Amar'e Stoudemire Now Becomes Best Free Agent Available on Midseason Market
Amar'e Stoudemire was liberated from the New York Knicks via a buyout Sunday, and it might surprise you to know he's the best unaffiliated talent available at the moment.
Why is that surprising?
Mainly because the most notable aspects of Stoudemire's recent career have been missed games, declining athleticism and wine baths. He's been sidelined for 110 of 365 possible contests since signing a five-year, $100 million contract in 2010 and hasn't been a regular starter since way back in 2011-12.
Remember, it wasn't so long ago that Stoudemire's name was big enough to attract superstars, as Knicks forward Carmelo Anthony told Peter Botte of the New York Daily News shortly after hearing the buyout news:
Injuries have been the primary culprit in STAT's decline, robbing the center/forward of his elite athleticism and turning a six-time All-Star into a part-time post specialist.
His skills today don't come close to matching his price tag, though you can't blame him for the way his body broke down, as Chris Herring of The Wall Street Journal notes:
The calculus has changed now.
Instead of paying $20 million for a guy who averages 12 points and 6.8 rebounds per game, some risk-tolerant team will be able to get that production on a short-term deal worth as little as the veteran's minimum.
Funny how drastically reducing the potential cost of an asset alters the analysis.
Now, instead of a cap-crushing albatross, Stoudemire is an intriguing buy-low candidate with upside.
Stoudemire, 32 and nothing like the above-the-rim monster he used to be, can still score (54.3 percent from the field). He can also rebound. In fact, his rebound rate of 16.5 percent is better than it's been since 2006-07, according to Basketball-Reference.com.
Perhaps that's why teams like the Dallas Mavericks and Los Angeles Clippers are interested, according to ESPN's Marc Stein:
The fit with the Clippers is easy to see. Stoudemire fills a gaping hole in the frontcourt. With power forward Blake Griffin recovering from surgery on his shooting elbow, the Clips have had no choice but to dramatically increase Spencer Hawes' role.
With no capable NBA bigs on the bench behind Hawes, L.A. is in desperate need of a presence up front.
The Mavericks are another intriguing option, as they have yet to find a replacement for Brandan Wright since trading him in the Rajon Rondo deal. Current Mav and former Knicks teammate Tyson Chandler sees the potential, per Tim MacMahon of ESPNDallas.com:
Chandler's right. Stoudemire has been a beast in the pick-and-roll for his entire career. At his peak, his roll game made him one of the most terrifying down-the-lane rumblers in league history.
It's too bad the Knicks' adherence to the triangle offense all but nullified the most dangerous part of Stoudemire's game. They used him as the roll man on just 10.3 percent of his possessions this season, per NBA.com. He's averaged 1.05 points per play as a roller.
Compare that to his post-up usage, which comprised a whopping 46.4 percent of his offensive plays in New York and yielded 0.96 points per play, and it's remarkable that Stoudemire has remained a very productive scorer this season.
If Dallas or any other interested team puts Stoudemire to better use, it's possible his contributions could be far larger than his stats with New York indicate we should expect.
Seriously, it's not rocket science. Let this dude roll:
There are major caveats to acquiring him, of course. Stoudemire's body may not be up to the challenge of heavy pick-and-roll usage, which would relegate him to post-up duties. There aren't many contending teams that survive on a heavy diet of stagnant dump-it-in-and-watch sets—not in today's spaced-out, three-happy NBA.
Stoudemire may not be able to diversify his game enough to have a real role on a team that has an up-to-date offensive approach.
No matter where he ends up, his role will have to be kept simple. He's always been turnover-prone, and his turnover rate is up to an alarming 14.7 percent this year, according to Basketball-Reference.com.
Give him the ball in positions to score quickly, and good things happen. Ask him to make a decision, and you're begging for a mistake.
There's also the question of his defense.
Though there's been quiet improvement this year—ESPN.com's real plus-minus rates him as a minor positive on both ends of the floor—Stoudemire is still laterally slow and constantly fails to make basic help rotations at the rim.
Part of that may stem from playing in a Knicks system that hasn't exactly been huge on defensive accountability, but he was never a stopper in his prime either. Wherever he goes, he'll do best if there's a sound system in place. If there's also a shot-blocking center in the picture, all the better.
If you're a contender with a hole at power forward—or even undersized second-unit center—this is your low-stakes gamble. What if getting out of New York rejuvenates Stoudemire? We've recently watched Chandler turn back into the dynamic game-changer he once was after looking washed up last year with the Knicks. What if Stoudemire's headed for the same rebirth?
Isn't that worth a flier? When you consider the alternatives out there on the free-agent market, he starts to look even better.
- Andray Blatche may stay overseas.
- Ray Allen and Jermaine O'Neal aren't sure if they want to lace up their sneakers ever again.
- Emeka Okafor—remember him?—is available, but when's the last time anybody heard a peep from him or his camp?
Stoudemire looks to be the pick of the litter right now, and we should expect him to have his choice of homes.
He won't turn an afterthought into a contender or a title hopeful into a favorite, but he can definitely help if the conditions are right. We'll soon see who's willing to give him a chance to try.
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