3 Matchups to Watch in Grizzlies vs. Warriors 2nd-Round Series
Neither the Golden State Warriors nor the Memphis Grizzlies had too much trouble with their first-round opponents.
Despite a historic set of performances from Anthony Davis, the Western Conference's No. 1 seed swept the New Orleans Pelicans right out of the field. Sure, they required an overtime period after a memorable comeback, but in the playoffs, a win is a win. And shortly after that series was decided, the Grizz knocked off the injury-riddled Portland Trail Blazers, advancing after a decisive Game 5.
Now, things get tougher.
According to Basketball-Reference.com's SRS rankings, which looks at margin of victory and adjusts for strength of schedule, the Warriors (No. 1) and the Grizzlies (No. 8) are two of the league's top-eight squads, making this a matchup that's sure to bring some fireworks. The Dubs may have won two of three regular-season matchups, but the slates are now wiped clean.
Heading into Sunday's Game 1, these two teams are dead even. Both have zero wins and zero losses in this series, after all.
But that's soon going to change, and the squad that pulls ahead will likely be determined by the winner of these three individual battles.
Stephen Curry vs. (?)
Throughout the entire 2014-15 campaign, Stephen Curry has served as the head of the snake for the Warriors. He's a legitimate MVP candidate—and should be the favorite after guiding his squad to 67 wins during the regular season—who makes the entire offense go.
Well, the entire team, for that matter, as his defensive improvements have also been huge for Golden State.
According to my factor adjusted team similarities (FATS) projections (based on historical comparisons and explained in full here), the only way to make the Warriors into a sub-40-win team is by removing Curry from the equation. Seriously, as this is how the team fared with each typical starter on and off the floor:
Not only do the Warriors have the highest ceiling when Curry is playing, but they also have the lowest floor when he isn't. No one is more important to the success of this organization, and the Grizzlies have to figure out some way to slow him down.
But how?
Mike Conley is the typical starter, but after suffering an elbow to the face from C.J. McCollum in Memphis' first-round series, his status is a complete unknown.
"We're hopeful that it'll be sooner than later," the southpaw explained about the date of his return during TNT's broadcast of Game 5, as relayed by Ronald Tillery of The Memphis Commercial Appeal. "It has a lot to do with swelling…[The injuries] were pretty serious to my knowledge. I'm happy to get out of it successfully. My eye was swollen shut two days ago."
If he's on the court, that's good news for the Grizzlies, but it'll still be rather tough for him to stay in front of his backcourt assignment.
After all, Conley has been hobbling around on an injured foot, and Curry is difficult enough to guard while operating at 100 percent. Even though the Memphis 1-guard is a strong defender, it's not like anyone has been able to slow down this MVP candidate over a prolonged period of time.
And if Conley is out or incapable of rising to the challenge, the options get even more problematic. Neither Nick Calathes nor Beno Udrih will have much success slowing Curry, which leaves head coach Dave Joerger looking to bring over players from different positions.
That's where Tony Allen enters the picture.
Memphis' defensive tone-setter is fully capable of staying with Curry in on-ball situations. He prides himself on being able to shut down nearly any backcourt or wing player in the league, and he'll take any triple that the Davidson product buries as a personal affront.
There's a reason that even after missing 19 games during the regular season and not bursting onto the scene like some of the other candidates, Allen still finished seventh in the Defensive Player of the Year voting.
Actually, there are plenty of reasons.
But if Allen is on Curry, that's not the primary problem for the Grizzlies. The bigger question then centers around who's going to take care of Klay Thompson, because his size advantage over the point guard who likely switches onto him will be rather easy to exploit.
If Curry is hitting enough shots and doing enough damage that he forces the Grizzlies to engage in some cross-matching strategies, that'll be a major advantage for the presumptive series favorites.
Draymond Green vs. Zach Randolph
Though Zach Randolph was held in check nicely against the Warriors during each of their three regular-season meetings, he's still the one player on the Memphis roster most capable of giving Golden State plenty of trouble.
After all, he's a matchup nightmare for the Dubs, capable of establishing himself on the post and using his relentless physicality to score point after point with his back-to-the-basket moves and tenacity on the offensive boards.
But as Bleacher Report's Dylan Murphy astutely points out during a fantastic tactical breakdown of this series, it's the frontcourt combination that's truly terrifying for the No. 1 seed, not just Randolph's individual excellence:
"Golden State, despite its 67-win season and league-best 98.2 defensive rating, via NBA.com, has found itself in trouble against post-capable teams. Although Memphis only nabbed one out of three matchups against the Warriors this season, the Gasol-Randolph tandem dominated with 41 points in the lone win.
