5 Free Agents Who Won't Be Signing with the Indianapolis Colts

There will be a plethora of free agents available in this year's free-agency class, and the Indianapolis Colts will have the financial ability to sign pretty much any of them. 

With over $33 million in cap space, per Spotrac.com, the Colts can adjust contracts in different ways to sign big-name players or a multitude of smaller deals. But who can we realistically expect to see in Indianapolis? 

Fans and media love to speculate and daydream about what the team would look like with "Player X" or "Player Y," but that doesn't make those dreams anywhere close to a reality. 

While I'm not a mind-reader, and Ryan Grigson has demonstrated his willingness to defy expectations (see Richardson, Trent), there are a multitude of factors we can assess to find a few key players that most likely will not be wearing Colts blue in 2015.

DT Ndamukong Suh, Detroit Lions

Tony Gutierrez/Associated Press

*Cue the angry mob.*

I know, I know, Ndamukong Suh is the most highly coveted free agent by the majority of Colts fans, not to mention many of the local media members. Just ask Gregg Doyel of the Indianapolis Star, who says that Suh "makes the Colts a Super Bowl team."

Well, maybe. 

The problem isn't that Suh isn't talented. He is. He might be the most talented free agent available this offseason. 

The problem is the cost, even if guys like Doyel brush it off. No, I'm not talking about Suh's attitude problems, his stomps or his infamous reputation with referees, although that shouldn't be completely ignored. 

I'm talking about the literal cost. The likely-more-than-$100-million-over-six-years cost.

According to Justin Rogers of MLive.com, it's not just possible, but likely that Suh's new contract exceeds the megadeals that J.J. Watt and Gerald McCoy signed last summer. Fans of a Suh-Colts deal say the team can solve this problem by front-loading the deal, but that's less feasible than people want to believe.

According to Joel Corry of CBS Sports, the Colts' cap room is more like $26 million after the team hands out restricted free agent tenders and accounts for rookies. Even if you cut some veterans to free up space, there's likely little more than $30 million total to work with. Even if you front-loaded all of that onto Suh's deal for 2015, it would leave them paying over $14 million per year over the final five years on a six-year, $101 million contract. 

And that doesn't even begin to touch on the numerous other holes the Colts need to address in free agency. 

Some teams can afford to sign defensive tackles to huge contracts. Those teams usually don't have a highly-paid quarterback, and they certainly don't have a quarterback who's going to be the highest paid signal-caller in the league from 2016 onward. 

Combine all that with Suh's off-field antics, a transition from a 4-3 to a 3-4 and the fact that he may not even get out of Detroit in the first place, and you get a scenario that's not nearly as realistic as what some people seem to be selling.

RB DeMarco Murray, Dallas Cowboys

Brandon Wade/Associated Press

The Colts are going to be looking for a free-agent running back this offseason; that seems all but guaranteed. 

With Zurlon Tipton as the only guy guaranteed to return next year (Trent Richardson being a cut candidate, Daniel Herron being a RFA and Ahmad Bradshaw being an UFA), the Colts are in a bind. They need help at the position, probably both with a free-agent signing and a draft pick. 

But if they are dipping into free agency, there are multiple angles that make more sense than signing DeMarco Murray. 

Murray is likely to get the biggest contract of the year in the running back market, but like my B/R colleague Cian Fahey, I think the hype is outweighing Murray's future productivity.

While he's a good player, Murray was helped tremendously by one of the league's best run-blocking lines in Dallas, along with a quarterback-wide receiver combo that made defenses wary on every down. While Andrew Luck would be a threat that could complement Murray, the Colts offensive line is a far cry from the Cowboys'.

The Colts need a multifaceted weapon that can be a threat in both the run and passing game while not being a complete injury and fumble risk. If Adrian Peterson and Marshawn Lynch hit the market, then we can talk about premier running backs maybe making sense in Indianapolis. 

And no, we shouldn't be using the Trent Richardson trade as justification for Grigson's potential willingness to spend premium money on a running back. Richardson cost a first-round pick, but the Colts thought they were getting a young, cheap (in terms of contract) workhorse who could grow up with Luck and T.Y. Hilton. Grabbing a veteran in free agency isn't quite the same thing.

WR Randall Cobb, Green Bay Packers

Rogelio Solis/Associated Press

There are several high-end wide receivers who are due new contracts this offseason, such as Dez Bryant, Demaryius Thomas and Jeremy Maclin. But those three seem unlikely to leave their current teams, while Randall Cobb will likely fall victim to a loaded Green Bay roster. 

So, the problem with Cobb-to-Indianapolis isn't that he won't hit free agency, it's that Cobb is going to want No. 1 wide receiver money. 

It's not to say that Cobb doesn't deserve that kind of money. He caught 91 balls for nearly 1,300 yards and 12 touchdowns this season, after all, and did it at an absurdly efficient rate. Cobb caught 72 percent of his targets in 2014, and led the league in DVOA at 35.5 percent, according to Football Outsiders.

That kind of success deserves a big contract. 

But while I would love to see that kind of weapon teamed up with Andrew Luck, the Colts aren't really in the market for a No. 1 receiver. They have a No. 1 receiver, and his name is T.Y. Hilton. And he'll be getting that big contract in 2016. 

What the Colts need is a strong complementary receiver, and one who is willing to get paid like one.

DE Greg Hardy, Carolina Panthers

Chris Keane/Associated Press

If fans think Suh would be a bad public relations move given the team's recent off-field troubles, bringing in Greg Hardy would really ruffle some feathers. 

Hardy missed the entire 2014 season after he was placed on the NFL's exempt/commissioner's permission list while his domestic abuse charges were resolved. The charges were dismissed by the state earlier this week, but there is still the possibility he gets suspended by the league.

With the NFL's disastrous attempts to deal with domestic violence this past season, Hardy's reinstatement (at least without some kind of punishment) is still a bit of a question mark. He'll likely play somewhere in 2015, but where and exactly how much is still up for interpretation. 

The Colts need another headache and question mark like they need to spend another first-round pick on a running back.

Plus, Hardy will still be expensive, and he's a natural 4-3 defensive end, not a versatile 3-4 linebacker.

OLB Justin Houston, Kansas City Chiefs

Reed Hoffmann/Associated Press

This one actually does hurt to write. 

Justin Houston is exactly what the Colts need: 

• He's an explosive edge-rusher, ranking as Pro Football Focus' top-graded 3-4 OLB in each of the last two years and racking up 43 sacks in the last three years. 
• He's a 3-4 fit, something that is hard to find among the elite talents in this year's free-agency pool. 
• He's overcome character concerns in the 2011 draft (due to a failed drug test) to become a model teammate in Kansas City. 

If the Colts were to pony up a superstar contract for one player this offseason, it should be Houston. 

But, unfortunately, that's exactly why the Kansas City Chiefs won't let him hit free agency. While the team and Houston have been nowhere close in long-term contract discussions, CBS Sports' Jason La Canfora says the Chiefs will franchise Houston this offseason, locking him up for at least one more year in Kansas City. 

That's the problem with having a lot of cap space: The players that you actually want to pay rarely leave their respective teams, so the money isn't as useful as you'd think unless you're re-signing slam-dunk draft picks.

All contract information comes from Spotrac.com, unless otherwise noted. All player grades come from Pro Football Focus, and all statistics are from Pro-Football-Reference.com, unless otherwise noted. 

Kyle Rodriguez is Bleacher Report's lead featured columnist for the Indianapolis Colts. He is also the editor-in-chief of Colts Authority and Colts Academy and a PFWA Dick Connor Writing Award recipient. Follow him on Twitter for year-round Colts and NFL analysis.