Memphis Grizzlies vs. Portland Trail Blazers: 1st-Round Analysis and Predictions
After a lot of back-and-forth scenarios during the final day of the regular season, the Memphis Grizzlies will match up with the Portland Trail Blazers in the first round.
Both teams are limping into the playoffs with some injuries, but they have enough healthy talent remaining to keep the fans entertained. These are two physical teams, which always makes for fun postseason action.
Memphis has had Portland's number in the regular season this year, sweeping the series. But all of that goes out of the window now, as the two teams will key in on each other in what should be a relatively even matchup.
Even though Portland gets the higher seed (thanks to the outdated division system), the Grizzlies will have home-court advantage.
Head-to-Head Record:ย 4-0, Memphis
| Date | Result | Note |
| Nov. 28, 2014 | 112-99, Memphis | Marc Gasol: 26 Pts, 9 Ast, 7 Reb |
| Jan. 17, 2015 | 102-98, Memphis | Beno Udrih: 17 Pts, clutch late |
| Feb. 22, 2015 | 98-92, Memphis | Memphis comes back from 13 down after three quarters |
| March 21, 2015 | 97-86, Memphis | All Memphis starters score in double figures |
Series Schedule
| Game | Date/Time (ET) | Location | TV |
| 1 | April 19, 8:00 p.m. | Memphis | TNT |
| 2 | April 22, 8: 00 p.m. | Memphis | TNT |
| 3 | April 25, 10:30 p.m. | Portland | ESPN |
| 4 | April 27, 10:30 p.m. | Portland | TNT |
| 5 (if necessary) | April 29, TBD | Memphis | TBD |
| 6 (if necessary) | May 1, TBD | Portland | TBD |
| 7 (if necessary) | May 3, TBD | Memphis | TBD |
Key Season Stats
| Team | Home Record | Road Record | ORtg (rank) | DRtg (rank) | Net Rtg (rank) | |
| Portland | 32-9 | 19-22 | 105.5 (8) | 101.4 (10) | 4.2 (5) | |
| Memphis | 31-10 | 24-17 | 103.1 (13) | 99.9 (4) | 3.1 (11) |
Portland X-Factor:ย C.J. McCollum
With Portland's backcourt in shambles, McCollum will have to be Damian Lillard's running mate. He has been fantastic in April, and his contributions will be crucial even if Arron Afflalo returns to the lineup.
McCollum has shown some pick-and-roll prowess in extended minutes, and he could be the difference-maker with the Grizzlies focused on Portland's primary offensive threats.
Memphis X-Factor:ย Jeff Green
Green hasn't quite boosted Memphis' offense to new heights since his arrival, but the Grizzlies traded for him with the playoffs in mind.
Memphis needed to bolster its perimeter offense, and Green has shown an ability to heat up in a hurry in the past. The Grizz will hope for several explosive scoring performances from him.
Player Efficiency Rating Comparison
Note: McCollum has been included in the comparison with Arron Afflalo (10.70 PER) sidelined with an injury. The same goes for the exclusion of the Grizzlies' Tony Allen (PER 14.68).
Three Pressing Questions/Strategic Keys
Health
It might be a mundane proposition, but relative health will be key in this series. Portland's Wesley Matthews is already out for the season, and Afflalo recently suffered a shoulder injury. If he isn't ready to go for Game 1, McCollum will step into the starting lineup.
While McCollum (who missed Portland's regular-season finale with an ankle injury of his own) is a competent replacement, the Trail Blazers backcourt is thin behind him and Lillard. Steve Blake is really the only player who is capable of logging playoff minutes off the bench.
Nicolas Batum is also out with a knee injury, and while the X-rays were negative, his status is still unclear.
The Grizzlies have picked up some nagging injuries of their own. Marc Gasol has been a little banged up, but the biggest concern lies in the backcourt. Mike Conley, arguably the team's most important player, is still out with a foot injury and withoutย a firm timetable for a return. The same goes for defensive ace Tony Allen.
These are some significant blows to both sides, and whoever gets their key players back first will have an upper hand.
Can Portland Keep Up Defensively?
The Trail Blazers lost their best perimeter defender in Matthews, and what has been a suffocating team defense all season long looks shaky at best right now.
Portland ranks 20th in the league in defensive efficiency since the All-Star break after ranking in the top four over the first 53 games of the season, per NBAMedia.com. That's a scary drop-off.ย
McCollum has made strides as a defender, and the Grizzlies don't necessarily have a supremely talented perimeter scorer. The Trail Blazers ranked 28th in the league in opponent three-point percentage during April, but Memphis isn't a good shooting team and doesn't do its damage from long range.
Even with Conley and Allen, the Grizzlies' two best perimeter defenders, sidelined, Memphis has remained an elite defensive team,ย and it's questionable whether Portland has the personnel to match that.
Battle Down Low
Both teams rely on their frontcourt for offensive production.ย
Gasol facilitates sets from the elbows, while Zach Randolph is a bruiser down low. Both guys can shoot from mid-range and are comfortable playing with each other, which partially makes up for the lack of shooting in other positions.
Portland has a similar match with its starting bigs. Robin Lopez gets to run some pick-and-rolls but is often the cleanup guy on the offensive glass and the beneficiary when LaMarcus Aldridge draws double-teams.ย
There will be a ton of pushing and shoving down low in this series. Aldridge, Gasol and Randolph are all in the NBA's top fourย this season in total post-up possessions, per NBA.com's Synergy stats.ย
Rebounding will also be key, and the teams are evenly matched in that regard. Portland ranks 10th in the league in rebound differential, while Memphis is a couple of spots below at No. 13, per ESPN.com.
Whichever frontcourt manages to get the edge could well win the series.
Why the Trail Blazers Will Win
They have one of the most unguardable post-up players in the league with Aldridge and a proven ice-cold crunch-time killer in Lillard. The duo has stepped up big-time in the playoffs in the past and will most likely bring it up a notch or two this time around as well.
Portland needs to have Batum and Afflalo back healthy, or the team's perimeter rotation will be thin. If they can both make it back in time for the postseason, Portland has enough weapons to advance.
Why the Grizzlies Will Win
It's been proved in the past that teams with a couple of All-Star-caliber players and a solid defensive base are tough to beat in the playoffs.ย The Grizzlies are slightly healthier (emphasis on slightly) than Portland, and they are tough enough to defuse their opponent's threats.
Gasol is having the best season of his career, and the Grizzlies' tight-knit core has gone through plenty of playoff battles in the past. If Conley returns for the run, Memphis is certainly a top contender in the West.
Prediction:ย Memphis wins 4-2.
You can follow me on Twitter: @VytisLasaitis
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