Projecting Indianapolis Colts' Depth Chart After Peak of Free Agency
With the majority of free agency complete, the Indianapolis Colts know the core of the 2015 roster. While some draft picks will be made and undrafted free agents added, most of the players that will make the 53-man roster are already signed to contracts in Indianapolis.
So it's time to begin looking ahead to the 2015 season.
Who can we expect to slot in as a starter or as a key backup on the 2015 team? To answer that question, we also have to answer the question of who will make the final 53-man roster. Again, with nine draft picks, there will be gaps, but today I sift through the current rostered players and attempt to predict who will still be around come Sept. 13.
This will change once we have the concrete draft picks, but with the core intact, we can come up with a fairly accurate prediction.
Quarterback
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Starter: Andrew Luck
Backup: Matt Hasselbeck
No surprises here, especially after Matt Hasselbeck was re-signed to a one-year, $3 million contract that will likely end his career in Indianapolis.
Andrew Luck is the future, however, as well as the present. Of course, the question isn't whether he will start, it's how good he'll be. Luck finished third in the league in passing yards in 2014, and led the league in touchdown passes. He cemented his status as the premier young quarterback while leading his team to the AFC Championship Game.
Now, it's time to see Luck's efficiency rise. Luck was just 11th in Football Outsiders' DVOA metric, something that former Colts quarterback Peyton Manning led the league in by his third season. As a result, the Colts offense was 17th in offensive DVOA, largely because of ill-timed turnovers and average red-zone and third-down conversion rates.
If Luck can raise his efficiency to elite levels, there will be no arguing his status among the NFL's upper echelon of QBs.
Running Back
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Starter: Frank Gore
Primary Backup: Rookie draft pick
Reserves: Dan Herron, Zurlon Tipton
The Colts signed former San Francisco 49ers running back Frank Gore to be the starter, age be damned. Just ask head coach Chuck Pagano, per CSNBayArea.com's Matt Maiocco:
"He’s a tough, hard-nosed, every-down back. He can play all three downs. He’s a great protector in pass-pro. He catches the ball out of the backfield. We all know what he can do as a runner on early downs. He loves football. He brings great passion. He brings great leadership and energy to our team and to our locker room. And he bolsters a position where we had a need.
"
But even with Gore, all signs point to Indianapolis spending a draft pick on a running back.
Dan Herron is an ideal third back with his ability to run and catch passes at an adequate level, but he lacks special qualities that would make him a fit as a key contributor.
With the 2015 draft being chock-full of talent at the position, the Colts would be wise to spend a pick in the second-to-fourth-round range on a running back. It just makes too much sense not to.
That young back could split committee duties with Gore in 2015 and be groomed for a future starting role.
Wide Receiver
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Starters: T.Y. Hilton, Andre Johnson
Third Receiver: Donte Moncrief
Reserves: Duron Carter, Vincent Brown
Like Gore, the Colts brought Andre Johnson in to be a starter and a key member of the 2015 squad.
But T.Y. Hilton is still the top dog, and deservedly so. Hilton was among the best receivers in the league in just about every metric, and he continues to be one of the league's premier deep threats. Despite being less than 100 percent at the end of the season due to a hamstring injury, Hilton caught 11 balls for 211 yards in the postseason, joining Marvin Harrison and Reggie Wayne as the only other receivers in Colts history to gain over 600 career receiving yards in the playoffs.
Johnson will fill the underneath No. 2 role, hopefully becoming a more efficient Reggie Wayne. His size and football IQ should make that a strong possibility. He should also function as the perfect mentor for Donte Moncrief, who has the size and speed to match any receiver in the league but needs to learn how to use it to his advantage.
Former CFL receiver Duron Carter should fill in as a developmental No. 4, with high upside but a lot of polish needed. Former San Diego Chargers third-round pick Vincent Brown was signed on Tuesday, per ESPN's Adam Schefter, and should fill in as another depth receiver unless the Colts draft a wideout in the mid-to-lower rounds.
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Tight End
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Starters: Coby Fleener, Dwayne Allen
Blocking Reserve: Jack Doyle
The Colts' base tight end group will be the same in 2015 as it has been for the last three years, with 2012 draftees Coby Fleener and Dwayne Allen leading the way.
Both players are critical to offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton's schemes, and 2014 saw the two used in a much more effective way as Hamilton grew more comfortable with their respective strengths. The last year of their rookie contracts, 2015 will be a huge year for both players.
For Fleener, the 2015 season needs to focus on improving consistency. Fleener had good overall receiving numbers in 2014, totaling 51 catches for 774 yards and eight touchdowns. But that was in a pass-heavy offense, and Fleener had just three games with more than 70 receiving yards in 2014.
The Colts need to see more big games from him, with less drops. Fleener has never caught more than 60 percent of his targets in a single season. For context, just 14 of the top 50 tight ends last season had a catch rate under 60 percent, per Football Outsiders.
The biggest thing Allen needs is to stay healthy. He missed all of 2013 with a hip injury, and numerous injuries in 2014 hindered him at various times. His potential as a versatile, unique weapon is clear, but he must stay completely healthy to reach that potential.
Offensive Line
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Starters: Anthony Castonzo, Jack Mewhort, Khaled Holmes, Todd Herremans, Gosder Cherilus
Reserves: Joe Reitz, Hugh Thornton, Ben Heenan, Jonotthan Harrison, Lance Louis, rookie draft pick
This is the most difficult grouping for me, given the vast amount of different combinations possible.
Just look at the starting lineup, for example.
