How the Indiana Pacers Are Becoming an Under-the-Radar NBA Playoff Wild Card
The Indiana Pacers have won 10 of their last 11 games and 15 of their last 19. Impressed yet?
Over the last month and a half, the Pacers have scratched and clawed their way into the Eastern Conference's playoff picture to the point that ESPN's Playoff Odds give them an 89.2 percent chance of making the postseason, projecting Indiana as the likely seventh seed (with the Cleveland Cavaliers as their projected opponent).
The battle to get into the playoffs is almost over. Now, the Pacers are preparing to make some noise once they get there.
Since Jan. 25, the Pacers have been outscoring their opponents by an average of 8.7 points per 100 possessions, according to NBA.com. That mark ranks second in the NBA over that time span, trailing only the Cleveland Cavaliers. It would also rank second in the NBA to the Golden State Warriors if stretched across the entire season.
Think about that. This Pacers team, without Paul George, after losing Lance Stephenson, is producing like a team that many have as a favorite to win the NBA title. Sure, it's just a 19-game stretch, but getting to that level, given all the challenges they've faced, is an enormous accomplishment.
The most important element for the Pacers is that they've been scoring an average of 106.5 points per 100 possessions over that stretch—fifth-best in the league, and roughly equivalent to the rate the Warriors have scored.
The Pacers defense has continued to be terrific. A lack of efficient scoring has been an Achilles' heel for years, but maintaining this level of performance would theoretically remove the ceiling on what this team can do.
To illustrate their offensive improvement, check out their shot charts from two different segments of the season. Here is their offense through the first 45 games:
Here is how things have looked over the last 19:
As a group, the Pacers have been scoring more efficiently around the basket, from mid-range and from the three-point line. It's a roughly similar distribution of shots between the two charts, just with a much healthier rate of return recently.
Jan. 25 stands out as a turning point, not just because of the team's win-loss record since, but because it's when George Hill returned to the lineup. The stretch of great basketball we've seen is really the first time all year the Pacers have had their full roster healthy and ready to play (with the exception of Paul George, who we'll get to in a minute).
Hill is having a career year and has been hugely important for the team's offense. Rob Mahoney of Sports Illustrated broke down some of the specific ways in which Hill has been breaking out:
"[George] Hill's short work this season has been more spectacular than most know. Very quietly the 28-year-old guard has managed his best season to date – a mature, composed effort on a team that needs him desperately. His role has changed with the times. No longer is Hill a mere game manager for a post-centric outfit, but a genuine creator who draws more than 40 percent of his own possession usage from the pick-and-roll, per Synergy Sports. In those scenarios, Hill maxes out his efficiency not through explosion, but precision. Only one other player in the league to tally 50 pick-and-roll possessions or more has registered as low of a turnover rate on those plays as Hill.
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Hill is averaging 0.86 points per possessions as a scorer in the pick-and-roll. That places him in the 75th percentile, right between Detroit's Brandon Jennings and Portland's Wes Matthews. It's also just behind teammate Rodney Stuckey, who is also working on a career year himself.
Together, Hill and Stuckey have offset much of the deficit in off-the-dribble shot creation the Pacers have had this season without Lance Stephenson or Paul George.
The fact that Stuckey, a career 30.2 percent three-point shooter, is knocking down 39.8 percent of his threes this season means he has almost completely filled the offensive skill gap left by Stephenson's departure for the Charlotte Hornets. Along with Hill, the strong play of the Indiana backcourt explains a lot of the change in the shot charts above.
The one caveat to this run is that the Pacers have been working through a softer spot in their schedule. Of their 15 wins, seven have come against the Orlando Magic, Philadelphia 76ers and New York Knicks. However, they've also beaten the Golden State Warriors, Chicago Bulls and Cleveland Cavaliers, taking down LeBron James' team twice.
If the Pacers can maintain this level of offensive efficiency, they can realistically challenge anyone in a playoff series.
The team also has a potential ace up their sleeve—Paul George.
George has yet to play this season while rehabbing from a catastrophic broken leg suffered in a Team USA scrimmage this past summer. However, he has been practicing with the team for several weeks and has hinted at returning sometime soon.
Publicly, the Pacers have said they're not counting on George's return. Here is head coach Frank Vogel saying all the right things a few days ago, via Shaun Powell of NBA.com:
"Honestly, we're not even thinking about Paul right now. How effective is he going to be having not played in a year? This is a serious injury. He still has a lot of hurdles to pass before he even gets back on the court. We're trying to become the best possible team we can be without him and if he gets back, that's just going to be a bonus.
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No matter what they're saying publicly, George's possible return has to be on the organization's radar.
It would be foolish to expect him to immediately return to his All-Star performance levels from last season. In fact, analysis I did last week suggested that players who have missed as much time as George typically return to about 70 percent of their previous performance levels in their first 20 games back. Even if George was only able to give the Pacers 70 percent of last season's production, he'd still be the most productive player on the team.
The bottom line is that with the long-awaited arrival of health and continuity, the Pacers have been playing as well as anyone in the league.
Their point differential and performance against some of the top teams in the league implies that they'll be a stiff opponent for anyone in the first round of the playoffs—much tougher than their overall record would indicate.
And if Paul George really is just over the horizon, in the words of Kevin Garnett, anything is possible.
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