Super Bowl XLIX: Bleacher Report's Expert Predictions for NFL Title Game

You may not have heard, but there's something of a big football game happening this weekend in Arizona.

Hey, it's possible there are people who don't know that the New England Patriots and Seattle Seahawks are set to square off in Super Bowl XLIX.

The Sentinelese, for instance.

For much of the world, though (and most certainly in the United States), it's Super Bowl week, and that means nonstop coverage of everything from defensive schemes to air pressure to what kind of stuffed animals Bill Belichick likes.

No, not "headless." Or "underinflated." He likes monkey finger puppets.

Stop looking at me like that!

Here at Bleacher Report, we've already offered our picks for the Super Bowl itself, but now it's time to go a bit deeper, with some in-game predictions for Super Bowl XLIX.

None of which have anything to do with monkeys. Or finger puppets.

Mismatch of the Game

John Froschauer/Associated Press

Winner: Seattle Seahawks secondary vs. New England Patriots wide receivers (6 votes)

This just in. The "Legion of Boom" is pretty good.

Actually, that's news in the way a story exposing politicians as liars would be news. The Seahawks led the NFL in pass defense in 2014, allowing only 185.6 yards per game.

Cornerback Richard Sherman may be the most famous of the group, but the vocal cover man wrote for Sports Illustrated that it's very much a group effort:

"

I can’t perform at this level without Kam Chancellor, the lion of the Legion, the guy who once picked off Peyton Manning by ducking to make it appear as though he couldn’t leap for the ball. He’s also the guy we go to with our problems, who doles out advice about a lot of issues that arise outside of football.

I can’t perform at this level without Earl Thomas—The Example—who can show you how to do the right thing better than he can explain it. When everybody else is joking, he’s locked in, a reminder of what we’re here for.

I can’t perform at this level without Byron Maxwell, our chill guy, oblivious to the pressure. I remember him joking around with Carroll in our rookie camp, saying that if he was allowed to play nickel he’d choke out the slot receiver. Carroll relented and Maxwell delivered, only to get injured in camp. Now he’s the corner on the other side, and his consistently high level of play makes QBs’ decisions very difficult.

I can’t perform at this level without Jeremy Lane, the scrappy guy from Tyler, Texas. Competition brings out the dog in him; just look at what he’s done to the Packers’ Randall Cobb.

"

In the Super Bowl, Sherman and the Seahawks will face off with a New England pass-catching corps that, while solid, isn't exactly the Green Bay Packers or Denver Broncos.

Now, as NFC East Lead Writer Brad Gagnon pointed out, there is an exception:

"

I don't even think this is a mismatch, but it's the closest thing we have in a game that features two teams that match up extremely well with each other. Gronk is the hottest and most dominant tight end in the game. And using DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average), Football Outsiders actually ranked Seattle below the league average when covering tight ends.

"

However, where wideouts Julian Edelman and Brandon LaFell are concerned, our voters see some paddling upstream in the desert Sunday night.

Wow. That metaphor was definitely underinflated.

Others receiving votes: Marshawn Lynch vs. Patriots front seven (2 votes), Patriots cornerbacks vs. Seahawks wide receivers (2 votes), Rob Gronkowski vs. Seahawks pass defense (2 votes), Cliff Avril vs. Nate Solder (1 vote), Michael Bennett vs. Patriots O-line (1 vote)

Top QB Performance

DAVE MARTIN/Associated Press

Winner: Tie—Tom Brady, New England Patriots (7 votes), Russell Wilson, Seattle Seahawks (7 votes)

New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady is setting a Super Bowl record just by showing up at the stadium on Sunday.

Super Bowl XLIX marks Brady's sixth start in football's biggest game. Of course, his last couple of trips to the Super Bowl have ended in disappointment, including his last time in Arizona in 2008.

Still, Brady told reporters (per Kevin Patra of NFL.com) that he doesn't worry about what a fourth Super Bowl win would do for his legacy among all-time greats like Joe Montana and Terry Bradshaw:

"

It's hard to think about those things. I've been fortunate to be on some great teams. Those guys are unbelievable players. They were so great for this league. There were great teams. I was the biggest 49ers fan growing up. To watch Joe and Steve Young, who were my two idols, who were just great for the game and great for the sport.

"

Brady also allowed that at this point in his career, he isn't about to take anything for granted.

"One thing I learned, I had a tough injury about six years ago, and even when we lose now, I walk off the field going 'well at least I get a chance to go out there and do it again,'" he said.

