Full Roster Predictions for 2015 USA vs. International Rising Stars Challenge

The NBA has opted for yet another new format for the Rising Stars Challenge, this time adding a twist that could resonate with fans across the globe.

The annual showcase of the league's youngsters has taken on several different forms since its inception. While the basic parameters are still the same—first- and second-year players only—the NBA has found a way to deploy its freshest faces: USA vs. The World.

This event first featured rookies from separate conferences going head-to-head. But over the years, it changed to rookies against sophomores, then rosters comprised of both selected by former players and current TV personalities (first Shaquille O'Neal and Charles Barkley, then Chris Webber and Grant Hill).

This year, the playing field has shifted again. The league sent out an official release Thursday detailing the format change:

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The BBVA Compass Rising Stars Challenge at NBA All-Star 2015 in New York City will feature a new format that pits first- and second-year NBA players from the United States against first- and second-year NBA players from around the world, the NBA announced Wednesday.

... The league's assistant coaches will select 10 U.S. players and 10 international players for the game, with one ballot for each of the NBA's 30 teams. Both 10-man rosters will include four guards, four frontcourt players and two players regardless of position. Each team will also feature a minimum of three first-year players and three second-year players among its 10 spots.

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If that sounds like it will create a lopsided playing field, it very well might. However, the balance of power may not tilt the way some fans would expect.

Each of the NBA's last two No. 1 selections came from north of the border: Canadiens Anthony Bennett and Andrew Wiggins. In total, there have been nine international players taken with lottery picks in the past two drafts.

David Sherman/Getty Images

There is still a wealth of talent on the American side, but its counterparts from the international ranks might have a slight advantage in that department.

"[The international team] might actually be the favorites," wrote NBC Sports' Kurt Helin.

That being said, one glance at the potential rosters shows this should be a pretty even fight.

Team USA

Guard: Michael Carter Williams, Philadelphia 76ers

Philadelphia's 6'6" floor general has picked up where he left off after his 2013-14 Rookie of the Year campaign. While his shooting struggles haven't disappeared (.382/.238/.634 slash line), the guy still stuffs a sheet like few others. Carter-Williams is one of only two players averaging at least 15 points, seven assists, six rebounds and one steal, along with Oklahoma City Thunder guard Russell Westbrook.

Guard: Victor Oladipo, Orlando Magic

Oladipo has flourished after receiving more time at his natural shooting guard position. The explosive sophomore has set career shooting marks across the board, to go along with his 16.5 points, 3.9 assists, 3.8 rebounds and 1.6 steals. His 16.2 player efficiency rating ranks second among rookie and sophomore perimeter players.

As an added bonus, he's reportedly already going to be around for All-Star weekend. Oladipo has already committed to participating in the Slam Dunk Contest, per Yahoo Sports' Adrian Wojnarowski, where his highlight reel suggests he should not disappoint.

Guard: Trey Burke, Utah Jazz

The former Michigan standout's stats hide the nightly wars he wages with himself. Burke is a natural, gifted scorer, but he's also responsible for setting the table for his teammates and getting them going. While he's produced in both roles (12.5 points, 5.0 assists), he's still figuring out how to shoulder them simultaneously.

"He's a player who's capable of scoring, so when you can do that, you have to find that balance," Jazz coach Quin Snyder said recently, per Tony Jones of The Salt Lake Tribune. "It's a process, but he made a couple of passes that he should feel good about."

But with minimal defense played in this event, Burke should find more than enough scoring and distributing opportunities to handle both jobs.

Guard: Elfrid Payton, Orlando Magic

Payton is a throwback point guard, the kind who puts a priority on passing. And his numbers reflect that. His 5.6 assists per game rank second to only Carter-Williams' 7.1 among rookies and sophomores. With so many mouths to feed in this type of setting, Payton will be the one making sure his teammates can feast.

