Portland Trail Blazers' Playoff Survival Depends on Damian Lillard's Awakening

The Portland Trail Blazers escaped the first round of the 2014 NBA playoffs thanks to Damian Lillard's heroics, and they'll need a similar effort from him this time around to conquer the Western Conference gauntlet.

However, the Blazers need more than Lillard's offensive dynamism to push them into the conference semifinals for the second consecutive season. 

After showing early signs of promise on defense following a shoddy sophomore season on that end, Lillard has declined as of late. That's weakened a Portland squad that was already hit with a crushing blow when Wesley Matthews went down with a torn Achilles in March. 

"I know, personally, people said a lot about what kind of defender I was," Lillard told Grantland's Kirk Goldsberry back in January. "So I wanted to get better at it."

But that just hasn't been the case. 

Although the Blazers rank a respectable No. 10 overall in defensive efficiency this season, that mark doesn't tell the full story. With Matthews sidelined, Portland has devolved into a jumbled wreck, ranking 24th in defensive rating (107.1). The Dallas Mavericks are the only Western Conference postseason qualifier with a more forgiving mark (108.6) in that span. 

Compounded with Lillard's gradual defensive regression, the short-handed Blazers should have their finger hovering over the panic button, as Grantland's Zach Lowe explained:  

For all the offensive gifts Lillard bears, his inability to lock up opposing point guards remains a blemish on his otherwise pristine resume. 

Date	Player	Points	Assists	Portland Result
April 1	Chris Paul	41	17	Loss
April 6	Deron Williams	24	10	Loss
April 8	Zach LaVine	18	6	Win
April 9	Stephen Curry	45	10	Loss

And with Stephen Curry, Chris Paul, Tony Parker, Rajon Rondo, Mike Conley and potentially Russell Westbrook leading their respective squads into the postseason trenches, it's still fair to question whether Lillard can hold his own as an on-ball defender against their relentless probing and dribble-drives.

As floor generals typically do, Lillard has spent more than half of his defensive possessions guarding ball-handlers in the pick-and-roll. But just because he's earning reps in that department doesn't mean Lillard's found his footing just yet. 

According to Synergy Sports data provided to NBA.com, Lillard ranks in the 39th percentile when defending the pick-and-roll. 

Furthermore, opposing ball-handlers would be wise to try to penetrate—for Lillard has been a sieve below the free-throw line. SportVU player-tracking data indicates that Lillard holds his own on the perimeter, but he gets gashed once opponents knife their way into the lane and surrounding areas. 

Distance	Opponents' FG% vs. Lillard	League Average FG%	Differential
Overall	44.6	44.0	+0.6%
3 Pointers	32.2	35.5	-3.3%
Less Than 10 Ft.	66.0	53.7	+12.3%
Less Than 6 Ft.	74.4	59.3	+15.1%

That's a glaring weakness opponents can't ignore—and one they will almost certainly attack on a regular basis come playoff time. 

Matthews is lost for the season, Nicolas Batum eternally deals with bangs and bruises of varying severity and Arron Afflalo is out one to two weeks with a right shoulder strain. So Portland no longer has the luxury of trying to hide Lillard on less potent scorers.

And since Lillard's potential defensive assignments—Paul, Parker, Conley and James Harden—all rank in the 84th percentile or higher as scorers in the pick-and-roll, he is almost guaranteed to have his hands full in the first round.

Here's the real eye-opener: When Lillard's on the floor, the Blazers defense shifts from great to average. Specifically, Portland allows 4.8 points fewer per 100 possessions with Lillard on the bench, which isn't worth overlooking. 

	Offensive Rating	Defensive Rating	Net Rating
Lillard On Court	107.7	102.5	5.2
Lillard On Bench	100.6	97.7	2.9

Now in his own words, Lillard has made a point to make an adjustment mentally—a key component he's just starting to grasp. 

"This year, I’m finally familiar with the terms I hear," Lillard said, per Goldsberry. "When teams call out plays, I’m familiar with what’s coming. The intellectual part really helps. When you first get into the league and you don’t know these terms, you’re lost." 

The unfortunate thing is Portland can't do much to work around Lillard's shortcomings. He's essential to everything the Blazers do on offense, whether that means driving and kicking out to shooters or roasting defenses with his steady three-point stroke. 

Sitting him for stretches isn't possible at this point, particularly with all of the injuries hampering Portland's depth on the wing. 

Sam Forencich/Getty Images

Rather, the Blazers must try to dismiss defensive demons on the fly, which they've failed to do of late. And with such an intense focus on what Lillard can offer, his fatigue level remains a real concern.  

Following Saturday night's 111-105 defeat at home to the Utah Jazz, Portland has lost three of its last four games, with its lone win coming over the Minnesota Timberwolves. 

"Whether [Aldridge] plays, whether Arron plays, whether Wes [Matthews] plays, we didn't have a defensive mindset," said head coach Terry Stotts after the loss to Utah, per The Columbian's Erik Gundersen. 

As a result, Portland has been stripped of home-court advantage in the first round, regardless of who its eventual opponent is, per CBS Sports' Matt Moore. So despite wrapping up the No. 4 seed by virtue of their Northwest Division title, the Blazers will host a maximum of three games at Moda Center in the first round. 

Month	Offensive Rating	Defensive Rating	Net Rating
November	121	102	19
December	116	102	14
January	102	107	-5
February	114	106	8
March	110	107	3
April	115	114	1

Considering the Blazers are allowing 5.3 points more per game on the road this season, losing home-court advantage in the first round could be the final straw if Lillard can't correct his defensive deficiencies in a timely fashion. 

"The Blazers are a middling 10-8 since Matthews’s devastating injury, and their defense ranks 20th in points allowed per possession since the All-Star break," Lowe wrote. "A dream season, frankly, looks ruined."

Now their lone shot at salvation rests on Lillard's ability to flip the switch at a moment's notice. 

And if the last two seasons have been any indication, the odds aren't in Portland's favor. 

All statistics are current as of April 12 and courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com and NBA.com, unless noted otherwise.