Predicting Which Portland Trail Blazers Free Agents Will Be Back Next Season
The Portland Trail Blazers will have a plethora of free agents this offseason, which begs the question: Just how different could this roster look next year?
A total of nine players may end up being courted by other teams, one way or another. Some will be outright eligible to leave, while others have contract options that could see them stay or go.
Most of them have voiced their desire to remain in Portland, but there's no telling how things will unfold.
With three players from the starting lineup unrestricted, the Blazers will be faced with some tough decisions in terms of committing long-term salary and keeping this core together despite its stuttering progress to this point.
Alonzo Gee, SF, Unrestricted
1 of 9
Veteran swingman Alonzo Gee arrived in Portland after a midseason trade with the Denver Nuggets. He played in 15 games (two starts) but had a limited role.
His 3.4 points and 1.6 rebounds in 10.1 minutes per game left a lot to be desired, especially considering his lack of a three-point shot. He finished his tenure with the Blazers converting just 27.3 percent from long range.
This team's offense requires mid-range or long-range shooting at almost every position in order to space the floor for the post-up and driving game of the superstars.
To his credit, Gee was a solid defender and an athletic spark in most games. But as a whole, he lacks the essential components that would extend his stay in Portland.
Prediction: Will Not Return
Joel Freeland, C, Restricted
2 of 9
The British Bulldog will be a restricted free agent, which means the Blazers can extend a $3.7 million qualifying offer to the center.
Joel Freeland worked well as the third-string big man, playing quality but limited minutes. He started eight games during late December with strong results.
He averaged 3.5 points and 4.0 rebounds on the season but saw those numbers spike to 5.0 points, 7.8 rebounds and 1.4 blocks as the starter. A shoulder injury shortly after this period derailed much of his progress, but Portland should consider retaining his services.
For starters, his teammates love having him around. Per a report from Paul Brown of the Daily Star, Damian Lillard praised Freeland:
"Joel is a lot more important than people think he is. He’s one of those guys that in practice he’s constantly challenging guys and he’s competing and one of our better defenders. Every time Joel gets in the game you know what you are going to get from him. Any time you have a guy like that – that you know what you’re going get every time – it’s comforting as a team-mate and I’m sure as a coach.
"
Freeland also offers a nice package of skills on both ends, ranging from a mid-range jumper to solid rebounding and low-post defense bolstered by his size and strength. He knows the system, understands his role and won't command a hefty salary either.
Prediction: Will Return
Dorell Wright, SF, Unrestricted
3 of 9
Dorell Wright has spent the last two seasons with the Blazers and could well be here longer.
The swingman checks a number of boxes in terms of what Portland expects from its personnel. He can play multiple positions, rebound well and shoot the three with efficiency. He’s also a veteran player, which this team needs many more of.
Wright averaged just 4.6 points and 2.3 rebounds in 12.4 minutes but was always prepared to step up when his number was called. He put up 10.6 points and 5.1 rebounds when playing at least 20 minutes, often filling in as a stretch 4.
Per a report from Lang Greene of Basketball Insiders, Wright is looking to remain in Portland:
"Portland is definitely where I want to be. It’s always good to be in a system and know it from A to Z. It’s kind of hard because when I left Miami and went to those different teams for one year or two years, it was just difficult learning new systems and getting to know different guys and new personnel. So I’m really comfortable here in Portland. If it happens, it happens.
"
Like Freeland, Wright won't take a huge chunk of payroll that will be crucial in re-signing integral players. He understands his role as a supporting player and as a locker-room presence, as well as fits the bill skill-wise.
Prediction: Will Return
Steve Blake, PG, Player Option
4 of 9
This season was Steve Blake's fifth with the Blazers in a 12-year career.
He played his fewest minutes per game in more than eight years, which wasn't a bad thing at age 35. He still managed to be a respectable backup, averaging 4.3 points on 35.2 percent from three and 3.6 assists with just 1.3 turnovers.
He certainly fits what Portland expects from a veteran guard, as well as a member of its community.
After the unfortunate passing of Blazers legend Jerome Kersey, Blake changed his jersey number from No. 25 to No. 5 to honor "Mercy." Per ESPN.com, he said: "I've known Jerome for a long time now and wanted to honor him and his vast contributions both on and off the court. I consider it an honor to wear the No. 25, but this just seemed like the right thing to do."
