Chicago Bulls vs. Cleveland Cavaliers: Who Has the Edge in Best-of-3 Series?
Game-winners, injuries, teetering momentum and generally hard-to-watch basketball have the Chicago Bulls and Cleveland Cavaliers here, each scrambling for a measurable edge over the other, their best-of-seven series now a best of-three affair.
It's unreal that, with four games in the books, this is where the Cavaliers and Bulls lie. Four contests is usually enough to provide insight. There should be a clear leader by now, an unmistakable alpha dog, even with the series tied.
But following the Cavaliers' thrilling, albeit ugly, 86-84 victory over the Bulls in Game 4 on Sunday, the distance between what should be and what actually is couldn't be any greater.
There is no obvious favorite entering Game 5 and the best-of-three set it triggers. Identifying one is a matter digging deeper, turning over every rock and exploring every nook and cranny of a series so remarkably tight, it begs the question of whether there's a favorite at all.
Series Style
Little about the first four games has been pretty.
Some of the unflattering aesthetics are mitigated by the even ground on which the Bulls and Cavaliers seemingly stand. Three of their contests have been decided by seven points or fewer. The last two remained in doubt until the final buzzer.
If not for Derrick Rose's bank shot at the end of Game 3 or LeBron James' fallaway dagger in Game 4, the direction of this series could be much different. The Bulls could be down 3-1. The Cavaliers could be down 3-1.
And knowing that a couple of shots remain the primary difference-makers to this point somewhat masks the ugly basketball being played—especially in Game 4. As CBS Sports Zach Harper put it:
"For the most part, this game was atrocious. Both teams had unfathomably bad stretches of offense that should have cost them the game, and in the Bulls' case probably did. In the second quarter after taking a 37-29 lead, Chicago saw a stretch of 6:57 in which they didn't hit a shot (0-of-13) and didn't score a single point. The Cavs went on a 16-0 run to take the lead as the Bulls let them off the hook at United Center.
If you paid big money to attend this game, you probably didn't want anybody to catch you on television enjoying the experience.
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Neither team is shooting even 42 percent from the floor or playing especially well on the offensive end at all. While the other three ongoing series are being played with a semblance of pace, the Bulls and Cavaliers are trudging through mud, averaging just under 91.9 possessions per 48 minutes, a mark that would have ranked dead last with room to spare during the regular season.
Defense continues to be the more decisive element, pushing this matchup down a path the Bulls are more equipped to traverse. They aren't the stingy, trademark Tom Thibodeau unit of years past, but they hovered around top-10 territory entering the postseason and enjoy an array of defensive weapons Cleveland does not.
Jimmy Butler, specifically, is disruptive as ever. Cavaliers players are shooting 32.8 percent when he's on their case, compared to 47.0 percent against everyone else.
James' buzzer-beater in Game 4 notwithstanding, Butler has played a pivotal part in making life difficult for the world's greatest player. Though James is putting up numbers, it's taking him a lot of looks to get them. He's averaging more than 25 attempts per game and shooting 37.7 percent from the floor, an uncharacteristic rut that's even more evident with Butler in his face.
Consider this from Game 4, per ESPN Stats & and Information:
And this from Game 3:
Toss in Joakim Noah's mounting defensive energy and Taj Gibson holding the Cavaliers to 7-of-18 shooting within 10 feet of the basket, and the Bulls have an inside-out dynamic capable of navigating the ugly, rim-ruining affair this series has become.
As a team that ranked 19th in defensive efficiency during the regular season and is openly being forced to manipulate its rotation based on the personnel Chicago is fielding, Cleveland is nothing if not out of its comfort zone moving forward.
Advantage: Bulls
Health
Kevin Love's injury isn't defining this series.
Everyone else's problems are.
Pau Gasol suffered a hamstring injury serious enough to keep him out of Game 4. His replacement, Gibson, left that very game in the fourth quarter with a right knee injury. And though Gibson himself says he should be fine, per the Daily Herald's Mike McGraw, knee pain is tricky and could limit Chicago's big man in some way.
Iman Shumpert, meanwhile, is playing through a groin injury for the Cavaliers. Kyrie Irving is battling a number of issues himself, from soreness in his right hip, to pain in his right foot, to aches in his left leg.
Said James of Irving after Game 4, per ESPN.com's Dave McMenamin:
"The kid is a warrior. What he’s going through right now, no one can relate. He’s played 40 minutes on one foot the last two games. Just his presence on the floor, no matter if he’s playing on one foot or not, you have to account for him because of his ability to make shots. His ability to command things out on the floor. … It goes a long way.
