Texans Quarterback Ryan Mallett Should Remind Us of Matt Flynn

The Houston Texans punted a conditional seventh-round pick to the New England Patriots when they acquired quarterback Ryan Mallett on Aug. 31, 2014.

It's hard to say they were disappointed with the return: one impressive debut against Cleveland and one fall from grace against Cincinnati in a game during which Mallett tore his pectoral muscle. Now a free agent, the team has little to go on as it tries to figure out Mallett's NFL future.

The drumbeat in Houston has been steady since Mallett went on injured reserve. According to NFL.com's Ian Rapoport, the Texans want him back and think he can compete for a starting job. However, Jets owner Woody Johnson hired former Texans Director of College Scouting Mike Maccagnan as New York's general manager, and he may have taken Houston's interest in Mallett with him.

At least, that's the word from Kristian Dyer of Metro:

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That could mean the Jets making a move for a veteran such as Jake Locker or Brian Hoyer. In addition, the source said that he believes that general manager Mike Maccagnan, formerly of the Houston Texans, is 'intrigued in the idea of Ryan Mallett' being part of the quarterback competition.

'Mallett and the Jets are a natural fit,' the source said. 'He'd be interesting in a quarterback competition to say the least.'

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We don't have much more information on Mallett than we did at the end of 2014, when the former third-round pick was dealt to the Texans. Mallett proved in brief preseason looks that his accuracy was going to be a problem for any team thinking of starting him.

Year	Completions-Attempts	Yards	YPA	TD/INT	Sacks
2012	33/67 (49.3%)	300	4.5	3/1	2
2013	42/76 (55.3%)	447	5.9	3/1	1
2014	14/26 (53.8%)	161	6.2	1/0	3

He had an impressive start against the Browns in Cleveland, where he completed 20 of 30 attempts for 211 yards and two scores. However, the Texans were in control of the game from the get-go, which allowed head coach Bill O'Brien to coordinate a short-passing plan that kept Mallett making easy, strong-armed throws.

According to Pro Football Focus' Robert Habib, Mallett's average time to release the ball in that game was just 2.06 seconds (faster than any QB in the league).

There are also reasons to doubt that Mallett's woeful start against the Bengals accurately reflected his ability. We have no idea when he was hurt and how long he was throwing with a torn pectoral muscle, and trying to get O'Brien to share that information is like asking him to reveal his PIN number.

Ultimately, Mallett reminds me a lot of when Matt Flynn became a free agent. Both had one excellent start, both had one poor start, and we didn't have much more NFL data on them than that.

Flynn	COMP-ATT	ANY/A	Sacks	DVOAs
Mallett	COMP-ATT	ANY/A	Sacks	DVOAs
	73/115 (63.4%)	7.05	12	47.3%, -15.9%
	41/75 (54.7%)	4.54	1	54.5%, -17.5%

These quarterbacks both have different weaknesses: Flynn can't throw deep, whereas Mallett, despite his cannon arm, has scattershot accuracy. The general statistical model is about the same, and both entered free agency with supporters and boosters based on their big game.

Flynn received a three-year, $19.5 million deal with $10 million in guarantees from the Seattle Seahawks. Such is the demand for even the potential of a quality starting quarterback.

He threw only nine passes for Seattle after losing the quarterback competition to some third-round rookie named Russell Wilson. He then quickly proved in Oakland that his ceiling as a starting quarterback was not worth the original contract.

He's since settled back in Green Bay with a backup role.

This isn't to say Mallett is going to wind up like Flynn. He has a much better downfield arm, which will always keep teams interested. He had a higher draft stock coming out (74th overall vs. 209th overall), and I'd say he has a higher ceiling.

But teams that get in bidding wars over untested quarterbacks have often come away unimpressed with the results. If Mallett were to have star-quarterback upside, the Texans would have figured it out sooner than they did.

Ultimately, whether he winds up with the Texans, the Jets or elsewhere, Mallett is going to have to be managed to overcome his inaccuracy and lack of pocket movement.

I see Drew Bledsoe circa 2003 (Buffalo) as an optimal outcome: lots of sacks, lots of bombs, adequate total effectiveness. Remember, Mallett will turn 27 before the season. He's not some young fireballer with a ton of upside; he needs to immediately show his stuff.

Given the scenario, the team that signs Mallett will be saying more about its lack of confidence in its quarterback situation than anything else.

All DYAR and DVOA numbers cited are courtesy of Football Outsiders. Learn more about DVOA here. Contract information courtesy of Spotrac.  

Rivers McCown is the AFC South lead writer for Bleacher Report and the co-host of the Three-Cone Drill podcast. His work has also appeared on Football Outsiders and ESPN.com. Follow him on Twitter at @riversmccown.