Much has been made of Brady and Russell Wilson's career similarities over their first three seasons as starters, but Pete Prisco of CBS Sports doesn't think it's close:

"

The numbers spinsters, the guys who try and make you think something based on numbers -- wait, they call that analytics, right? -- would lead you to believe that these two are both great quarterbacks.

The reality is that one is great, and one is simply good.

Brady, who has three rings as quarterback of the New England Patriots and is going for No. 4, is great.

Wilson, like I've been saying for two years, even after he won his first ring last season for the Seattle Seahawks, is good. But he's not close to being one of the league's best quarterbacks, no matter how many times some in the media want to stand up and scream it.

"

Well, there's about to be some yelling, because Wilson garnered the same number of votes Brady did here.

Sure, he doesn't have Brady's resume. Yes, Wilson struggled against the Packers (to the tune of four interceptions) before turning it on late.

But, as NFL National Lead Writer Matt Bowen recently pointed out, Wilson does bring one thing to the field that the "Golden Boy" certainly does not:

"

Russell Wilson's ability to run the football is a key to the Seattle Seahawks' offensive game plan because of the opportunities the quarterback can create in multiple schemes and personnel groupings.

A true X-factor at the position, Wilson's skill set allows offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell to think outside the box, while generating stress for opposing defenses on the read-option and misdirection concepts.

"

It's youth vs. experience. The "classic" pocket quarterback vs. the scrambler.

And a deadlock among our voters.

Top RB Performance

John Froschauer/Associated Press

Winner: Marshawn Lynch (13 votes)

The vote at quarterback may have been close, but running back is, well, a runaway.

Sort of like Marshawn Lynch in the open field.

Of course, most of the news regarding Lynch had nothing to do with his prowess between the tackles. There was talk about junk and questions as to whether he would talk himself up at Tuesday's media day.

As Gregg Rosenthal of NFL.com reported, Lynch was indeed there, even if he made it clear he didn't want to be.

"I'm just here so I won't get fined," Lynch said. Thirty times.

Of course, there's a different story at play, and AFC North Lead Writer Andrea Hangst expects Lynch to do plenty of talking on the field at University of Phoenix Stadium:

"

Both Marshawn Lynch and LeGarrette Blount have done much to advance their respective teams all the way to the Super Bowl, while both the Patriots and Seahawks have relatively stingy rushing defenses. However, just Lynch has been able to gain significant yards all season long against a variety of defenses. He's just more consistently dominant. There's a reason why the Seahawks offense is a run-first group and that starts—and ends—with Lynch. Add in the big stage of the Super Bowl and it's hard to imagine Lynch not finishing this game leading both teams in rushing yardage. At this point, Beastquakes feel like an inevitability, not a once-a-year occurrence.

"

And the bigger the game Lynch has, the better the chances the Seahawks capture their second consecutive championship.

Others receiving votes: LeGarrette Blount, New England Patriots (1 vote)

Top WR Performance

Jim Rogash/Getty Images

Winner: Julian Edelman, New England Patriots (10 votes)

Super Bowl XLIX certainly isn't lacking for star power, but if there's one position on the field (Besides the punters—no one knows or cares who they are. Punters live a harsh and solitary life.) that's a bit short on big names, it's at wide receiver.

This isn't to say there's no talent at the position. Brandon LaFell had by far the best season of his career in his first year in New England. Jermaine Kearse's last catch was the biggest of his life.

Still, for AFC East Lead Writer Erik Frenz, the clear choice for the Super Bowl's top wideout is the one coming off the most productive season:

"

With Richard Sherman locking down the right side of the field, Tom Brady will probably be throwing away from him. The more favorable matchups will probably be on the right, and more specifically, in the slot. Julian Edelman has been Brady's favorite receiver all season, and that's probably not going to change on the biggest stage of the year.

"

It may seem a little counterintuitive to select Edelman as the Super Bowl's top wide receiver after listing Seattle's secondary as having a clear edge in the game, and Edelman admitted to reporters (via the team's website) that he has his work cut out for him against the Legion of Boom:

"

They're a little different because they're all big. They're all big, strong, ferocious players. They play in their scheme. They're well coached. They play hard. We certainly have some guys that are big, but this a completely different group and like you said, I've never played against them. [We've] got to take these next few days [to] prepare [and] get ready for them and try to bring out the A game.

