5 Mistakes the San Francisco 49ers Can't Afford to Make This Offseason
2015 will already be a strenuous season for the San Francisco 49ers.
Such has already been determined in the wake of former head coach Jim Harbaugh's departure at the conclusion of the regular season. Various other coaches and coordinators also followed in Harbaugh's wake, which further prompted questions about the top brass of the 49ers organization.
General manager Trent Baalke and CEO Jed York have tried to fill the voids. Jim Tomsula is the new head coach after being promoted from within. Eric Mangini is now the defensive coordinator, and reports from Matt Maiocco of CSNBayArea.com point to Steve Logan taking over the offense:
"Source: #49ers coach Jim Tomsula expected to add another NFL Europe colleague, Steve Logan, to offensive staff. http://t.co/dftmW4LJWW
— Matt Maiocco (@MaioccoCSN) January 27, 2015"
It is a wait-and-see time for the coaching staff. Speculation and criticism will continue up to, and including, the first few weeks of the 2015 NFL season.
But what might the 49ers do in the months beforehand?
San Francisco is in a precarious situation. A number of key free agents are going to hit the open market. The 49ers are also pressed up against the salary cap. Other players might be forced to step into roles in which they are not quite prepared.
And then there is the draft. With nine picks with which to select, the 49ers will look to supplement potential free-agent losses and upgrade various positions as needed.
With plenty of questions that need answers, what can San Francisco not afford to do prior to training camp?
Overpay for a Free Agent
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According to Jason Hurley of Niners Nation, San Francisco is projected to be $2,195,902 under the 2015 salary cap.
Hurley factors in a likely increase of the cap next year and the approximately $6 million-plus in unused cap space from this season, which can be rolled over into 2015.
Those numbers still don't leave the 49ers with a lot of wiggle room this offseason. And they certainly can't afford to land some of the higher-priced free agents on the market.
So we can rule out offensive studs like Denver Broncos tight end Julius Thomas and wide receiver Demaryius Thomas. The same theory would apply to defensive standouts like cornerback Darrelle Revis. Moves involving these three, or any other player in similar caliber, simply won't happen.
But the 49ers' cap situation will force some precarious situations regarding some of their own free agents.
Wide receiver Michael Crabtree is set to be a free agent, as is left guard Mike Iupati. Veteran running back Frank Gore is also a commodity, and he's one most 49ers fans would unquestionably want back in 2015.
Yet San Francisco can't afford to overbid on any player, either outside the organization or within, when it comes to formulating the 2015 team.
Take the 31-year-old Gore for example. Gore counted for $6.45 million against the cap in 2014. While he'll likely take a reduced contract in what could be his final year playing at the NFL level, one can see how the remaining 49ers cap space doesn't allocate much room in which to get into a bidding war.
The same could be said about any free agent whom San Francisco is pursuing.
But it only serves to highlight an even larger problem looming this offseason.
Get into Further Cap Trouble
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Even if the 49ers avoid a major bidding war this offseason, general manager Trent Baalke and chief contract negotiator Paraag Marathe aren't out of the woods just yet.
The NFL salary cap in 2015 is expected to be between $138.6 million and $141.8 million, per ESPN's Adam Schefter.
While the 49ers are projected to be roughly $2 million under the cap next season, these numbers do not account for free-agent signings nor rookie contracts to be handed out following the 2015 NFL draft.
According to Over the Cap, San Francisco's top 51 contracts through 2015 will amount to $146,863,694. Even with the rollover from 2014, it's not hard to see how precarious this situation is.
This mandates some offseason decision-making that the 49ers front office cannot afford to neglect.
One way to solve this problem is to renegotiate existing contracts. According to Jason Hurley of Niners Nation, San Francisco can save $12.68 million if the team renegotiates contracts of quarterback Colin Kaepernick and linebacker Patrick Willis.
Another feasible option is parting ways with expensive veterans whose roles are no longer as certain in 2015 and beyond.
Linebacker Ahmad Brooks is the likeliest of cap casualties. The 30-year-old veteran was tied for the team lead in sacks this season (six), but he saw a decrease in playing time thanks to the emergence of rookie linebacker Aaron Lynch—who was also tied for the same sack lead.
But another casualty could be tight end Vernon Davis. Davis had, statistically, the worst season of his pro career since his 2006 rookie efforts. Yet the problem with releasing Davis is that the 49ers don't exactly have inspiring in-house replacements. The free-agent market and 2015 draft class is thin at this position as well.
Still, the 49ers have some financial thinking to do here. Per Dylan DeSimone of Comcast SportsNet:
"#49ers save $10,918,514 if they part with Ahmad Brooks, Ray McDonald and Vernon Davis in the new league year before June 1.
— Dylan DeSimone (@DeSimone_80) December 17, 2014"
Not acting on this situation would have dire consequences.
Employ an Offensive Scheme That Doesn't Benefit Colin Kaepernick
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The 2014 regression of quarterback Colin Kaepernick can be blamed on a number of factors.
His offensive line underperformed. The play-calling was questionable at best. A number of impact players were not playing at their peak.
But, perhaps, this might just be the type of quarterback Kaepernick is.
According to Ray Ratto and Tom Tolbert of the 49ers' flagship station KNBR 680, the 49ers attempted to improve all of Kaepernick's shortcomings this season. By trying to make him better at every aspect of the game, the coaching staff essentially made him good at only a handful.
