Why Damian Lillard Holds All the Cards to the Portland Trail Blazers' Future
The future of the Portland Trail Blazers could soon become the present. With LaMarcus Aldridge and Wesley Matthews hitting free agency this summer, Damian Lillard is in position to inherit the torch as the new face of the franchise.
The 24-year-old Lillard has taken the NBA by storm since entering the league as the No. 6 overall pick in 2012. He's never missed a game as a pro, averaged at least 19 points per contest the past three seasons, won Rookie of the Year honors, earned All-NBA third-team honors in 2014 and made two All-Star appearances. He also catapulted the Blazers last season into the second round for the first time since the 1999-2000 season with a series-clinching buzzer-beater in Game 6 against the Houston Rockets.
According to RealGM's Shams Charania, Lillard is ready to cash in on all of his immediate contributions.
"Lillard, sources said, has no plans to consider signing an extension less than the designated max – nor would the two-time NBA All-Star and 2013 Rookie of the Year be financially inclined to do so given 2016’s rising free agency market, when upward of 20 teams could extend $20 million-plus offer sheets to Lillard.
In his exit interview Thursday, Lillard told reporters he’s confident in extension talks with the Blazers, which could reach a possible $90 million-plus. Discussions can’t start until July, and the Blazers have long shown faith in the sixth overall pick of the 2012 draft.
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Other than Lillard, the Blazers have just four other players under contract for next season. If Aldridge and Matthews bolt this summer, Lillard would open up the 2015-16 campaign as the unquestioned face of the franchise. For the Weber State product, there's no place he'd rather be than Rip City, per Mike Tokito of the Oregonian.
"For me, this is where I want to be," Lillard said. "So whatever we need to do to make that happen and figure that out, then that's what I'm going to do."
Lillard will make $4.2 million next season before becoming a restricted free agent the following year. He could also become eligible for an even bigger payday via "The Derrick Rose Rule", which entitles a player finishing his rookie contract to 30 percent of the salary cap if he is twice voted an All-Star starter, earns two All-NBA nods or wins the MVP award.
Given all the pieces that are in play, this is shaping up to be a pivotal offseason for the Blazers.
Is Lillard Worth the Max?
Lillard's case for earning a max contract is already pretty strong. In just three years, he went from a mid-major darling to an NBA star and has established himself as one of the best point guards in basketball. On top of that, his numbers on both sides of the ball are trending upward.
The chart below shows the improvement in Lillard's offensive numbers over the last three seasons. Additionally, he has raised his player efficiency rating (PER) from 16.4 as a rookie to 18.6 as a sophomore to 20.7 this year, per Basketball-Reference.com.
| Year | FG Percentage | 3PT Percentage | PPG | APG | RPG |
| 12-13 | 42.9 | 36.8 | 19.0 | 6.5 | 3.1 |
| 13-14 | 42.4 | 39.4 | 20.7 | 5.6 | 3.5 |
| 14-15 | 43.4 | 34.3 | 21.0 | 6.2 | 4.6 |
Lillard's defense, which has been criticized by the likes of Gary Payton in the past, also took a step up in 2014-15. According to this next chart, he posted career highs in defensive rating, defensive win shares, defensive box plus/minus and steal percentage this season. He still has some work to do to become a true two-way guard, but the increased effort is a promising sign that he's ready to take on a larger role and be "the guy" for Portland.
| Year | Def. Rating | Def. Win Shares | Defensive Box Plus/Minus | Steal Percentage |
| 12-13 | 112 | 0.7 | -2.4 | 1.2 |
| 13-14 | 110 | 1.8 | -1.7 | 1.1 |
| 14-15 | 105 | 3.3 | 0.0 | 1.7 |
You also can't overlook the importance of Lillard's durability, especially given the Blazers' tragic injury history. With Lillard in position to secure a hefty long-term deal, the franchise can take comfort in having a star player upon whom they can depend.
If his numbers continue to grow and his performance continues to rise, $90 million (or more, depending on the Rose Rule) will look like a discount. He's still scratching the surface of his potential and hasn't even reached the prime of his career.
The Last Man Standing
The Blazers could have an entirely different look next season. Aldridge, according to ESPN.com's Marc Stein, reportedly has the San Antonio Spurs "near or at the top" of his list of potential destinations. If he leaves, the team will have a tough time replacing his 23.4 points and 10.2 rebounds in the starting lineup as well as someone who has been the face of the franchise for the better part of the last decade.
Meanwhile, Matthews continues to recover from surgery he underwent to fix a torn Achilles he suffered in March. When healthy, he's an underrated two-way shooting guard and integral part of the Blazers' operation, as evidenced by the team's 11-16 record during his absence.
General manager Neil Oshey is well aware of Matthews' value, but he realizes there will be outside interest, as well, per Kerry Eggers of the Portland Tribune: "We know his value to us. We also know he's going to have market value around the league."
Beyond the core, the team also has to worry about retaining key role players such as starting center Robin Lopez. Even with only $23 million on the books for next season, it will be tough to keep everyone together.
"I don't think it's hit anybody yet that we could see a lot of changes," Lillard said, per Eggers. "Some people might not be back."
One person who will definitely be back next year is Lillard, and if Aldridge and Matthews leave, the team's focus shifts to building around its young point guard. That makes keeping Lillard happy and well-compensated a priority, as failing to do so would hurt the outlook of the team, as John Canzano of the Oregonian points out:
"Lillard's play here, like (Damon) Stoudamire once did, is to announce early and aggressively that he wants to stay in Portland long-term as long as the Blazers give him the security and respect of overpaying for his services. Buried in his negotiation, however, is the notion that if the organization declines to play ball with Lillard they're really just announcing they're not striving to stay competitive in the West.
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If Lillard is left as the last man standing, Portland will have no choice but to make him the man.
The Portland Trail Blazers find themselves at a bit of a crossroads this summer. What once looked like a potential championship contender could fall apart piece by piece if LaMarcus Aldridge and Wesley Matthews opt to sign elsewhere.
While the current state of Rip City is uncertain, the future lies in the hands of point guard Damian Lillard.
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