Blake holds a $2.1 million player option for next season, which is an affordable price for a reserve guard. A younger replacement could help, but it's still a contract that's reasonable even for a third-string point man.
And per a report from Jabari Young of CSNNW.com, Blake "plans to exercise that option" and continue playing:
"I want a championship really bad and I’m hoping we can get to that level. I only have a few years left to try and get it. My body still feels pretty good, I still feel young enough to play a couple more years. I know I’m in the back stretch, that’s why it’s so important for us to be so good.
"
With Blake's accurate distributing and mentoring, the Blazers just might be good enough.
Prediction: Will Return
Chris Kaman, C, Team Option
5 of 9
Much like Blake, Chris Kaman's contributions and veteran leadership were felt in Portland this season.
The 7'0" center acted as the primary reserve scorer for most of the year, averaging 8.6 points on 51.5 percent shooting with 6.5 rebounds. Kaman was able to consistently make his mark after subbing in, including this circus shot from early March.
Off the court, he played a big part in the development of third-year center Meyers Leonard. Kaman seemed to instill some confidence in the young big, which Leonard was thankful for, per a report from Erik Gundersen of the Columbian:
"Words can't describe it really. He's been a mentor, a big brother to me really. It's been so awesome to have him around. ... Hanging out off the court, me just kind of picking his brain, asking him things about life, things about basketball. He's extremely knowledgeable about both, and it's a comfortable and good feeling having him around.
"
Oftentimes, a player who serves such a role of guidance and mentoring is unable to contribute as much on the court due to age. But Kaman did both, which makes bringing him back all the more appealing.
He is owed $5 million for next season, but whether he receives it will be up to the Blazers, according to a tweet from CSNWW.com reporter Jabari Young: "Kaman said he wants to play next season, will wait to see if his team option is picked up in June."
Kaman is 33 years old and has a history of injuries, but his work on and off the court should leave the Blazers with an easy decision: bring back The Caveman.
Prediction: Will Return
Arron Afflalo, SG, Player Option
6 of 9
Arron Afflalo’s short stint with the Blazers is up in the air.
He was heralded as the missing piece to this team’s puzzle: a scoring and defensive specialist to back up the already strong starting unit. Afflalo was clear about his feelings in a red, black and silver uniform, per his article from the Players’ Tribune, titled “Portland, Here I Come”:
"I can’t say how many minutes I’ll play or shots I’ll take per game, but I’m ready. I know I’m not going there as a starter, although I am a proven starter in the NBA, but if it’s the depth that I can bring to take this team to the next level then dub me an “overqualified backup” — as some have already started doing. I’m ready for any role if it means bringing the Larry O’Brien trophy to your city.
"
After just six games in such a role, he was thrust into the prime spot, as starting off-guard Wesley Matthews tore his Achilles tendon and missed the rest of the season.
But even over the course of 25 games, Afflalo never seemed to find his groove. He averaged 10.6 points on just 41.4 percent shooting (the least accurate since his rookie season) in a system that truly complemented his strengths. In addition, he never had the defensive impact that many expected.
Per NBA.com, the Blazers yielded a defensive rating of just 97.1 with Matthews at shooting guard alongside the other starters. With Afflalo in his place, that jumped to an appalling 111.0.
He has a player option of $7.9 million for next season but may not be looking to exercise it. ESPN.com's Marc Stein said Afflalo "intends to go ahead with plans to opt out this summer even though a right shoulder injury obviously prevented him from making the post-trade deadline smash in Portland that he'd hoped."
After mixed results and the needed cap space, the Blazers should hope that is the case.
Prediction: Will Not Return
Robin Lopez, C, Unrestricted
7 of 9
This one may need no explanation.
Robin Lopez has fit like a glove since arriving in Portland, appealing to the culture of the city and of the basketball team itself. His defensive presence and "do all the dirty work" attitude have him celebrated by teammates, per Joe Freeman of the Oregonian:
"Bring up Lopez to any teammate and they perk up, eager to offer praise. At one point, when asked about "RoLo," all will utter the same word: Unselfish. Lopez, they say, doesn't care about how many points he scores or how many headlines he draws. He's just fine blending in and filling his role: playing defense, chasing offensive rebounds, setting monster screens and blocking shots.
