A Paul George Return Could Be Bad News for Eastern Conference Playoff Field
It was a welcome sight to see for the Indiana Pacers and a terrifying one for the rest of the Eastern Conference.
Paul George, Indiana's All-Star swingman and one of the NBA's premier two-way players, participated in his first full practice Thursday since suffering a compound fracture in his right leg during a Team USA scrimmage last August.
"Felt good. Felt really good," George said after the practice, per Candace Buckner of the Indianapolis Star, "to be able to go through a full practice now and go up and down, it's a big step for me."
It's also a potentially monumental lift for a Pacers team that already appeared to be hitting its stride. In the month of February alone, Indiana has defeated the league's best team (Golden State Warriors) and claimed two victories over the hottest team in the East (Cleveland Cavaliers).
Behind a triple-double from George Hill (15 points, 12 assists and 10 rebounds) and a major lift from spark-plug reserve Rodney Stuckey (team-high 19 points), the Pacers scratched out a 93-86 win over the Cavs on Friday.
By any measure, Indiana has performed at a level matched by few others this month.
| Winning Percentage | .778 | First |
| True Shooting Percentage | 56.0 | Second |
| Net Efficiency Rating | Plus-5.0 | Fifth |
| Point Differential | Plus-3.6 | Seventh |
But adding George, who said he's still hoping to make his return near mid-March (via Buckner), could put this team on a different plane still.
Despite their recent success, the Pacers need George's offense in the worst way.
Hill leads the team with 13.6 points per game, which ranks 80th among all NBA scorers. George put up 21.7 points a night last season and 17.4 the year prior. During that two-season stretch, only 10 players in the entire league tallied more total points than his 3,114.
And scoring is only a small portion of what he brings to the hardwood.
In 2013-14, he posted team highs of 1.9 steals and a 20.1 player efficiency rating. He ranked second among Pacers regulars in both rebounds (6.8) and assists (3.5).
Offensively, he spent the past two seasons transforming from a complementary piece into a high-volume, highly efficient focal point. In 2013-14, he had the 20th-highest PER among the 120 players with a 25-plus usage percentage (minimum 50 games played).
At the opposite end, the 6'9" wing with a 6'11.25" wingspan, per DraftExpress, has placed himself in even more exclusive company. He had the most defensive win shares in 2012-13 and second-highest total the following year. He had the third-best defensive rating during both of those seasons and has finished with a top-10 steals average in three of his four NBA campaigns.
"He's got [Scottie] Pippen's body and [Allen] Iverson's instincts in terms of using his hands to disrupt," Vogel told ESPN The Magazine's Pablo S. Torre last February. "If Paul didn't score a point—a point—he'd still be a top-15 player in the game."
That's the caliber of player the Pacers could be getting back soon.
Based on his track record, that means better days are ahead for Indiana at both ends of the floor.
If George can return to action this season, Pacers fans should feel comfortable shopping for playoff tickets.
Of the six teams separated by 2.5 games for the East's last two postseason spots, none are playing as well as Indiana. And while the Pacers' future looks bright, the opposite could be said of a lot of the clubs around them.
| Miami Heat | 25 | 32 | .439 | -- | 4-6 |
| Indiana Pacers | 24 | 34 | .414 | 1.5 | 7-3 |
| Charlotte Hornets | 23 | 33 | .411 | 1.5 | 4-6 |
| Boston Celtics | 23 | 33 | .411 | 1.5 | 7-3 |
| Brooklyn Nets | 23 | 33 | .411 | 1.5 | 5-5 |
| Detroit Pistons | 23 | 35 | .397 | 2.5 | 5-5 |
The Miami Heat will be without Chris Bosh the rest of the way, who was arguably their most important offensive player for his ability to space the floor and a key defender for his versatility. The Brooklyn Nets tried pulling the plug on their expensive roster, but the price of their players scared off potential buyers. So, Lionel Hollins' team will proceed for the time being with a group short on top-level talent and rising prospects.
The Charlotte Hornets are still missing Kemba Walker, whose absence has only compounded their offensive issues. The Detroit Pistons and Boston Celtics both have inexperienced rosters that are adjusting on the fly to significant trade-deadline acquisitions (Reggie Jackson and Isaiah Thomas, respectively).
If the Pacers get George back, they'll have 80 percent of a starting lineup that played in each of the last two Eastern Conference Finals. That familiarity should allow for as smooth a transition as one can expect under these circumstances.
It took a couple months, but Indiana has started learning how to play without him. The developments made in his absence—a more aggressive Hill, a deeper collection of shooters, a more-comfortable-by-the-day Stuckey—will make George's life easier once he returns.
With the Pacers sitting this close to the playoffs, they won't need him to immediately assume his superstar role.
"George could make a difference in that race even if he's not able to play at an All-Star level," wrote Yahoo Sports' Eric Freeman.
But the frightening prospect for the rest of the East is the possibility of that dominant player still surfacing yet this season.
If the Pacers get that Paul George back, they'd immediately become a nightmare first-round opponent. As long as Indiana avoids that buzz saw in Cleveland, the Pacers could challenge whichever team they face in the opening round.
The top-seeded Atlanta Hawks are better than last season, but they have a lot of the same pieces from the team Indiana dispatched in seven games. The top three scorers of the second-seeded Toronto Raptors all shoot below 42 percent from the field, a potential recipe for disaster against an Indiana team that had the league's stingiest defense each of the last two seasons.
The Chicago Bulls are back to playing the waiting game with the injured Derrick Rose. The Washington Wizards are trapped in a tailspin. Offensive consistency remains an issue for the defensive-oriented Milwaukee Bucks.
The East is littered with vulnerable teams, and the Pacers might have what it takes to pick one of them off. It's hard to make a convincing argument that any of the conference's other clubs sitting on the playoff fringes could do the same.
The NBA will be a better place if George can come back, and the Eastern Conference will be considerably scarier.
Unless otherwise noted, statistics are accurate as of Feb. 27 and used courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com and NBA.com.
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