Handicapping Cincinnati Reds' Hotly Contested Spring Training Position Battles

The Cincinnati Reds' spring training won't feature many major position battles this year. With the exception of maybe one position in the starting lineup, the 2015 lineup and depth chart is mostly all but certain. 

Still, there are a couple of areas where competition has the chance to alter the make-up of the 2015 roster. I've identified one position in the starting lineup that will surely see a battle, but outside of that, the meaningful battles still yet to be fought will be for the back end of the rotation and possibly middle-relief in the bullpen.

The back of the rotation needs two arms. The most popular choices to address these vacancies seem to be Tony Cingrani and Anthony DeSclafani.  

Cingrani has made only 39 MLB appearances, so it's difficult to draw any definitive conclusions based on such a small body of work. But there's data on how he performed as both a starter and a reliever. 

As a starter, in 29 games, Cingrani is 9-11 with a 3.50 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP. He has 157 innings of work as a starter and in that time frame, he's recorded 167 strikeouts.

He did struggle mightily last year as a starter, though. In just 11 starts, Cingrani amassed a 2-8 record with an ERA of 4.55. His WHIP on the year was 1.53. This resulted in him being relegated to a bullpen role before finally shutting it down for the year in Triple-A because of shoulder problems.

In the bullpen, he only saw 3.2 innings of work—hardly enough to even analyze. He turned in a 2.45 ERA and went 0-1. For his career, in 10 appearances out of the bullpen, he's 0-1 with a 3.38 ERA and a promising 12.9 strikeouts per nine innings.

According to C. Trent Rosecrans of The Cincinnati Enquirer, Reds manager Bryan Price says Cingrani is an early favorite to occupy one of the rotation's two vacancies:

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It'd be nice to just see Tony Cingrani after the shoulder issues, make sure he's healthy, get more familiar with (Anthony) DeSclafani, although we know he's very capable and certainly one of the favorites to make our rotation.

Cingrani and DeSclafani are the favorites to fill the back two spots in the rotation, Price said, but he did note, "We don't want to be giving away jobs on our ballclub in January.

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Anthony DeSclafani has no worthy MLB experience to rely on. Last year in Miami, DeSclafani went 2-2 with a 6.27 ERA in 13 total games, including five starts. In those five starts, he went 1-2 with an enormous 7.40 ERA. His K/9 as a starter was just 6.3.

Because the evidence is so small and limited, we have to consider minor league numbers too. From Single-A to Triple-A, in three seasons, DeSclafani went 26-16 with an ERA of 3.23 and a WHIP of 1.23. As a prospect, he screams potential.

There are other names surrounding this battle, but Dylan Axelrod may be the only other serious contender. In an extremely limited sample size in Cincinnati, Axelrod did impress (2-1, 2.95). His WHIP after five games (four starts) was .982. 

While the Reds did just sign Paul Maholm, a cheap veteran who would make for a capable No. 5, I don't think he'll compete for anything until at least the All-Star break, barring injury of course. He performed terribly with the Dodgers (1-5 4.84) before undergoing season-ending surgery. 

Seeing Maholm would require a combination of him dazzling everyone in Triple-A and an injury or two to the likes of Cingrani, DeSclafani, Axelrod and David Holmberg. All four are probably in front of the veteran left-hander. 

Al Behrman/Associated Press

Let's assume Cingrani claims the fourth spot—and why not? He's already had success as a starting pitcher in the MLB. The last spot then comes down to Axelrod and DeSclafani.

I believe DeSclafani, simply because of who he was traded for and how well he performed in the minors (304 strikeouts to 79 walks), wins this position battle, but I imagine the No. 5 spot will be up for grabs the majority of the season.

As for the bullpen, it shouldn't be much of a battle. The bullpen was horrible in 2014, finishing with the second-most bullpen losses and third-worst ERA. Raisel Iglesias should compete for late, meaningful relief, so it's possible to imagine him stealing a lot of the time originally allocated for Sam LeCure. 

While the bullpen is in dire need of improvement, the pieces to address it are already in place, meaning there probably won't be much competition, unless someone like Pedro Villarreal can steal a spot from J.J. Hoover, but we're splitting hairs at the moment. 

The one true position battle I believe will take place this spring is the fight for shortstop. Zack Cozart has been one of the more polarizing Reds of late. Mainly because number worshipers like myself laud this player for his insane dWAR of 2.8, which is not only second-best among active shortstops, but it was the second highest dWAR in all of baseball, regardless of position. 

The downside is that he offers little from the plate. Last season, Cozart slashed .221/.268/.300, including an OPS+ of 61. He had four home runs and just 38 RBI. His career numbers provide little validation, as he's slashed .243/.281/.365 so far in three full seasons. And in the absence of any real power, he doesn't even get on base.

Cozart has a .281 OBP for his career and has never walked more than 31 times in a season. His at-bats were often unproductive and the Reds may now have an opportunity to replace him because of the Alfredo Simon trade.

Eugenio Suarez only played in 85 games last season for the Detroit Tigers. In those 277 plate appearances, Suarez slashed .242/.316/.336. If you're not impressed, and you're probably not, simply compare that line to Cozart's. Then consider the four home runs—same as Cozart, but with about half the at-bats.

Suarez would not offer the caliber of defense Cozart does. His .968 fielding is a significant deviation from Cozart's .984.

Considering all of this, I think Cozart still wins this battle. The rationale: The Reds offense, with a healthy Joey Votto and a healthy Jay Bruce, along with new offensive contributors in Todd Frazier and Devin Mesoraco, should be good enough that they won't need to rely on production from the No. 8 hitter. Because of that, I don't think they'll sacrifice that dWAR in the field for a slightly better hitter at the plate.

Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com unless noted otherwise