Khaled Holmes will be competing for the starting center job with Jonotthan Harrison. Holmes won the job at the end of 2014, but Harrison has a higher ceiling. Herremans will be competing with third-year guard Hugh Thornton, with reserve guards Joe Reitz (an always-dependable option) and Lance Louis (less likely) fitting in the mix somewhere as well. Gosder Cherilus should be the starter at right tackle, but if he doesn't heal well from his offseason knee scope, who knows?
The back end is just as difficult to project. Former CFL lineman Ben Heenan may fit in there somewhere, but maybe not. There will probably be at least one or two draft picks in the rotation, and that may affect the starting lineup as well, but that's a complete question mark.
If they can get a group to stay somewhat healthy, the Colts offensive line will be fine.
Defensive Line
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Starters: Kendall Langford, Josh Chapman, Arthur Jones
Reserves: Zach Kerr, Montori Hughes, Rookie draft pick, Kelcy Quarles
On the defensive side of the ball, the trenches are a little easier to decipher. The starting lineup is likely set, with newly signed Kendall Langford filling Cory Redding's old role as the 5-technique defensive end. Unless a nose tackle is selected in the first round and is deemed ready to start from Day 1, Josh Chapman will likely return as the starter, despite a disappointing 2014 season.
The Colts really need a rebound season from Arthur Jones in 2015. He was a free-agent signing in 2014, but injuries hampered his play at times and he finished the season with the defense's second-lowest Pro Football Focus grade.
The team will also expect young linemen like Zach Kerr (second year) and Montori Hughes (third year) to step up in 2015, potentially setting themselves up for future starting roles.
Outside Linebacker
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Starters: Robert Mathis, Trent Cole
SOLB Reserves: Erik Walden, Bjoern Werner
ROLB Reserves: Jonathan Newsome
With the addition of Trent Cole and potential return of Robert Mathis, the Colts outside linebacker group has suddenly gotten surprisingly crowded.
Cole and Mathis may be the starters in name, but the two will see limited snaps as their age presents a challenge to keep them fresh all season. Mathis may not even be ready to start the regular season. He told Fox Sports' Alex Marvez on Tuesday that he has yet to start running, but that he hopes to be ready for training camp.
All three of the Colts' reserve outside linebackers have starting experience, although second-year outside linebacker Jonathan Newsome's starting experience is limited at best. Walden has become one of the more dependable members of the front seven, despite his reputation, but the Colts hope Bjoern Werner can develop more in his third season and eventually take his role as a strong-side outside linebacker.
Inside Linebacker
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Starters: Jerrell Freeman, D'Qwell Jackson
Reserves: Henoc Muamba, Nate Irving
The Colts inside linebackers are a dependable group of tacklers, but that's about the only redeeming quality that sets them apart, at least based on 2014.
Both Jerrell Freeman and D'Qwell Jackson struggled in big ways in 2014, with Freeman getting stuck against the run too often and Jackson getting exposed through the air. Both were, well, embarrassed in the season-ending loss to the New England Patriots, and the Colts could very well be looking for potential replacements in the NFL draft.
The depth behind the two was very thin going into free agency, so the Colts signed former Denver Broncos linebacker Nate Irving in free agency. Irving is a strong run-stuffer, but he can be had in coverage and is recovering from an ACL tear. Don't be surprised if the Colts look for an inside linebacker in the first three rounds of the NFL draft, especially if one of the top guys drops.
Cornerback
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Starters: Vontae Davis, Greg Toler
Nickel Corner: Darius Butler
Reserves: Rookie draft pick, Deveron Carr
For the third consecutive season, the Colts' top three cornerbacks will return.
Vontae Davis, Greg Toler and Darius Butler have played very well together when healthy, and the position is the defense's strongest unit. Toler is inconsistent, but when playing opposite Davis, anybody will get picked on. Davis emerged as one of the league's top press corners in 2014, and Butler has made a nice little career for himself as a slot cornerback in Indianapolis.
The depth behind those three, however, is currently nonexistent. The team did sign former Tampa Bay Buccaneers cornerback Deveron Carr after a strong performance in the veteran combine, but he's no sure thing. A young addition from the draft would be a welcome addition, especially with Toler's contract expiring after 2015 and no replacement currently in sight.
Safety
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Starters: Mike Adams, Rookie draft pick
Reserves: Dewey McDonald, Winston Guy, Colt Anderson
The most questionable position group on a questionable defense, the Colts desperately need to add a safety to the current group.
The team made the smart move by bringing veteran safety Mike Adams back on a two-year deal. Adams made the Pro Bowl as a reserve in 2014 and is a dependable (albeit unspectacular) option on the back end.
But Adams currently has no partner, with reserve safeties Dewey McDonald (an undrafted rookie special teamer in 2014) and Winston Guy (a former Jaguar who spent 2014 on the Colts practice squad) as the best options. Colt Anderson is a special teams captain, but not a viable starting option.
A rookie addition is possible if one becomes available, but the draft is weak at the position. Still, either a rookie or another veteran signing is the best option for another starter at this point.
Specialists
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Kicker: Adam Vinatieri
Punter: Pat McAfee
Long Snapper: Matt Overton
The best special teams trio in the league will be back in 2014. Vinatieri and McAfee both made the Pro Bowl in 2014, a well-deserved honor for the pair. Both signed big contracts in 2014 and rewarded the Colts with impressive seasons.
McAfee was Pro Football Focus' second-highest graded punter in 2014, and Vinatieri missed just one field goal all season. With long snapper Matt Overton, a strong teammate and community member as well as dependable long snapper, returning, the group should remain intact for the foreseeable future.
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