On the surface, the numbers seem to indicate that Golden State can more than handle opposing big men down low. According to Synergy Sports, they rank sixth in the league at defending the post one-on-one.
But in the context of the Grizzlies-Warriors series, that number is a bit misleading. Few teams feature dual threats on the block, and Memphis is one of them. Andrew Bogut, the interior big primarily responsible for the team's prowess in defending the post, cannot guard Gasol and Randolph at the same time.
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If Andrew Bogut is slowing down Marc Gasol, that leaves Draymond Green to do all the heavy lifting against Randolph. And at some point, you just have to feel bad for the Defensive Player of the Year runner-up, as he's now going from guarding Anthony Davis to checking a physical 4.
Per NBA.com's statistical databases, Green was actually quite good at defending post-up plays throughout the season. They accounted for 20.2 percent of his defensive possessions, and he allowed just 0.77 points per possession, putting him in the 70.2 percentile throughout the Association.
But how often did he have to slow down a block-bound monster like Randolph? During the regular season, Memphis' starting power forward put up 0.91 points per possession in post-up scenarios, and that accounted for 41.9 percent of his offense.
Making Green's job even tougher is the unfortunate reality that this won't be situational. He's not going to get reprieves often, as the Randolph-Marc Gasol pairing will force the Dubs to go big and leave Bogut on the opposing center as often as possible.
Who else on the Golden State roster is capable of handling Randolph?
David Lee isn't exactly a defensive stopper, unless that term serves to highlight the fact that he stops playing defense as soon as he steps foot on the hardwood. Marreese Speights isn't much of a point-preventing presence, either, and going small against Memphis' huge front line is a recipe for disaster.
It's going to be on Green, much like it was on him to keep Davis in check—to the best of his abilities, at least—during the first-round clash with NOLA. And that doesn't faze him in the slightest, as he typically makes up for his lack of inches in the height department with sheer strength and force of will.
"We come from the same place. It's a brotherhood back there. It builds and it lasts for a lifetime, regardless of whether you played together or not," Green told reporters, via Jeff Faraudo of the San Jose Mercury News, after a Monday practice, referring to the coincidence that both he and his upcoming assignment went to Michigan State.
"When you get the opportunity to play against guys from the same place that have been through the same things, that's a special moment to me."
It's only appropriate that they were both Spartans, because the battle for positioning on the blocks is going to be an all-out war.
Steve Kerr vs. Dave Joerger
The playoffs are often all about adjustments.
Those who can make them on the fly succeed, while those who can't end up floundering away until they're eliminated. In-game adjustments can change the course of a series, especially when coaches successfully anticipate the choices they have to make before the situation becomes truly dire. The decisions made between contests matter just as much.
In this second-round clash, will Dave Joerger's experience help him beat out Steve Kerr's impressive basketball acumen?
This is the first time Kerr has coached a playoff squad, and it's not as if he's faced too much pressure yet. The Pelicans ran the same offensive and defensive schemes they had for much of the regular season, and the fourth-quarter strategy often involved getting the ball to Davis and hoping for the best.
To his credit, Kerr did make some tactical adjustments. He used Shaun Livingston appropriately to get more size on the court against Tyreke Evans, and he shifted his rotations to make sure that either Curry or Thompson was on the floor during just about every important moment.
But he wasn't truly tested, and that's going to change against the Grizzlies. At some point, he'll have to figure out how to slow down the Gasol-Randolph combination. He may have to change his substitution patterns to take advantage of cross-matching with Allen.
Even though he's been a fantastic in-game coach throughout the season, nearly beating out Mike Budenholzer for Coach of the Year, we still don't know how he's going to react in a more competitive series. This is totally different than the 82-game campaign, because you have to beat the same team four times in a row.
Adjustments aren't just beneficial. They're vital.
Of course, it's possible for Kerr to shine during his first highly competitive playoff series. We know that for a fact, since that's exactly what Joerger did during his initial foray into the postseason as a rookie head coach last year.
The Memphis signal-caller spent the 2014 playoffs making one brilliant move after another, whether he was employing new schemes after a halftime discussion with his squad, going with two-point guard lineups to speed the ball around the perimeter or forcing other coaches' hands with continuous play from big lineups.
Now, it's time for his second go-round, this time against a regular-season juggernaut coming off a first-round sweep.
Experience is so often cited as an important factor in the playoffs, and that doesn't only apply to the players on the court. That's why, as crucial as the battle between point guards or the Spartan showdown may be, the tactical give and take on the sidelines will go just as far when determining which squad advances to the Western Conference Finals.
Adam Fromal covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter: @fromal09.
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