How Much Should Oklahoma City Thunder Spend on Enes Kanter in Free Agency?
The Oklahoma City Thunder’s search for a new head coach will dominate headlines, but general manager Sam Presti has one other major question to answer this offseason: How much is Enes Kanter worth?
Both sides have expressed a desire to work out a contract that will keep the young center in OKC. Presti indicated to Anthony Slater of The Oklahoman that he wouldn’t have traded for Kanter in the first place if he didn’t have a desire to re-sign him.
Likewise, Kanter has made numerous glowing remarks about the team and organization since his arrival. The big man discussed his impending free agency and love for OKC with ESPN.com’s Royce Young: "I love it here. Oklahoma City was obviously a good fit for me from day one. They opened their arms. I just like playing with all of these guys. They give 100 percent every time. I would definitely like to come back here."
Unfortunately, these negotiations aren’t based on that warm, fuzzy feeling alone. Kanter said all the right things in his recent exit interview, but money—as it does for so many free agents—will probably determine where he winds up.
With that in mind, how much should OKC be willing to spend on the talented young center?
The biggest question here is whether ownership is willing to spend the money, but these are the two other major factors Presti will need to evaluate as he prepares for negotiations with Kanter’s agent.
What Is the Market Like for an NBA Center?
Regardless of how much you think Kanter is worth, the reality is that the market dictates his value. Let’s take a look at the top 20 centers in terms of average annual salary:
| Chris Bosh | $23.7 | Joakim Noah | $12.0 | |
| Dwight Howard | $21.9 | Al Horford | $12.0 | |
| DeMarcus Cousins | $16.4 | Marcin Gortat | $12.0 | |
| Brook Lopez | $15.2 | Kevin Garnett | $12.0 | |
| Roy Hibbert | $14.6 | Andrew Bogut | $12.0 | |
| Marc Gasol | $14.4 | DeAndre Jordan | $10.8 | |
| Tyson Chandler | $13.9 | Tiago Splitter | $9.0 | |
| Al Jefferson | $13.7 | Jordan Hill | $9.0 | |
| Nene Hilario | $13.0 | Omer Asik | $8.4 | |
| Nikola Pekovic | $12.0 | Anderson Varejao | $8.1 |
Based on those players, Kanter probably fits in around the range of Tiago Splitter, Jordan Hill and Omer Asik. Unfortunately, it’s highly unlikely that Kanter will sign a contract in the neighborhood of $9 million.
He’ll be just 23 years old at the start of next season, and teams generally pay a little bit more for talented players at that age based on potential. A bigger concern for OKC is the looming salary-cap explosion. The cap is projected to skyrocket to approximately $90 million in 2016-17 according to Jonathan Givony of Draft Express, throwing all the current contract values out of whack.
We saw inklings of that in free-agent signings last offseason (like Alec Burks’ $42 million extension or Chandler Parsons’ $46 million contract), but it will probably occur at a higher rate this summer. It’s important to evaluate new contract values in terms of the coming salary cap, not just the current one.
Projecting that $9 million value to the new cap (in terms of percentage of cap) means that Kanter is looking at around $12 million per year.
Can OKC Compensate for His Defensive Shortcomings?
There aren’t many big men in the game with Kanter’s size (6’11”, 262 pounds) and offensive skills at the age of 23. During his 26-game stint with the Thunder, he averaged 18.7 points per game on 57 percent shooting from the floor. He also knocked down 78 percent of his free throws and grabbed five offensive boards per game (which would have been the second-highest mark in the league).
He’s an impressive passer, willing screener and skilled scorer on the block, capable of getting buckets with strength or great footwork. Furthermore, he was excellent in pick-and-roll situations and has already developed good chemistry with Russell Westbrook on those plays.
It’s difficult to imagine how opposing defenses can stop an OKC lineup featuring Westbrook, Kanter, Kevin Durant and Serge Ibaka. Even if the fifth member is an offensive non-factor like Andre Roberson, that lineup boasts a scoring punch like few others.
But is the offense good enough to offset Kanter’s defense?
Kanter doesn’t protect the rim, and his footwork is terrible in pick-and-roll coverage. The results were hideous toward the end of the season, when opposing players were getting to the rim at will. Over the last 15 games of the year, the Thunder conceded 49.5 points in the paint per game, a figure that would have been the worst in the league this season according to Team Rankings.
The entire roster deserves criticism, but opposing teams were putting Kanter in pick-and-roll situations, and he couldn’t move his feet well enough to slow them down. Of course, that stretch was also without Ibaka and Durant—two of the team’s best defenders—so it’s unfair to make a conclusive judgment from the small sample.
Then again, Kanter rated as the worst center in the league in terms of Defensive Real Plus-Minus this season, ranking behind such defensive luminaries as Andrea Bargnani, Matt Bonner and Chris Kaman, according to ESPN.com.
There is some room for hope, however. For starters, he’s still very young. Grasping the intricacies of NBA defense is a challenge for most big men, and he hasn’t had the best learning experience so far. He was ruled academically ineligible at Kentucky as a freshman and wasn’t allowed to play or practice with the team.
Though the Utah Jazz emerged as defensive stalwarts and an exciting young team under Quin Snyder this season, it was a fairly listless franchise previously under since-departed Tyrone Corbin. That too, may not have been the best environment for Kanter's development on the defensive end.
For Presti to sign Kanter to a big contract, he would have to bet that the Thunder's culture and history of player development will be what the big man needs to improve as a defender. Even becoming a league-average stopper would be good enough, considering his offensive abilities.
How Much Should OKC Pay?
The Thunder are in the envious position of having a starting-caliber center on their bench in Steven Adams. As a result, they won’t be held hostage by Kanter’s free agency. Presti will probably have a maximum figure in his head and will have the luxury of sticking to that number.
The aforementioned figure of $12 million per year is fair for what Kanter provides. Of course, for OKC to pay that kind of money, they’ll have to feel good about him making strides on the defensive end.
Kanter’s defense may not be a crushing liability in the regular season, but he would be a focal point for opposing teams' game plans in the postseason (just ask Dirk Nowitzki).
Considering his youth and offensive skills, it wouldn’t be unreasonable for OKC to sign a deal worth around $14 million per year. That looks bad in the short term, but with the way the cap is rising (reportedly to $108 million by 2017-18), that figure would look like a bargain if Kanter improves as a defender.
If another team wants to throw $15 million or more at him, Presti should let them do it.
Adams doesn’t have Kanter’s offensive game but is a much better defender and a very capable starter. Matching an offer sheet for $15 million per year wouldn’t hurt OKC’s chances of re-signing Durant (at least not financially), but it would make it more challenging to sign other free agents, like the two-way shooting guard the team desperately needs.
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