Big Mistake for Denver Broncos to Let Julius Thomas Hit Open Market

The Denver Broncos are still waiting for quarterback Peyton Manning to announce that he’s coming back for an 18th season. In the interim, they have a few decisions to make of their own.

One such decision is whether to re-sign, franchise tag or let tight end Julius Thomas test the open market. All indications are they will allow Thomas to become an unrestricted free agent in March, which would be a big mistake.

When healthy, Thomas is one of the most dangerous tight ends in football and particularly effective in the red zone. To let a player of Thomas’ caliber hit the market in his prime when the Broncos are trying to win a Super Bowl is a mistake that could end up coming back to haunt general manager John Elway—especially if Thomas were to go to a division rival or title contender.

When Thomas was healthy in 2014, the Broncos had one of the best passing games in football just as they did in 2013. Through 10 weeks, Manning had thrown 29 touchdowns and completed 68 percent of his passes for 2,912 yards. Thomas had 12 touchdowns and 423 yards by that point.

Over the past two years, the only tight end with more touchdown catches is Jimmy Graham. The only wide receivers with more touchdown catches are Dez Bryant and Julius’ brother by another mother, Demaryius Thomas.

New head coach Gary Kubiak’s zone-blocking scheme has long been effective at gaining yards on the ground, but it hasn’t always been effective getting the ball into the end zone. That’s due in large part to the inherent nature of the scheme and the NFL as a whole. 

The Baltimore Ravens averaged 2.3 yards per carry in the red zone in 2014. That’s well below the league average of 2.7 yards per carry in the red zone.  The Ravens scored 16 touchdowns on the ground, but that’s also below the average of 21 per team last year.

Kubiak also loves to throw to tight ends in the red zone. That’s with an aging tight end like Owen Daniels and not a weapon like Thomas, who has caught a team-high 17 touchdowns from plays that started in the red zone over the last two seasons. Only Bryant and Graham have more red-zone touchdowns over the last two seasons.

Then there’s the impact Thomas had on his teammates.

Split	Demaryius	Sanders
Weeks 1-10 (Pre Injury)	11.2 TAR, 7.2 REC, 111.3 YDS, .67 TD	9.2 TAR, 6.8 REC, 97.4 YDS, .78 TD
Weeks 11-16 & Playoffs	11.9 TAR, 6.4 REC, 84.5 YDS, .75 TD	9.2 TAR, 6.0 REC, 74.2 YDS, .35 TD

Demaryius saw more targets and a greater share of the red-zone looks after Julius hurt his ankle in St. Louis, but his yardage output declined from 111.3 yards per game to 84.5 yards per game. Emmanuel Sanders had seven touchdowns when Julius was healthy and just two after he was hurt. Sanders’ yardage numbers declined from 97.4 yards per game to 74.2 per game.

It’s true that the Broncos shifted to a more run-heavy approach after Julius was injured, but that didn’t significantly affect the number of looks for Demaryius and Sanders. It’s reasonable to suggest Julius not pulling coverage away from his teammates had a significant impact on the passing offense as a whole.

Thomas isn’t the best run-blocker, but he's not as bad as people people seem to think. He can still improve his blocking, but why have him block when he is great in the slot. With slot receiver Wes Welker scheduled to be a free agent in March, the Broncos have to decide what they are going to do at that position.

Cody Latimer might be ready to take the role as the team’s third wide receiver with Sanders shifting inside, but he’s an unknown at this point. In 2013, Thomas had a league-best 2.31 yards per route run out of the slot for a tight end, according to Pro Football Focus, and added four touchdowns.

Thomas ran 31.2 percent of his routes out of the slot in 2013. That number dropped to just 15 percent in 2014 as the Broncos shifted those duties to Jacob Tamme even before Thomas was injured. The shift made no logical sense, but at the time, no one was going to argue with the results.

Even if running back C.J. Anderson can improve upon his 4.7 yards per carry in 2014 in Kubiak’s system, the Broncos offense won’t be the same without Thomas. Just as Manning and the offense weren’t the same from Week 11 onward—well before Manning hurt his quads.

No one is suggesting the Broncos should sign Julius at the expense of Demaryius, but it should be easy enough to get deals done with both. The Broncos have more than enough cap space to sign one and tag another; they just have to move quickly.

Elway said he hopes to get both back in January, but it’s obvious the team is preparing to let him test the market.

“I didn’t hear about that until now from you,” the tight end told The Associated Press when asked about Elway wanting him back. “But I think it’s good that’s something they want to do. Obviously, those conversations and negotiations will take place in the next coming weeks. Hopefully it all works out.”

Perhaps the lack of urgency lends credence to the whispers that the team grew displeased with Julius’ inability to fight back from an ankle injury in 2014. Perhaps the team simply doesn’t think he’s worth it, but it’s hard to figure out why that would be the case.

The Broncos only have one franchise tag to use. If they can’t get something done with Demaryius before he becomes a free agent, there’s no question he is getting the tag. Ultimately, the Broncos are still going to want to sign him to a long-term extension. It’s all about timing.

Whatever the Broncos are likely to save by tagging Demaryius will be lost if they lose Julius in free agency in the process. The best move the Broncos can make is to sign Demaryius to a long-term extension before the free-agency period starts so they can use the franchise tag on Julius.

According to ESPN.com’s Jeff Legwold, Julius’ representatives have made it clear he wants be one of the league’s highest-paid tight ends. That makes things hard for the Broncos, but the franchise tag enables him to prove he’s worth it in 2015. If the Broncos don’t get something done to keep Julius, they are making a big mistake.

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Unless otherwise noted, all statistics via Pro-Football-Reference.com