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That may be true. But Irving's injuries are visibly affecting his game.
He's not getting into the paint as easily or creating open opportunities for Cleveland's orbiting shooters as frequently. He is shooting just 36.4 percent for the series, he hasn't attempted more than 13 shots since Game 1 and the Cavaliers' offense is statistically better with him off the floor.
James has naturally been forced to compensate. His shot totals are way up, and his usage rate exceeds 40 percent for the series.
For context, Russell Westbrook led all qualifying players with a 37.2 usage rate during the regular season.
Shouldering this type of workload is never ideal. It's even less ideal, bordering on detrimental, when James is now laboring through an injury himself. He turned his left ankle in transition during the third quarter of Game 4, and while he was able to return, the pain remains a factor, according to the Akron Beacon Journal's Jason Lloyd:
It's difficult to gauge just how much of an impact these various injuries will have in the coming games. More of Cleveland's players are banged up, yet the lingering misfortune doesn't appear as if it will result in any missed time for anyone other than Love and possibly Gasol.
Both teams are just plain hurting.
Advantage: Even
Star Power
Big names are not equating to big-time performances.
Sure, there have been big-time moments in this Cavaliers-Bulls set. Game-winners, Butler's defense, game-winners, Timofey Mozgov's Hakeem Olajuwon impression in the third quarter of Game 4, game-winners, Tyronn Lue saving David Blatt's job, J.R. Smith's triumphant return to three-point chucking and Mike Dunleavy going bonkers in Games 1 and 3 have all been huge aspects of this series.
Oh, and so have the game-winners.
But marquee names aren't swaying momentum one way or the other.
Rose is averaging 25.0 points and 6.5 assists, attacking at will and coming up big when it matters most. He also exploded in Game 4, hitting 11 of his 23 shots, including a game-tying layup that set the stage for James' crippling fadeaway. But he's shooting just 40 percent overall and getting to the foul line with less frequency than Butler.
Oscar Robertson would look longingly at James' per-game numbers. James is putting the Cavaliers on his back out of necessity, averaging 26 points, 11.3 rebounds and 9.0 assists. But he's committing nearly six turnovers with a true shooting percentage—cumulative measurement of two-pointers, three-pointers and free throws—south of 45.
To put that in perspective, his career playoff true shooting percentage stood at 57.8 entering this year's dance.
Butler is complementing his suffocating defense with a suboptimal performance on the offensive end. He's shooting better than 47 percent in the fourth quarter but under 40 percent in general, and his three-point touch eluded him until Game 4.
Irving's shooting struggles are compounding themselves in the fourth quarter. Never mind his 36.4 percent clip overall. The Cavaliers will take that over the 21.4 percent he's shooting in final installments.
This series, while collectively close, is still waiting for a star to grab complete, irreversible control for more than one game, or a couple quarters, or a fleeting moment. The team who enjoys that luxury first will end up winning—or at the very least gain leverage in a matchup light on competitive edges.
Right now, though, the Cavaliers and Bulls are both still waiting.
Advantage: Even
So...What Now?
There is no end to this back and forth in sight. On and on it goes.
Cleveland regained home-court advantage in Game 4. It has the closest thing to momentum available in this series—kind of like the Bulls did after Game 3, before they, you know, went on to lose Game 4.
Thibodeau is more experienced than Blatt and deliberately dictating the terms with which these two teams play. He's forcing the Cavaliers to run big, further handicapping a floor-spacing bill that is already without Love.
The Bulls are deeper on paper and Rose is healthy. The Cavaliers have James. The Bulls are the only team to crack 50 percent shooting in a single game for this series. The Cavaliers have yet to be blown out despite underperforming to the umpteenth degree offensively.
On and on and on.
Which means the Bulls have done their job.
Even with the Cavaliers missing Love, the Bulls are the perceived underdogs. That's not only a symptom of playing against James; it's the offshoot of the Bulls' season-long roller coaster that was perfectly encapsulated in their preceding series against the upstart Milwaukee Bucks, when it took three tries for them to advance after going up 3-0.
These unsightly battles only mean the Bulls are in more control. They're built to win ugly. For the last half-decade or so, that's how they've preferred to win.
If the Cavaliers keep catering to the Bulls' pace and play style, it's the Bulls who will stumble into the Eastern Conference Finals, perhaps worse for wear, but four victories away from the NBA Finals nonetheless. And so, in this tale of back and forth, it's the Bulls who have the ultimate advantage.
For now.
Stats courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com, Sports-Reference.com and NBA.com unless otherwise cited.
Dan Favale covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter: @danfavale.
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