Who Are Experts Predicting to the Colts in the First Round of the NFL Draft?
With the NFL draft quickly approaching, mock drafts abound among NFL media.
What a time to be alive.
If you don't like the player one media member mocked to your favorite team, don't worry, there will be five new mocks by the end of the day. That may sound like an exaggeration, but it's really not. In order to find out who the experts are mocking to the Indianapolis Colts, I found 40 mock drafts from the last two weeks, from well-known media to lesser-known scouts.
The vast majority of the picks were defensive-oriented—of the nine players with more than one selection, just one was an offensive player. But that player has been mocked to the Colts as much as any other player over the last two weeks. The Colts could go in almost any direction come April 30, but here are the top players that experts are currently predicting to Indianapolis.
ILB Eric Kendricks, UCLA
1 of 9
Mock Draft Selections (March 24-April 7): Five
Analysis
Pete Prisco, CBS Sports: "This is a team wants to get more athletic at linebacker. Kendricks has the speed to stay on the field for all downs."
Curt Popejoy, Bleacher Report: "With the Indianapolis Colts running a 3-4, Kendricks could find a home at either inside linebacker spot. The Colts have D’Qwell Jackson and Jerrell Freeman there now, but neither bring the explosion and play-making ability of Kendricks."
Lance Zierlein, NFL.com: "The Colts have used free agency to tighten up in important spots. There is still room for an active inside linebacker who can lead a defense."
My Take
One of my favorite potential Round 1 selections for Indianapolis, Kendricks can be a force against both the run and pass, a huge need for the Colts. Both Jerrell Freeman (power run game) and D'Qwell Jackson (man coverage) have glaring weaknesses that have bitten the Colts in the past, and will continue to do so as neither linebacker is strong enough in other areas to offset the struggles.
Kendricks projects as a long-term core piece on defense, which is exactly what the Colts need to address early in this draft.
C Cameron Erving, Florida State
2 of 9
Mock Draft Selections: Five
Analysis
Charles Davis, NFL.com: "His move from LT to C during the 2014 season was impressive, and helped him move up draft boards. He gets to grow with QB Andrew Luck, and become what Jeff Saturday was to Peyton Manning in Indy."
Jason McIntyre, The Big Lead: "Huge needs addressed in free agency. The Colts are on the cusp of the Super Bowl. Erving will be insurance in case something happens to the OL; Castonzo is a FA in 2016, and three other lineman are FAs."
Ron Clements, Sporting News: "The Colts traded center Gino Gradkowski to the Broncos and used undrafted rookie Jonatthan Harrison to start 10 games last season. Erving would be a stark upgrade at the position. The 6-5, 313-pound Erving is strong, experienced and versatile."
My Take
While Erving isn't the only offensive player mocked to the Colts in the first round (offensive tackles aren't uncommon, and you'll see a running back here or there), he's the only one consistently mocked to the Colts in recent days.
I don't see offensive line as a great value for Indianapolis in the first round. The line isn't in as bad of shape as some people seem to think, and the team needs more impact players elsewhere. With two developmental guys (that the Colts seem to like) in Khaled Holmes and Jonotthan Harrison, using a first-round pick on a center seems out of place.
That being said, Erving seems to be a guy who could lock down the center position, and even potentially contribute elsewhere if need be. The offensive line could use another dependable piece, and Erving could help solidify the line. Erving may not be the best value here, but he might be one of the safer options.
DT Eddie Goldman, Florida State
3 of 9
Mock Draft Selections: Five
Analysis
Terez Paylor, The Kansas City Star: "Goldman is one of the best values on the board at this point. The film shows a big, powerful man with surprising burst for his size. There are questions about his lack of statistical productivity, but his sheer size and athleticism give him scheme versatility."
Steven Ruiz, USA Today: "The Colts have spent the offseason upgrading the offensive skill positions, but they’ll need to address both the offensive and defensive lines. Goldman should help an underwhelming run defense in Indianapolis."
Brian Baldinger, NFL.com: "Goldman's size and movement should help the interior of a Colts defense that needs bulk."
My Take
It's hard to disagree with Goldman at this point in the draft. He is one of a select few interior defensive linemen with playmaking potential that could be available at this point, a characteristic that the Colts will be searching for in a potential nose tackle after Josh Chapman's relatively neutral play helped result in thrashings by the New England Patriots last season.
Goldman isn't my favorite defensive lineman that could be available, but he's a decent option and has been linked to the Colts.
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S Landon Collins, Alabama
4 of 9
Mock Draft Selections: Five
Analysis
Dan Kadar, SB Nation: "The Colts have filled a lot of holes in free agency, but still don’t have a lot of talent at safety. Veteran Mike Adams is solid, but his career is winding down. But who is the other starting safety? Collins could be a nice complement to Adams and really give Indianapolis a good run-stopping safety."
Bucky Brooks, NFL.com: "The ex-Alabama standout is a versatile playmaker capable of playing down near the box or roaming as a deep middle defender."
Charlie Campbell, Walter Football: "The Colts need to bolster the middle of their defense. Mike Adams played well last year, but he turns 34 later this month. Collins will help their run and pass defense in the middle of the field."
My Take
This is one of the most common subjects of discussion among local media and fans, with Collins being the clear top safety in the draft. The LaRon Landry experiment cuts Colts fans deep, and the team is still looking for the long-term replacement for Antoine Bethea.
