It's Now or Never for Dion Waiters to Salvage His Reputation for OKC Thunder
It is simultaneously the best opportunity of Oklahoma City Thunder scoring guard Dion Waiters' NBA career and one that nobody wishes was in front of him.
With the Thunder's rotation ravaged by injury, it's in dire need of assistance for one-man wrecking ball Russell Westbrook. Given the lack of quality cards left in coach Scott Brooks' hand, a fingers-crossed gamble that Waiters will finally figure things out is among the best—read: only—moves OKC can make.
As unbelievable as that may sound, the team's health curse is even harder to fathom.
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Serge Ibaka, perhaps the league's only great shooter and shot-blocker, could miss the next 4-6 weeks following arthroscopic knee surgery. Reigning MVP Kevin Durant might be lost for even longer.
The six-time All-Star has been "removed from basketball activities" after failing to make progress with his twice-surgically repaired right foot, general manager Sam Presti announced Friday (via ESPN.com's Royce Young). When pressed whether the team was shutting down Durant, Presti responded, "Essentially, that's the direction we're headed right now."
Enes Kanter sat out Friday's 123-115 win over the Atlanta Hawks with a sprained ankle. Brooks announced Saturday that Nick Collison will miss at least 10 days with his own sprained ankle, per Darnell Mayberry of The Oklahoman.
Apparently when it rains in the Sooner State, it pours acid from the skies. The Oklahoman's Anthony Slater noted the impact injuries has had on the team this season:
This could all add up to an "unlikely but desperately needed" blessing for Waiters. And in some ways that's fitting, since his entire basketball story could be summed up in blessings and curses.
The blessings have been plentiful: requisite size and athleticism, supreme confidence, fearlessness. But his main curse has possessed supernatual power: an unquenchable thirst for more. More touches, more shots, more responsibility, more prestige.
That insatiable appetite sent his basketball stock plummeting shortly after becoming the fourth overall pick in the 2012 draft. The hardwood never seemed big enough for both he and former teammate Kyrie Irving to work in tandem. Less than three seasons after selecting Waiters, the Cleveland Cavaliers sent him packing via a three-team trade in January.
Moving from one star-studded roster to another did nothing to change his high-volume, low-efficiency approach. He shot a lowly 40.4 percent on 15.7 field-goal attempts per 36 minutes with Cleveland this season. In Oklahoma City, he has converted just 37.9 percent of his looks and still fired them up at an almost identical rate (15.3 per 36).
Considering the "quality" of those looks, it's somewhat surprising that success rate isn't worse.
"Waiters is mostly taking some of the most godawful off-the-dribble 2s you’ll ever see," wrote Grantland's Zach Lowe. "I'm pretty sure he set an unofficial league record for layups that hit only the backboard against Boston on Wednesday."
Waiters' player efficiency rating during his 34 games with OKC is a putrid 9.3. Of the 243 players who have logged at least 1,000 minutes this season, only 10 have a PER south of 9.3.
He is not a player any franchise would want in charge of its fortune. But what other choice do the Thunder have?
Westbrook is doing everything he can to keep hope alive. He's averaging 32.9 points, 10.9 assists, 9.7 rebounds and 2.1 steals over his last 15 outings. There is no higher level for the fiery floor general to reach above his current post.
And Oklahoma City knows that.
"The Thunder's situation has been laid out in front of them clearly," Young wrote. "They understand where they are. They know what they're missing. They aren't replacing any of that."
The ball is literally and figuratively in Waiters' court.
Outside of Westbrook, no healthy player on the roster averages more points than Waiters' 11.5. Anthony Morrow is close at 10.1, but he's a shooting specialist who doesn't play much defense. D.J. Augustin is next at 8.9, but he plays the same position as Westbrook.
Waiters has to play the savior's role, even if his history suggests he isn't built to play the part. Desperate times call for insane measures. And good luck finding a situation more desperate than this.
That's why Brooks is leaning on Waiters and hoping for a miracle. Following Friday's win, Brooks told reporters that he's been spending extra time working with the volatile 2-guard of late, per Young:
The outing itself was packed with promise.
Waiters overstuffed his stat sheet with 26 points, three boards, two blocks, two assists and one steal in 37 minutes. The numbers looked good on their own, but the real intrigue came from the way he compiled them.
"Eight of his 11 makes were in the paint on a variety of smooth finishes," Anthony Slater of The Oklahoman noted.
Waiters has the strength, explosiveness and creativity to live around the rim. But his aggressiveness has too often taken what could be a potent weapon out of his arsenal.
For his career, his average field-goal attempt has come from 13.5 feet away from the basket. That's nearly three feet further than Westbrook's (10.9), despite both holding similar three-point percentages for their careers (31.9 for Waiters; 30.4 for Westbrook).
Waiters' problem is a dangerous affinity for the inefficient mid-range. Nearly 35 percent of his career attempts have been taken between 10 feet from the basket and the three-point arc. Analytics don't like that shot, and his own stat sheet isn't a big fan, either.
| 2012-13 | 53.8 | 30.7 | 33.3 | 40.9 | 31.0 |
| 2013-14 | 52.5 | 28.8 | 44.9 | 43.1 | 36.8 |
| 2014-15 | 49.1 | 34.4 | 42.5 | 38.3 | 26.4 |
| Overall | 52.0 | 31.1 | 41.3 | 41.0 | 31.9 |
Only a handful of players can spend a majority of their time in the mid-range and consistently contribute. Waiters isn't one of them.
His game log is a dizzying ride of peaks and valleys. He's finished as many games with 20 points this season as he has with five or fewer (eight each).
But aggressiveness can help bring that roller coaster to a halt. He's attempted at least six free throws in 28 games over his career. In those contests, he's averaged 20.6 points on 43.8 percent shooting. Overall, he's put up 13.9 points on 41.4 percent shooting during his first two-plus seasons in the league.
The Thunder can't afford volatility at this point. Not with a mere two games separating them from the ninth-seeded New Orleans Pelicans.
Oklahoma City has to get the good Waiters on a nightly basis. The one who finds shots within the offensive flow, attacks the heart of the defense and scraps at the other end.
The one that hoop heads have seen glimpses of in the past but never had a long look at.
This is the biggest test of Waiters' career. No one is likely to ever need his contributions this badly again, particularly if he fails the exam.
But opportunity is undoubtedly knocking. It's unfortunate that it is, but the NBA can be a cruel business.
Waiters has to turn OKC's tragedy into his personal triumph. It's the chance he's always wanted to prove his worth, and his ability to handle it could determine the trajectory of his NBA existence.
Unless otherwise noted, statistics used courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com and NBA.com.
