Mirotic Making NBA Rookie of the Year Race About More Than Just Wiggins

As we headed into the All-Star break, it seemed like a foregone conclusion that Andrew Wiggins of the Minnesota Timberwolves was going to win the Rookie of the Year. But the Chicago Bulls' Nikola Mirotic is making this a far closer—and more unconventional—race than we’ve ever had before.

We can distill the conversation down to one simple question: Is the award intended for the rookie who accomplishes the most or the one who plays the best? On the surface, it might not seem there is a distinction here, but there is.

The reason they seem similar is that on most occasions they have the same answer. The players taken at the front of the draft tend to be the best rookies. The most promising prospects are drafted to bad teams, so they play more minutes.

Because they are better players, playing more minutes, they do more.

Gary Dineen/Getty Images

As a result, the fewest minutes ever averaged by a Rookie of the Year winner is 29.1 by Mike Miller in 2000-01. The only other winner to come in under 30 is Tom Heinsohn in 1956-57 with 29.9. So it might seem insane to toss out the idea of seriously considering a player who isn’t hitting 20.

But this year, the rookie who is doing the most and the one who has played the best are clearly different answers, mainly because Andrew Wiggins has played significantly more minutes than Mirotic.

Mirotic’s situation is different. He was selected 23rd in 2011 by the Houston Rockets, and rights to him acquired by the Bulls in a trade. He was a “draft-and-stash” player, full of promise but on a lengthy contract in Real Madrid. Thus, when he came over, it was as a player both drafted below his “station” and to a better team than premier rookies typically end up playing for.

He was a “draft-and-stash” player, full of promise but on a lengthy contract in Real Madrid. Thus, when he came over, it was as a player both drafted below his “station” and to a better team than premier rookies typically end up playing for.

He is stuck behind Pau Gasol, an All-Star, and Taj Gibson, last year’s second-place finisher for Sixth Man of the Year. Thus, his lack of minutes isn’t a reflection of his quality of play, as is typically the case with rookies.

Who Has Done the Most?

Rookie of the Year can more or less be predicted by the cumulative total of points, rebounds and assists, per Kevin Pelton of ESPN.com, who wrote:

"

Of the past 26 Rookie of the Year awards, 25 have gone to the player with the highest combined averages in points, rebounds and assists per game. (The one exception? Amar'e Stoudemire over Yao Ming in 2003.) That history favors Carter-Williams, who leads all rookies in points (16.1), assists (6.3) and rebounds (6.1) per game, not to mention steals.

"

And Michael Carter-Williams won. So now it’s 26-of-27.

I looked at the top first-year players based on the conventional box-score numbers. Other than Mirotic and Wiggins, the top candidates are Elfrid Payton of the Orlando Magic, Nerlens Noel of the Philadelphia 76ers and Marcus Smart of the Boston Celtics.

First, let’s look at which players have done the most. I added in steals and blocks for the benefit of Noel, whose best case is his defensive numbers.

In the following chart (and all those following) you can hover over the color to get the exact details. You can also click on the players’ names to get the sum of their total stats.

The columns are stacked to give a “total stats” impression, but that shouldn’t be viewed as the be-all and end-all of the argument.

Adjusted Stats

If we’re going by convention here, Wiggins is going to win. But does that mean he should? Part of the problem is that there’s usually not such a distinction between best and most prolific. Last year, for example, Carter-Williams wasn’t just the leader in total stats, he was also the leader in total stats per 36 minutes.

And that is where this year is unique. When viewing minute-adjusted stats, Mirotic clearly stands above the rest.

And if you prefer to see pace-adjusted stats, here is how the top rookies fare per 100 possessions.

Either way, Mirotic is clearly outperforming the other candidates when he’s on the court, illustrating that there is a clear distinction this year between who plays the best and who plays the most.

Some would argue, though, that traditional box scores don’t mean that much. Or that these numbers show nothing about efficiency, only volume. So here’s a look at win shares per 48 minutes, Player Efficiency Rating, effective field-goal percentage and true shooting percentage.

So not only is he playing the most effectively, he’s also shooting the most efficiently. He leads the contenders in effective field-goal percentage and true shooting percentage, which is ironic when you consider how some use shooting to justify knocking him down in their rankings.

NBA.com's Scott Howard-Cooper, in his last Rookie Ladder, says of Mirotic:

"

The leading contender just past halftime for Rookie of the Month in the Eastern Conference, probably by a lot, is averaging 20.3 points in March outings and has failed to score at least 15 points just one time this month. The 40.6 percent overall and 27.3 percent behind the arc looks bad -- putting him at 39.7 and 32.3, respectively, for the season -- but the Bulls keep feeding Mirotic the ball. A lot. He is taking 14.8 shots a game in March, about eight more than any other month. Plus, 8.1 rebounds.

"

You'd almost think Mirotic has no shooting skill, but this: 

Howard-Cooper is missing three things in his criticism.