Collins is a very strong talent with obvious strong safety skills and coverage skills that should be good enough to pass in the NFL. He's no Earl Thomas type on the back end, but if the Colts used him correctly, he could be a starter at some point in his rookie year. He's not transcendent, however, and just because he's the draft's top safety shouldn't make him an automatic pick for Indianapolis.
OLB Alvin "Bud" Dupree, Kentucky
5 of 9
Mock Draft Selections: Three
Analysis
Rob Rang, CBS Sports: "The addition of front-seven defenders Kendall Langford and Trent Cole certainly adds to the pass rush but that may not stop GM Ryan Grigson from pulling the trigger should an athlete like Dupree fall into his lap. Dupree's length and agility make him tough for offensive linemen to handle; precisely why he left Kentucky as the SEC's active sacks leader."
Will Brinson, CBS Sports: "The combine freak fell a little further than expected here and with the Colts badly needing to get some more pass rush help, they snag the athletic edge rusher."
My Take
Most of the top edge-rushers are projected to go before the Colts' first pick, but if a high-upside guy like Dupree were to fall, it's an easy decision.
Sure, the 2015 group of outside linebackers is a bit crowded right now, but Trent Cole and Robert Mathis are aging fast, Erik Walden is expendable, and Bjoern Werner is looking more and more like a failed project. You can never have enough pass-rushers, and if that means making room for one on the roster, so be it.
CB Marcus Peters, Washington
6 of 9
Mock Draft Selections: Two
Analysis
Eric Galko, Optimum Scouting: "While Vontae Davis and Greg Toler are a plus-duo at cornerback, Toler is set to be a free agent in 2016. Peters could go much higher if his character isn’t a red flag for teams, and he provide a similar immediate impact that Bradley Roby brought the Broncos last year as a rotational/nickel cornerback."
Scott Carasik, Pro Football Spot: "The Colts need someone to be a long-term option as their No. 1 corner. However, they could also use some help right now as their No. 2 corner is the mediocre Greg Toler. Marcus Peters has had some issues off the field, but on the field, he's arguably the best coverage cornerback in the draft. Peters should be able to fit in very well with a Colts defense that attacks the ball."
My Take
I see Marcus Peters as the best press-man cornerback in this draft, and that's something the Colts should always be keeping an eye out for with their defensive scheme. The Colts don't have anybody in the works to take over for Toler after next year, and Toler's presence would give Peters some time to get his attitude right and work on his technique.
The Colts have done a good job developing cornerbacks with questionable futures, helping Vontae Davis hit his ceiling after a rough start in Miami and giving Darius Butler a spot to become a solid slot corner after being cut by New England to start his career. Chuck Pagano and his staff could potentially provide a similar situation for Peters.
CB Byron Jones, Connecticut
7 of 9
Mock Draft Selections: Two
Analysis
Dane Brugler, CBS Sports: "The Colts are in good shape at cornerback, but Greg Toler is in a contract year and Jones would be an ideal replacement for Indy's press coverage."
My Take
Jones' explanation is similar to the case for Peters, although it's a bit more projection with him. Jones is a freak athletically, more so than Peters, and doesn't have the same character concerns.
That being said, his tape isn't as good either, and he will need some work before being able to start. He could be an excellent starter down the road, but he's not as NFL-ready as Peters. So for me, this is a bit of a reach. I'd rather see the Colts go with somebody a bit more proven in the first round.
OLB Eli Harold, Virginia
8 of 9
Mock Draft Selections: Two
Analysis
Todd McShay, ESPN.com: "I'd like to give them an offensive lineman here, but there aren't any left worth taking in this scenario. Harold would provide the Colts with a young pass-rusher to develop behind veterans Trent Cole and Robert Mathis, as Bjoern Werner has yet to provide evidence that he'll develop into an impact player. Harold is raw and needs to improve his recognition skills and tackling ability, but he flashes very good upside as a pass-rusher and is also a good run defender."
Michael Middlehurst-Schwartz, USA Today: "The Colts need some athleticism at outside linebacker. Harold would give them plenty, while not needing to be much more than a situational pass-rusher as a rookie."
My Take
Harold is one of the fringe first-round edge-rushing talents, rather than one of the top guys who would have dropped here. That's not to say he isn't talented, and he certainly makes sense for Indianapolis, but calling this move a reach wouldn't be a surprise.
You can never have enough pass-rushers, but if there's better talent at other positions left on the board, I hope the Colts wouldn't pass it up. Still, Harold could fill a similar role as Dupree, getting rotational snaps as a rookie while being groomed to be Robert Mathis and/or Trent Cole's replacement.
DE Arik Armstead, Oregon
9 of 9
Mock Draft Selections: Two
Analysis
Josh Wilson, Stampede Blue: "The team's second-biggest need currently is their defensive line, and while they seem content with the current players they do have, I'd have to think that a player like Armstead would appeal to them. He's still a pretty raw player but he has incredible talent and potential that would make coaches really like the kid and could cause the Colts to take him. Given the current state of the defensive line the Colts could have Armstead play a notable role right away, but this pick would also be with the future in mind and give the Colts a good defensive line prospect with a lot of talent to work with moving forward."
My Take
I'm not sure if Armstead will still be available at No. 29, but if he is, he's one of a handful of ideal picks. NFL teams love upside, and Armstead has it in bucketfuls. At 6'7", 292 pounds with 33" arms, Armstead has the long, powerful body needed to be an ideal 5-technique.
With Cory Redding leaving, the Colts need a playmaking 5-technique to inject some life into the defensive line, especially long-term. While Armstead is a risk, it's the kind of risk you have to take to get studs this late in the first round.
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