some inside nickel rush,” Spielman said. “All that will be determined as our coaches put these guys through different scenarios and find out what their strengths are.”

Spielman isn’t ruling out Hunter being able to play left end, so Crichton can’t assume that he won’t be challenged as the eventual successor to Robison. Asked if Hunter can play left end, Spielman said:

“Maybe. You just can’t predict what’s going to happen. All I know is, like I said, we are trying to gather the best football players we can, guys with a lot of potential and upside. As we go through the process, all of these guys, what their role and they carve out as rookies will be determined as we go forward.”

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Realistic expectations suggest the Vikings will be able to boast a quality front seven, or front six as it so often is these days, in 2015. That front seven won't be dominant enough to cover for a porous secondary, so it's important that the Vikings defense as a whole is balanced.

Rhodes is developing into a quality starting cornerback, while Harrison Smith can rightfully feel aggrieved when he isn't mentioned amongst the better starting safeties in the NFL. Smith has a solid starting partner at safety in Robert Blanton, but it's the other cornerback spot that really needs filling.

Trae Waynes was the team's first-round pick in the 2015 draft and could compete for the starting spot, but he appears to be more of a long-term developmental option.

Understanding the need to accommodate Waynes' development, Spielman reunited Zimmer with a former player of his. After Terence Newman left the Dallas Cowboys in 2011, his career appeared to be coming to an end. As Zimmer often did, he recognized Newman's remaining talent and got the most out of it.

Newman has been a quality starter for the Cincinnati Bengals over the past three years despite his age. Now, at 36 years of age, Newman will be hoping to once again reaffirm his status as a quality starter across from Rhodes.

Between Newman, Waynes, Josh Robinson and Captain Munnerlyn, the Vikings should be able to find at least one quality starter and one viable nickel back.

While there are many potential upgrades to peruse on the defensive side of the ball, the biggest move of the offseason undoubtedly came on the other side of the ball, or at least, the biggest non-move of the offseason.

Holding on to Peterson instead trading him away may not have been the smartest move for the long-term health of the franchise, but it will be a major benefit in the short-term. Peterson proved in the past he can be the focal point of an offense that drags a team to the playoffs.

At 30 years of age, he is not the same player he was during his prime, but the Vikings don't need him to be that guy anymore.

Instead, the Vikings only need Peterson to be an above-average running back who can bring balance to the unit by complementing Bridgewater. Bridgewater's rookie season wasn't so impressive because of his statistical output, but rather his poised displays while working with a severely limited supporting cast.

His offensive line was amongst the worst units in the NFL for pass protection.

Injuries and outright poor play from most of his players on the offensive line put Bridgewater under huge pressure to speed up his process in the pocket. He was forced to mitigate pressure in the pocket on almost every snap while making difficult coverage reads downfield.

He was regularly making the types of plays the best quarterbacks in the league are lauded for making, even if only on occasion.

Bridgewater's accuracy could have been better, but the negative passing numbers—both simple and advanced—were primarily a result of poor wide receiver play.

Greg Jennings was his most reliable target for the season as a whole, but he wasn't reliable. Jennings had one of the worst seasons of his career as his ball skills and athleticism declined, and there were too often plays that showed questionable effort. He was released after the season.

Cordarrelle Patterson was supposed to break out in his second season. He was going to be the explosive downfield threat and YAC machine to complement Jennings' consistency as a possession receiver. Instead, Patterson's timid approach to route running made him a redundant piece of the passing game. He was benched before the season ended.

Kyle Rudolph, Jarius Wright and Charles Johnson were Bridgewater's best targets, but Wright has a limited skill set and struggled to catch the ball, while Johnson and Rudolph were only available to the quarterback for sections of the season.

There are no guarantees Bridgewater's receiving options will be better in 2015, hence why it's so important for him to develop and for Peterson to bring back the explosiveness to the running game.

Without Peterson in 2014, the Vikings running game was efficient. It ranked fourth in rushing DVOA. Despite that efficiency, its output only resulted in 112.8 yards per game, the 14th-most of any team in the league. Considering Matt Asiata and Jerick McKinnon were the primary ball-carriers, that efficiency was impressive but unspectacular, in comparison to what was lacking.

For his career as a whole, Peterson averages 5.0 yards per carry and 19.8 carries per game. He has primarily managed those statistics while playing with subpar quarterbacks.

Year	Passing DVOA Rank	Quarterback
2007	23rd	Tarvaris Jackson
2008	24th	Gus Frerotte
2009	4th	Brett Favre
2010	30th	Brett Favre
2011	28th	Christian Ponder
2012	22nd	Christian Ponder
2013	23rd	Matt Cassel

The best passer Peterson has played with is Brett Favre, but Favre was at the very end of his career when he lined out for the Vikings. The Vikings got one season of real quality from him, and that aided in letting Peterson set a career high for touchdowns with 18.

Both Bridgewater and Peterson have shown they can elevate poor offensive line play, so the offense should be much more effective if both start 16 games in 2015 with improved receiver play.

Quarterback play is always massively important for teams that hope to make the playoffs. Bridgewater doesn't need to get much better than he was during his rookie season for the Vikings to potentially make the playoffs, but any development would multiply their chances.

Development for Bridgewater seems more likely than it does for other young quarterbacks because of his skill set.

He has already shown off consistency in the most difficult aspects of playing the position. He can work with a hastened process in the pocket, make adjustments to or make throws while under pressure, both inside and outside of the pocket, and diagnose blitzes in an instant while reading route combinations downfield.

Getting stronger and throwing more accurately are much easier traits to develop than improving mentally and developing an ability to perform against pressure.

Nothing is guaranteed in the NFL, and predictions are always very difficult, but it's hard to pick a team that is more likely to become a playoff participant than the Minnesota Vikings in 2015. In Mike Zimmer and Norv Turner, they have experienced leaders with offensive and defensive intelligence to guide them.

The talent on the field simply needs to live up to its billing.

Although there is no rush for the Vikings to make the playoffs because of their youth, a successful 2015 campaign could act as a catalyst for sustained success over the coming decade. They may not become as successful as the Green Bay Packers, but it no longer seems outlandish as Rodgers enters the second half of his career.