Projecting Portland Trail Blazers' Best and Worst 2015 NBA Playoff Matchups
The calendar year of 2015 has not been kind to the Portland Trail Blazers.
The team has gone just 18-17 since New Year’s Day, which is a far cry from the 26-7 record it held up to that point. Per NBA.com, the Blazers held a stellar defensive rating of 99.6 (No. 4) until the All-Star break, which has dropped to a dismal 103.9 mark (No. 24) since then.
It's a monumental collapse, which is highly concerning as the playoffs approach.
Injuries have decimated the team’s flow over the course of the year, losing Robin Lopez for an extended stretch, competing without LaMarcus Aldridge and Nicolas Batum in spurts and now going forward without Wesley Matthews due to a torn Achilles tendon.
Thanks to some expert coaching and a cohesive group, the Blazers have managed to float in the middle of the standings for most of the season, currently sitting at No. 5 but just one and a half games away from dropping to No. 7.
Simultaneously, Portland is only two games back from the No. 3 seed. Go figure.
Therefore, it makes chalking up potential playoff opponents for the Blazers very difficult. But with some careful problem-solving skills, a few matchups can be predicted and then judged as to whether they’d be ideal for Portland.
Best: Dallas Mavericks
The Dallas Mavericks might have snatched a win away from the Blazers on Feb. 7, going on a 13-2 run in the last two minutes to force overtime, but Portland has the edge in the season series, 2-1, courtesy of some terrific defense, which makes this an ideal matchup.
The Mavs offense excels at creating space through ball movement, opening up the floor for perimeter shots in pick-and-roll and drive-and-kick situations. Dallas knocks down 9.3 three-point field goals per game and leads the league in points off drives with 35.6, courtesy of NBA.com.
Things have slowed down a little since the acquisition of Rajon Rondo, as his poor shooting (28.6 percent on jumpers, per NBA.com) limits the offensive approach. It’s no coincidence the Mavericks have an offensive rating of 105.4 with Rondo on the bench, as opposed to the 102.8 rating when he’s on the court, per NBA.com.
During the two games prior to his arrival in Dallas, the Blazers held the Mavericks to 87 points on Nov. 6 and 96 points over 48 minutes on Feb. 7 before they caught fire for 15 points in overtime.
With Rondo in the lineup on March 5, Portland allowed just 75 points on 37.5 percent shooting and just 12.5 percent (2-of-16) shooting from three-point range. Across all three games, the highest conversion rate Dallas has been able achieve is 41 percent.
The Blazers have evolved into a strong defensive team on the perimeter despite the relative lack of focus on that end in 2015. But with a philosophy that outlaws double-teams, the defense is able to clamp down on the three-point line, leading the league in opponent three-point field goals at just 6.2 per game.
On the other end, the Mavericks don’t quite have the personnel or identity to fully impact Portland’s offense. They rank No. 21 in opponent points per game, No. 29 in opponent three-point field goals per game and No. 25 in opponent three-point percentage.
Running a smooth offense that looks for open shots is the Blazers’ speciality, going for No. 9 (tie) in points per game, No. 3 (tie) in three-point field goals per game and No. 8 in three-point percentage.
You guys do the math.
Worst: Memphis Grizzlies
The Memphis Grizzlies have gone 4-0 against the Blazers to this point, playing smart basketball on offense and defense to take control of the season series.
Both teams match up well strictly in terms of roster, and even have similar outputs on each end. The Grizzlies’ offensive and defensive ratings of 103.4 (No. 14) and 99.8 (No. 3), respectively, mirror the Blazers’ marks of 105.2 and 100.6 (both rank No. 7 in each category), per ESPN.com.
But Memphis has done an expert job of forcing Portland out of its comfort zone while exploiting its weaknesses.
Grizzlies point guard Mike Conley has gone right at Damian Lillard offensively, to the tune of 19.0 points and 8.7 assists on 51.2 percent shooting. Lillard isn’t an established defender just yet, and it’s the weakest part of his game at this point.
Conley’s 21 points and nine assists on March 21 is an example of this, as he shot a blistering 72.7 percent from the field in 34 minutes. But the most impressive aspect is his distributing, as Conley has dropped a total of 26 assists with just two turnovers across three games.
Yes, you read that right.
Newcomer Jeff Green has been an X-factor for Memphis, as he’s averaged 17.3 points and 6.3 rebounds while shooting 51.3/57.1/100 against Rip City’s defense.
In addition, guard Courtney Lee has managed to boost his scoring from 10.3 points during the regular season to 16.3 when facing the Blazers, shooting 56.7 percent from the field. Both Green and Lee have averaged 2.7 made three-point field goals versus Portland in the series.
It might be a stretch, but it’s certainly possible that everything correlates to Lillard’s subpar defense. Conley is able to maneuver with the basketball, efficiently scoring on Lillard or passing to perimeter players (namely Green and Lee) for easy buckets if the defense is forced to help.
And that applies to the team as a whole, as the Grizzlies have put up the seventh-most points per game, the third-best shooting percentage from the field and the best conversion from deep (50.9 percent) of all the Blazers’ opponents this season, per NBA.com.
Versus Memphis’ spectacular defense, Portland has managed to notch just 93.8 points on 40.5 percent shooting and 33.6 percent shooting from three-point land. The team has still knocked down 10.0 three-point field goals per game in the series, but the efficiency just hasn’t been there.
Unless the Blazers undergo an unforeseen transformation, this team will be unable to keep up with Grizzlies as currently constructed. It leaves them undermanned with Matthews out, but it’s possible that even his presence might not have changed things.
Stay out of those lower seeds, Rip City.
All in All
Whichever team Portland is presented with to open the postseason must be ready, as this group is mentally strong and highly competitive. That could be said about any team, but Aldridge and Co. seem to never be rattled.
The countless come-from-behind wins the Blazers have managed to snatch this season are an example. Lillard’s cold-hearted shooting in the clutch and controlled demeanor means you can never count him out.
Batum has struggled all season to shoot the ball effectively due to a lingering injury, but he's continued to push through despite his percentages dropping below 30 in some cases.
Aldridge’s fortitude offensively goes without saying, and the team’s scoring as a whole works like clockwork if the outside shot is falling.
But Portland’s defense must return to its old self, or at least something that resembles it. The Blazers’ postseason run will be short-lived if they can’t keep up in that department, especially against the many contenders in the West.
But if there’s any team that can surprise everyone and defy logic, it’s Rip City.
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