Assembling Portland Trail Blazers' Ideal Playoff Rotation
It’s been a tumultuous month for the Portland Trail Blazers, who have gone just 9-6 through March after fighting through numerous injuries to key players. With the playoffs just weeks away, the Blazers must fast-track their adjustments and set a rotation for the postseason.
Head coach Terry Stotts often plays to matchups; hence, projecting the rotation could largely hinge on the opponent. But with Wesley Matthews missing the rest of the season due to injury, there must be a provisional idea of who will receive minutes down the stretch.
Finding five-man units that work effectively within Portland’s style is imperative, as the standard of play has dropped enormously. A defensive rating of 99.6, which was tied for No. 3 in the NBA prior to the All-Star break according to NBA.com, had opponents shaking in their boots sneakers when facing the Blazers.
Since then, this team has ranked just 24th in that department with a 104.5 mark.
Whether that’s attributed to the loss of Matthews or simply falling into old habits (Portland ranked 16th in defensive rating at 104.7 last season), a solution must be found in the future rotation.
The Blazers’ playoff run may depend on it.
The Starters
A month ago, predicting a healthy starting lineup for Portland would have been simple.
The five-man unit of Damian Lillard, Matthews, Nicolas Batum, LaMarcus Aldridge and Robin Lopez played a total of 1,372 minutes last season and has 629 minutes of run this year. It outscored opponents by 12.7 points per 100 possessions and converted 2.7 more three-point field goals, according to Basketball-Reference.com. In fact, it generally outperformed the opposing lineup in every major category.
But with Matthews down and out, Arron Afflalo has stepped into the starting 2-guard spot with mixed results.
Portland's new starting five has played 225 minutes together but is being outscored by 5.0 points and is committing 6.9 more turnovers than its opponent per 100 possessions. Much of that has to do with a lack of chemistry, which will come in time.
Afflalo has averaged 11.5 points on 45.3 percent shooting over his last 10 games, including a 21-point outburst over the Denver Nuggets on March 28, which is his game high with the Blazers.
Last season, the rest of the lineup received a decent uptick in minutes in the postseason. Lillard, Aldridge and Batum all averaged 40-plus minutes per game, with Matthews coming up short at 38.7. During 2013-14, no starter averaged more than 36.2 minutes.
Aldridge and Lillard will be heavily relied upon offensively, as they are averaging a respective 23.6 and 21.1 points thus far.
Aldridge ranks No. 1 among power forwards in terms of usage rate, per ESPN.com, which dictates how many possessions a player uses per 40 minutes. He is the key to Portland's offense, acting as the sole inside-scoring presence to set up the three-point shooting. Aldridge's post-up game will become invaluable down the stretch as well, as the half-court offense becomes more prevalent and the game slows down.
Lillard plays an equal part offensively, ranking No. 2 in the NBA in points off drives. He's shot 50.7 percent in this situation, with the Blazers scoring 12.2 points off Lillard's drives, per NBA.com. He's shooting a career-worst percentage from beyond the arc (34.0) despite a career-best 49.6 percent on two-point field goals.
Batum has been erratic for most of the year but has played his best basketball of the season since All-Star Weekend. His 10.8 points and 47.4/41.7/92.0 line are far superior to his 8.9 points on 37.4/27.1/83.3 prior to that. If that's any indication, Batum looks fully healthy going forward, and his shooting, distributing and defense will be crucial in Matthews' absence.
Lopez will just keep doing what he's doing, whether that's blocking shots, crashing the boards or laying down the law on some pesky mascots. His 9.6 points, 6.9 rebounds and 1.5 blocks are coming in just 28.2 minutes, and he may see increased PT in the playoffs if the Blazers face a frontcourt-heavy squad like the Los Angeles Clippers or the Houston Rockets.
The Bench
Portland's reserve unit isn't perfect but can get the job done.
A lot of fuss is made that it ranks No. 29 in the NBA in bench points, per Hoops Stats, which is fair enough. Having that instant offense can be a game-changing aspect of a team. But with the Blazers ranking No. 2 in terms of points scored by the starting lineup, per Hoops Stats, it isn't truly necessary to have an overload of offense off the bench.
Instead, Portland's reserves help out in other ways. They rank No. 13 in defensive rebounding, No. 8 in field-goal percentage and No. 1 in three-point percentage.
Steve Blake and Chris Kaman will prove to be highly useful down the stretch.
Kaman ranks No. 1 in scoring off the bench as a center, per Basketball-Reference, to the tune of 8.7 points and 6.7 rebounds on 50.4 percent shooting. He's aggressive going at defenders, with post moves or mid-range jumpers to give the Blazers another scorer who can get his own shot.
He'll split time with Lopez at center, perhaps playing more at the 4 depending on the situation.
Blake is No. 1 in point guard assists off the bench and No. 2 overall, trailing the San Antonio Spurs' Manu Ginobili by 12 dimes. His 4.4 points on 38.1 percent shooting (35.9 percent from three) isn't much, but his contributions in setting up the offense and defense more than make up for it.
C.J. McCollum is the only other backcourt reserve of note who will receive minutes, as Allen Crabbe and Alonzo Gee will play sparingly.
He works well as an off-ball shooter from long range but can also convert pull-up jumpers or drives to the rim. McCollum's minutes have jumped from 12.5 to 17.3 since All-Star Weekend, filling the void left by Matthews, which will likely continue into the postseason.
Freeland and Dorell Wright will absorb the leftover reserve minutes.
Freeland's rugged and physical play on the interior will be key, keeping possessions alive while defending the paint on the other end. He'll play a smaller role with Aldridge, Lopez and Kaman up front but will probably be the reserve power forward.
Wright can fill that role too, albeit as an undersized 4. He can rebound solidly at 6'9" and has a mean stroke from beyond the arc, converting 38.8 percent this season. Wright has averaged 9.6 points and 4.8 rebounds over his last five games, with 15 points against the Utah Jazz on March 25.
Meyers Leonard can have a unique impact for the Blazers at 7'1" with the offense of a much shorter player. He can defend and rebound in the paint on one end only to end up knocking down threes at the other. He ranks in the 94th percentile in spot-up shooting, per NBA.com, going for 50.5/42.7/92.6 on the season. Despite this, he won't receive much playing time purely because of the deep frontcourt rotation.
Overall
In retrospect, the starting unit of Lillard, Afflalo, Batum, Aldridge and Lopez is still a terrific group. It doesn't come close to the dominance of the one that included the Iron Man but will be able to hold its own in the Western Conference.
Aldridge and Lillard will have to do most of the heavy lifting, thereby playing more minutes. But Batum should be able to act as a third scorer if he's aggressive enough, as his passive play can sometimes stutter the offense, but he'll receive a plus-40-minute role alongside his two All-Star teammates regardless.
Afflalo and Lopez will be there as strong contributors in the low-to-mid-30s range but have Kaman, Blake, McCollum, Wright and Freeland to back them up. Leonard, Gee and Crabbe are not to be forgotten, though they may not be in the rotation.
Each reserve could see as many as 20 minutes or more, depending on the matchup, or not play at all.
In any case, the Blazers have a solid rotation that exhibits a lot of confidence and veteran experience that it didn't have this time last year. The glaring hole left by Matthews can't be filled, but Portland won't use that as an excuse.
Let's go, Rip City.
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