First, all the rookies are shooting badly. On the season, Mirotic is the best of the candidates in effective field-goal percentage. So it’s a bit disingenuous to single him out for it.

Second, Mirotic is getting to the charity stripe a lot. His free-throw rate (free throws per field-goal attempt) is a ridiculous .472, particularly for a guy who is shooting 80 percent from the charity stripe. In fact, only seven rookies with 500 field-goal attempts have ever had a higher free-throw rate and free-throw percentage. And none have more threes.

Third, Mirotic is first from two-point range among five candidates at 49.8 percent. He’s taking more threes, which pulls down his overall field-goal percentage. But he has the best two-point field-goal percentage, best effective field-goal percentage and the best true shooting percentage of the ROY hopefuls, but somehow efficiency is an argument against him?

The Best of the Best

However, Howard-Cooper thankfully also argues for Mirotic:

"

Needing to make up ground while coming from back in the pack, Mirotic has the one advantage no other primary challenger for the award can match: the Bulls' record. True, Marcus Smart might make the playoffs with the Celtics or Bojan Bogdanovic may do so with the Nets. But Chicago is playing for No. 2 in the East. All the while, Mirotic is playing big minutes on the kind of platform few first-year players ever get.

"

Because of the minutes issue, I agree that Mirotic has to make up ground, although I might disagree with how much distance there is to make up.

March is really the first time this season where Mirotic has seen extensive minutes. And he’s done the most with it. The stretch is easily the best by any rookie this year.

But some would argue that it’s not fair to “just count the last month.” And that’s a perfectly valid argument. At the same time, they didn’t stop the season in January and give the award to Wiggins. March shouldn’t be all that counts, but it should count some. How about exactly as much as January?

Here are the splits for each of our five in their best month of the season.

Mirotic is better overall, and when each of the rooks is at their best, he outshines them even more.

The Narrative

But let’s say, for the sake of argument, that the whole “per minute” thing is bogus—that you can’t just pretend that a player is going to continue production at the same rate on a different team with worse teammates.

Let’s set aside that this notion has been debated, and in actuality, players tend to be more likely to have their numbers go up than down when they get more minutes. Let’s also set aside that Mirotic plays better when he gets more minutes.

Rather, let’s accept the notion that all we can do is evaluate a player for what they’ve done on the team that drafted them. Those drafted by inferior teams have the benefit of getting more minutes. For Mirotic, there’s the benefit of more meaningful minutes.

On March 23, Mirotic had a big game against the Charlotte Hornets, scoring 28 points, with 14 of those coming in the fourth quarter. That prompted NBA.com/Stats to tweet this:

And ESPN Stats & Info to tweet this:

After the game, Sam Smith, writing for Bulls.com, quoted Jimmy Butler:

"

Dude can play. He’s basically carried us this month, to tell you the truth. He’s confident. I think he’s only going to continue to get better because he’s always in the gym working on his game and it shows.

I knew it was just a matter of time before he got that confidence in the game. He just starts playing and not looking over his shoulder.

"

He quoted Pau Gasol:

"

What Niko is doing right now with this team in the situation we are in, I think, is remarkable. He’s doing great. You have to give him a lot of credit and I hope he continues to play at this level for us the rest of the way.

This month he has been spectacular. It’s very difficult for a rookie to put up numbers like that, but obviously he has experience, has been an outstanding player for a couple of years in Europe. He is flourishing in front of us, doing a great job, great things, great poise, too. I love it and it helps us a lot.

"

That’s the Bulls' two All-Stars with nothing to do but effuse praise for how their rookie is carrying them in the clutch during the closing stretch of the season. And how often do you see that? I’m not asking rhetorically, I actually looked it up.

What Mirotic is doing is pretty impressive. He already has 90 fourth-quarter field goals (40 in March). That might seem like “so what,” but it’s pretty impressive. How often are veteran-laden teams with All-Stars and championship aspirations relying on rookies with the game on the line?

The last player on a top-four seed and an All-Star teammate to have as many fourth-quarter field-goals is none other than Tim Duncan of the San Antonio Spurs back in 1997-98.

It’s appropriate that the Bulls clinched a playoff spot on another big night from Mirotic in that Hornets win. He carried the team with Derrick Rose and Butler injured. And shouldn’t playing better in critical minutes down the closing stretch of the year trump playing more minutes in January?

The ultimate argument might have inadvertently come from Tom Thibodeau. A coach notorious for not playing rookies and not resting his stars gave Joakim Noah the night off because he had enough confidence in Mirotic to carry the team.

Think about it. Thibodeau rested Noah because he believed in a rookie. My brain keeps trying to process the thought, but every time it crashes and returns a blue-screen error. It’s that weird.

If the Rookie of the Year is strictly a volume-based award that goes to the player who posts the most total box-score numbers in a season, then Wiggins is your man. But Mirotic is not only the best rookie on a per-minute basis, he’s the most important in terms of winning. If you’re willing to account for that, he deserves the award.

Stats for this article were provided by Basketball-Reference.com and NBA.com/Stats.