"
He averaged 9.6 points, 6.7 rebounds and 1.4 blocks for the year, though his value goes beyond that. Lopez is an integral part of the Blazers, acting as the perfect complementary player to the finesse-oriented game of LaMarcus Aldridge down low.
Though there's some uncertainty surrounding the latter player's status in free agency, the team should still look to re-up Lopez. He has been honest about his desire to re-sign as well, per Sean Meagher of the Oregonian: "Nothing's 100 percent certain. Obviously I've loved my time here in Portland. I would love to come back. I'd be very open to coming back, but it's hard to say 100 percent. You just never know what's going to happen."
He's right to be a little uncertain, as anything could happen during the free-agency period. But after two seasons of Lopez being an efficient, hardworking player that the fans love, that uncertainty should be put to rest quickly.
Prediction: Will Return
Wesley Matthews, SG, Unrestricted
8 of 9
This one may also need no explanation.
Wesley Matthews is, quite simply, the heart and soul of the Trail Blazers.
His fiery, competitive nature on both ends motivates all around him. Whether he's swishing a three-point shot—complete with his imaginary bow-and-arrow routine—diving after a loose ball or locking up his man, he's a crucial part of this group.
As seen in the discussion regarding Afflalo, Matthews is a major defensive presence on Portland's perimeter. The team simply fell apart following his season-ending injury, going just 10-12 without his 15.9 points, 3.7 rebounds and 2.9 threes per game.
Per his exit interview, Matthews said to Sean Meagher of the Oregonian that returning to the Blazers would be a "perfect situation." But, like Lopez, he was aware of that "so much stuff can happen between now and when free agency starts."
Despite the truth of the latter statement, it's unlikely the 2-guard departs Portland. He has the starting spot locked down, has a rich history with the team, has the support of fans and teammates and is the perfect player next to Damian Lillard in the backcourt.
There are lingering questions regarding just how well he'll recover from his injury, but Matthews' game has never been about athleticism. He's a deadly spot-up shooter, as well as being able to take it into the post, but neither is heavily predicated on his body.
That isn't to say he'll be the same player, but the Blazers shouldn't be too worried when offering him a contract.
Prediction: Will Return
LaMarcus Aldridge, PF, Unrestricted
9 of 9
Though he's made reassurances in the past, rumors remain that LaMarcus Aldridge may leave in free agency.
Per a tweet from ESPN.com's Marc Stein, a few teams are looking to court the big man, with the San Antonio Spurs being the most attractive suitor of that group. They're an established contender with a solid core, a young superstar in Kawhi Leonard and a deadly system when played correctly.
What many forget, however, is that the Blazers can offer the same incentives. And perhaps beyond that.
As it stands, this team is built around Aldridge. It is a Western Conference powerhouse when healthy and has a talented and clutch All-Star point guard in Lillard and a suffocating defensive scheme. Players leave struggling teams for greener pastures, but the one that resides in Portland is as green as it gets.
Aldridge's statement that he wishes to "be the best Blazer—ever," per a report by Joe Freeman of the Oregonian, has been rehashed and will be until he chooses a team. But it doesn't take away from the fact that his legacy is important to him and will play a factor in his decision.
He spoke more of his intentions to Freeman, in response to declining a contract extension:
"I'm happy to stay, happy to be here, happy with the direction the team has gone the last year or two. This has no impact on my interest in staying in Portland. I just want to get a five-year deal. I feel like that's the best decision on my part.
I don't want it to be perceived that I'm not happy or I'm not staying on because I'm not signing a three-year deal. It's just financially smarter to wait … and I'm looking forward to signing the five-year deal when the chance comes.
"
The Blazers are the only team that can offer Aldridge a max, five-year contract, as well as a no-trade clause if he desires one.
If he's looking to win, be a cornerstone, establish a place in history and get paid for it, he can do it all in Portland.
Prediction: Will Return
All salary information courtesy of Basketball Reference, unless otherwise noted.
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