"

However, with the Seahawks sure to pay plenty of attention to tight end Rob Gronkowski, Edelman should see plenty of both targets and single coverage.

And if the Patriots are going to win this game, they need to take advantage of that.

Others receiving votes: Jermaine Kearse, Seattle Seahawks (2 votes), Ricardo Lockette, Seattle Seahawks (1 vote), Brandon LaFell, New England Patriots (1 vote)

Top TE Performance

Associated Press

Winner: Rob Gronkowski, New England Patriots (all the votes)

Like it was going to be Luke Willson. (Sorry Luke.)

Of course, there are those who don't think New England Patriots tight end Rob Gronkowski is such hot stuff. At least that's what Seattle cornerback Jeremy Lane told reporters, according to Bob Condotta of The Seattle Times:

"

I actually don’t think he’s that good. He’s OK. But he does have a big body, and from what I’ve seen on tape, he don’t like your hands being put on him. So if we put our hands on him and shake him up a little bit, he won’t catch that many balls as he should.

"

Seahawks strong safety Kam Chancellor, who will probably see quite a bit of Gronkowski in coverage on Sunday, also sounded confident about his chances, according to Jared Dubin of CBS Sports.

“He definitely is a big, physical guy, but it's just big-on-big. Just play big-on-big,” Chancellor said.

Gronkowski, for his part, told reporters at media day (per Josh Alper of Pro Football Talk) that he's just glad to be healthy for this Super Bowl after an ankle injury slowed him the last time the Pats made the Super Bowl:

"

It’s definitely a tough experience, man. Definitely don’t take the game for granted anymore. It’s an honor to be out there on the field with my teammates and all. Throughout the whole year, especially this time of the year, going to the Super Bowl, being out on the practice field, helping my team do its job and just going out and practicing hard. I’m super excited for this game Sunday.

"

NFC West Lead Writer Sean Tomlinson doesn't see anything slowing Gronkowski down in the Super Bowl:

"

The Seahawks may have limited the overall yardage allowed to tight ends throughout the regular season, giving up an average of 41.5 receiving yards per game to the position. But anything they did cough up to tight ends often came in large chunks, including eight receptions for 20-plus yards. Worse, of the 17 passing touchdowns Seattle allowed, 11 went to tight ends.

"

The panel agrees, and the battle between Chancellor and Gronkowski could be a difference-maker in Glendale. 

Top Defensive Performance

Charles Krupa/Associated Press

Winner: Darrelle Revis, CB, New England Patriots (4 votes)

At first glance, despite the fact that a Patriots player "won" this vote, it appears this bodes well for the Seahawks' chances in Super Bowl XLIX.

Of the eight players who received at least one vote for the Top Defensive Performer of the Super Bowl, six were Seahawks. For AFC West Lead Writer Chris Hansen, it was Seattle free safety Earl Thomas:

"

The Seattle Seahawks have several defensive players that could be in the running for this award. The Patriots also have a few. The one player who has a better chance than most is Earl Thomas. He's not only one of the best defensive players on the field, he's constantly making plays. He blasted Packers running back Eddie Lacy with a sore shoulder in the NFC Championship Game, for example.

The Seahawks don't burden him with one-on-one coverage often, so he's free to read and react to each play. That means it's very hard to take him out of any play. With Richard Sherman, you can just ignore him entirely, as many teams have. Pass-rushers can be taken out of the game with an effective ground game. Offenses can adjust for just about every type of defender, but not a player like Thomas.

Thomas is always a factor.

He could pop a ball loose making a tackle on a running back or receiver, snag a ball tipped by a linebacker or cornerback or cut in front of a receiver or tight end to make his own interception. He's so good that his mere presence can also change the way a quarterback thinks.

Tom Brady will have to think twice about attacking the middle with Rob Gronkowski, which is saying a lot. Around 70 percent of Gronkowski's targets and 75 percent of his receptions have come between the hash marks and beyond the line of scrimmage, according to Pro Football Focus. The Seahawks can likely cover Gronkowski with a single defender because Thomas is almost always around the ball.

"

However, only one defender garnered four votes, and it's a player who is in both his first Super Bowl and his first season with the Patriots.

It's been a winding road over the past few seasons for Patriots cornerback Darrelle Revis, but former Pats great Lawyer Milloy told Michael Whitmer of The Boston Globe that the new face in New England has played a big part in an old one being in the Super Bowl:

"

It’s about time they went out and paid to have one good cornerback. When you have a stud cornerback like Revis, it just makes everything on defense a lot easier to call because you’ve got one player on the team, most of the time their best receiving threat, taken out of the game. That’s the same thing we had with Ty Law.