Kaepernick is spending a portion of his offseason working with quarterbacking great Kurt Warner. This will help to an extent, but an equal responsibility resides within the developing coaching staff in San Francisco.
The uncertainty of coaches has not had an effect on Kaepernick's work, per Cam Inman of the San Jose Mercury News.
But will head coach Jim Tomsula and the future offensive coordinator try to emphasize Kaepernick's strengths, or will they try to mold him into an effective pocket passer?
The answer is likely somewhere in between.
Running the ball appears to be a significant portion of the 49ers' offensive approach under Tomsula, according to Matt Barrows of The Sacramento Bee.
“I think he can run, I think he can throw. I think he can change the pace of the game, change the speed of the game,” Tomsula said. “…More so than the traditional quarterback, he does it with the lower body. And (we’ll) look at that, corral it and let’s accentuate those things as we continue to strengthen other areas.”
Kaepernick also needs a running game, perhaps more than many other quarterbacks. It drives play action and read-option sets—areas in which the San Francisco signal-caller once thrived.
Simply stated, the 49ers can't afford to again implement a style of offense like they did in 2014.
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Ignore the Defense
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Despite having the league's 25th-ranked offense, the 49ers ended up with an 8-8 record—a disappointment to be sure, but a record that would have been much worse had it not been for the defense.
San Francisco's defense ranked No. 5 in the NFL with just 5,143 yards allowed. The story was, all too frequently, the offense stumbling while the defense did its best to hold the line.
But even this effective unit could not escape turbulent times during the season and thereafter.
There was the dismissal of defensive end Ray McDonald. And then there were hints that fellow end Justin Smith could retire this offseason. Cornerbacks Chris Culliver and Perrish Cox are pending free agents and could easily depart the team.
And then San Francisco lost its vaunted defensive coordinator Vic Fangio, whose defenses ranked within the top five during his tenure with the 49ers.
McDonald, and possibly Smith, could be replaced by defensive end Tank Carradine and one of San Francisco's other D-linemen—Quinton Dial, Glenn Dorsey and Ian Williams. It's also feasible the 49ers find a long-term solution via the draft.
CSNBayArea.com's Matt Maiocco addressed Carradine's potential new role:
"With Justin Smith’s future uncertain and Ray McDonald long gone, the #49ers like to see Tank Carradine getting some heat on the QB.
— Matt Maiocco (@MaioccoCSN) December 28, 2014"
Cornerback depth could be addressed by some younger backs like Jimmie Ward and Dontae Johnson, both of whom are signed beyond 2015. And the 49ers have tabbed Eric Mangini as their defensive coordinator.
But leaving this unit as is doesn't solve all the issues.
Plenty of positives remain on defense, but the 49ers have to make some choices as well. Addressing the eventual departure of Smith is one thing. Perhaps this will be solved by a switch from a 3-4 defense to a 4-3—something Bleacher Report's Matt Miller (h/t David Fucillo of Niners Nation) suggested could happen in 2015.
This will help, but replicating the success enjoyed under Fangio will be a tough task regardless of the personnel and scheme.
Mangini and head coach Jim Tomsula certainly have plenty of work to do in order to keep this unit as effective as it has been in recent seasons.
Replicate the 2012 NFL Draft
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San Francisco's 2012 NFL draft class reads as such:
- WR A.J. Jenkins
- RB LaMichael James
- OL Joe Looney
- LB Darius Fleming
- FS Trent Robinson
- OL Jason Slowey
- DE Cam Johnson
Joe Looney is the only remaining cast member from that draft, and he has been relegated to a backup lineman. But general manager Trent Baalke did turn Cam Johnson into another draft pick, which will be used this year.
2012 is widely regarded as the worst draft in Baalke's tenure in San Francisco. Cam Inman of the San Jose Mercury News wrote:
"General manager Trent Baalke has a long list of hits since he began overseeing player acquisitions in 2010. He was the 2011 NFL executive year and his rosters over the previous three seasons produced 23 All-Pro selections and 30 Pro Bowl acknowledgments.
But the 2012 draft that yielded a bounty of key players for the rival Seattle Seahawks—quarterback Russell Wilson (third round), linebacker Bobby Wagner (second) and defensive end Bruce Irvin (first)—could haunt the 49ers for years.
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Baalke has a knack for stockpiling picks. He will have nine this year. A season ago, the 49ers didn't have too many pressing needs, but they had a plethora of picks. San Francisco has needs this season.
A playmaking wide receiver is one strong desire. The 49ers lack offensive speed and, while not as deep as a year ago, this year's draft class at the position offers some strong talent in the early rounds.
San Francisco could use some help along the defensive line—an issue that was discussed on the previous slide. It also needs help at cornerback and possibly along the offensive line.
Baalke and the 49ers' scouting department cannot afford another gaffe like the one suffered in 2012. Given the cap situation, likely free-agent departures and the nature of competition within the NFC West, San Francisco could easily fall on hard times if it fails to strike gold in the 2015 NFL draft.
All statistics, records and accolades courtesy of Pro-Football-Reference.com unless otherwise indicated. Contractual information courtesy of Spotrac.com unless notified otherwise.
Peter Panacy is a featured columnist for Bleacher Report, covering the San Francisco 49ers. Be sure to check out his entire archive on 49ers news, insight and analysis.
Follow him @PeterPanacy on Twitter.
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