"

A big game in a Super Bowl win would be the icing on top of a career that will likely see Revis enshrined in the Pro Football Hall of Fame.

Others receiving votes: Kam Chancellor, SS, Seattle Seahawks (3 votes), Bobby Wagner, MLB, Seattle Seahawks (2 votes), Earl Thomas, FS, Seattle Seahawks (1 vote), K.J. Wright, OLB, Seattle Seahawks (1 vote), Michael Bennett, DE, Seattle Seahawks (1 vote), Richard Sherman, CB, Seattle Seahawks (1 vote), Rob Ninkovich, DE, New England Patriots (1 vote)

Super Sleeper

John Froschauer/Associated Press

Winner: Luke Willson, TE, Seattle Seahawks (6 votes)

The history of the Super Bowl is littered with no-name players who blew up on football's biggest stage.

Just last year, in fact.

It wasn't Russell Wilson who was the MVP of Super Bowl XLVIII. Or Marshawn Lynch. Or Richard Sherman. Or Earl Thomas.

No, that honor went to linebacker Malcolm Smith, who isn't exactly a household name.

In the Patriots' last Super Bowl appearance in Arizona, wide receiver David Tyree stole the show. Granted, he wasn't named the game's MVP, but his "helmet catch" remains the signature image of Super Bowl XLII.

When it comes to this year's big game, AFC West Lead Writer Chris Hansen thinks that New England tailback Shane Vereen has the best chance to become a surprise superstar:

"

Everyone knows how tough the Seattle Seahawks are on defense. Unless they have breakdowns like they did earlier this season in the run game and let LeGarrette Blount run over them, the Patriots are going to have a tough time moving the ball. Their best chance is to probably throw the ball to Rob Gronkowski, but the Seahawks are going to do their best to force Tom Brady to go elsewhere with the ball.

If there is one place where the Seahawks might be vulnerable, it's to running backs in the passing game. Enter Shane Vereen, who has played more snaps than any other running back for the Patriots this season, yet seems to get little attention. Vereen was fifth in the league among running backs in receiving yardage this season, so while people don't talk much about him, he's carved out a niche. It just happens to be a niche that might be one of the only ways the Patriots can successfully attack Seattle's defense.

"

However, the player who garnered the most votes here is one I took a swipe at just a few slides ago.

Seattle tight end Luke Willson may not be Rob Gronkowski, but as head coach Pete Carroll told Clare Farnsworth of the team's website, the second-year pro has emerged as a big part of the Seattle passing game late in the season:

"

Luke has gotten downfield and caused some problems for opponents – big plays, because he’s a big, fast kid. He can really get downfield and stretch it out, and Russell has a great sense for him now. It just looks like the chemistry has really connected in the last month or six weeks or so.

So it’s a big deal. It’s a big deal to have another weapon that can strike you like that. Hopefully we’ll be able to find him a couple times in this game.

"

Willson played a part in the Seahawks' comeback over the Packers in the NFC Championship Game, reeling in Russell Wilson's "Hail Mary" two-point attempt in the fourth quarter.

Our panel predicts that Willson will play a key role in Super Bowl XLIX as well.

Others receiving votes: Jamie Collins, ILB, New England Patriots (3 votes), Danny Amendola, WR, New England Patriots (2 votes), Kyle Arrington, CB, New England Patriots (1 vote), Shane Vereen, RB, New England Patriots (1 vote), Bruce Irvin, OLB, Seattle Seahawks (1 vote)

Super Flop

Elise Amendola/Associated Press

"Winner": LeGarrette Blount, RB, New England Patriots (6 votes)

This is the category nightmares are made of.

If there's one thing that will keep players awake in hotels in the Valley of the Sun this week, it's the idea of falling flat in the biggest game of their career.

Ask Jim Kelly after Super Bowl XXVI. Or Kerry Collins after Super Bowl XXXV.

The opposing quarterbacks in Super Bowl XLIX got more than a few votes from our panel, including one from NFC East Lead Writer Brad Gagnon:

"

I think the New England secondary is bound to make a statement against Russell Wilson, who got away with a terrible performance against Green Bay. They're getting no love next to the Legion of Boom, but I can see them capitalizing frequently on Wilson's mistakes. It's easy to forget the kid is still young and it's not as though he's well protected.

"

However, the player our panel feels is most likely to flop in Glendale is one of the heroes of the Pats' blowout win in the AFC Championship Game.

Of course, LeGarrette Blount's big game came against the Indianapolis Colts, who have been vulnerable to the power run game. This time out, it's the Seahawks and their league-best defense.

Blount told reporters at media day (per ESPN's Mike Reiss) that he's confident he can get it done on the ground against the defending champs:

"I don't care about them being the top defense, that doesn't bother me. They were good enough to get here, just like we were good enough to get here. They're not immortal. They can be beaten."

Our voters beg to differ.

Others receiving votes: Tom Brady, QB, New England Patriots (3 votes), Russell Wilson, QB, Seattle Seahawks (2 votes), Doug Baldwin, WR, Seattle Seahawks (1 vote), Jermaine Kearse, WR, Seattle Seahawks (1 vote), Julian Edelman, WR, New England Patriots (1 vote)

Super Bowl MVP

Elaine Thompson/Associated Press

Winner: Russell Wilson, QB, Seattle Seahawks (7 votes)

OK, I'll admit. It's a little odd that Russell Wilson won the vote to garner MVP honors in Super Bowl XLIX, especially given the margin by which he did it.

Not that it would be an oddity in and of itself, mind you. Certainly not in the opinion of NFL National Lead Writer Ty Schalter:

"

This is one of those predestined things. Peyton Manning won the Super Bowl XLI MVP because his Indianapolis Colts won; unless he flat-out stunk, the award was always going to be his. Seahawks linebacker Malcolm Smith (deservedly) won the XLVIII MVP for his tremendous performance, but the voters won’t likely snub Wilson twice—after all, as Dan Marino knows, no matter how young and talented you are, you only get so many bites at the Super Bowl apple.

Even if this award weren’t Wilson’s to lose, I think he’ll have a huge bounce back from what was arguably the worst game of his career in the NFC Conference Championship Game. Of the two quarterbacks against the two secondaries, he’s the one better equipped to make it happen all by himself.

"

No, it's a bit odd because earlier in this same article, Wilson and Brady tied in the vote for top quarterback at the Super Bowl.

However, that's what makes Super Bowl XLIX so great.

It's been years since we had a Super Bowl matchup this tight. Per Odds Shark, the point spread for the Super Bowl is about as narrow as it gets. 

A single point is also the margin of victory I predicted for the Patriots, which should show you how little confidence I have in the pick. 

It wouldn't surprise me one bit if the Seahawks win, or if Wilson's named MVP. He's a phenomenal young player, and after reading items like his recent essay at The Players' Tribune, he's a hard young man not to like:

"

Faith is a big part of my life, and I talk to my pastor Judah Smith almost every day. One thing that he has really instilled in my heart this season is the idea of “surrender and surround.” Surrender yourself to a higher cause, and surround yourself with special people.

This team is filled with late-round draft picks and unheralded free agents and underdogs who have turned into incredible football players. But when people ask me what makes this team special, it’s hard for me to explain in the usual terms. The defense is unbelievable, of course. Marshawn is a one-in-a-generation running back. But it’s about more than just football. I’ve had so many conversations with Robert Turbin this year that have gone late into the night. Robert is my running back. But he’s also the guy who I talk to about life. About who we want to be 15 years from now, not just as football players but as husbands and fathers.

That’s just as important to my legacy as whatever happens this Sunday.

There’s a Bible verse that is very close to my heart. John 3:30. “He must increase, I must decrease.” That defines this year for me. In my life personally, I’ve noticed that people tend to put you on a pedestal when things are going well. It’s easy to hit the reset button when things are going bad. But will you be able to hit the reset button when things are going well? That’s a challenge that’s bigger than football.

When I saw Jermaine come down with the ball in the end zone in overtime, it was one of the most emotional moments of my career. But as incredible as that moment was, I tried to close my eyes and hit the reset button. On to the next one. There’s only ONE MISSION.

"

Much like the NFC title game, Super Bowl XLIX has the makings of a game that could be decided by one drive, or even one play.

And if Wilson can make that play, win a second Super Bowl and garner an MVP award?

I'm pretty sure that qualifies as mission accomplished.

Others receiving votes: Marshawn Lynch, RB, Seattle Seahawks (3 votes), Tom Brady, QB, New England Patriots (2 votes), Bobby Wagner, MLB, Seattle Seahawks (1 vote), Rob Ninkovich, DE, New England Patriots (1 vote)