Frontcourt: Shabazz Muhammad, Minnesota Timberwolves

Whatever Muhammad did over the offseason, it obviously worked. He looks like a completely different player than he did a year ago, both in terms of physique and production.

"All the work I put in this summer has really paid off for me," Muhammad told Sports Illustrated's Jeremy Woo. "I'm just starting to get back the confidence level I had in high school, and that's the biggest thing."

In only 23.3 minutes per game, Muhammad has tallied 13.7 points, 4.0 rebounds and 1.2 assists. He has a deep enough bag of offensive tricks to steal the night's spotlight away from some of the more highly touted prospects.

Frontcourt: Nerlens Noel, Philadelphia 76ers

Noel hasn't found his offensive game yet, but he has already looked like a transcendent talent on the other end of the floor. He's averaging 1.6 blocks and 1.6 steals per game, numbers cleared only by MVP candidate Anthony Davis.

The 76ers have allowed 3.4 points per 100 possessions fewer with Noel on the floor. Noel ranks fifth overall with a 3.3 defensive box plus-minus. This game might not be about defense, but he's a highlight waiting to happen as either a shot-blocker or above-the-rim finisher.

Frontcourt: Mason Plumlee, Brooklyn Nets

Fresh off a successful run with Team USA at the FIBA Basketball World Cup, Plumlee has continued raising his ceiling since getting back to Brooklyn. He's putting up 10.3 points, 6.8 rebounds and 1.0 blocks in only 22.5 minutes per game, numbers that continue to hint at the bright future ahead of the 24-year-old.

He was also one of the players named by Wojnarowski as a Slam Dunk Contest participant.

Frontcourt: Cody Zeller, Charlotte Hornets

Zeller has an incredibly deep skill set for a player of his size (7'0", 240 lbs), and it's beginning to show up in the box score with more regularity. He does a little bit of everything for Charlotte, using his 23.8 minutes a night to post 7.6 points, 5.4 rebounds, 1.5 assists and 0.7 steals. He isn't the sexiest pick for this type of game, but he's capable of quietly dominating the stat sheet.

Utility: Zach LaVine, Minnesota Timberwolves

The 19-year-old LaVine left UCLA with a lot of raw talent, a potential star-in-the-making with the right amount of seasoning. But his learning curve was accelerated by the prolonged absence of Ricky Rubio, giving LaVine the on-the-job training that could prove immensely valuable in his development.

He's far from the most consistent player in this field, but his freakish athleticism should fit this environment perfectly. While he hasn't officially joined the Slam Dunk Contest, sources told Wojnarowski that LaVine is a "strong possibility" to participate.

Utility: Ben McLemore, Sacramento Kings

If the coaches decide they want to give New York fans one of their own players, this spot could go to New York Knicks guard Tim Hardaway Jr. But if it's based on merit, McLemore should get the call. Sacramento's athletic swingman has seen concurrent rises in usage and efficiency, highlighted by his 11.8 points-per-game scoring average and 45.5 field-goal percentage.

The World

Guard: Andrew Wiggins, Minnesota Timberwolves (Canada)

Wiggins may not even be able to see the rest of his rookie class anymore. The gulf between the No. 1 pick and the rest has grown that wide.

"Wiggins has clearly turned a corner toward his towering NBA ceiling," wrote Bleacher Report's Jonathan Wasserman. "The Rookie of the Year Award is officially his to lose."

Wiggins earned Western Conference Rookie of the Month honors in both November and December. And he's been even better since the calendar changed. Over his last 11 games, he's gone for 20.7 points on 47.2 percent shooting, 5.3 rebounds and 2.8 assists. Outside of closing the door on the dunk contest, per 1500ESPN.com's Derek Wetmore, it's hard to think of the last disappointing thing Wiggins has done.

Guard: Dennis Schroder, Atlanta Hawks (Germany)

Because the Hawks have successfully adopted the San Antonio Spurs' whole-is-greater-than-sum-of-its-parts model, it's easy to overlook Atlanta's individual pieces. But Schroder's spectacular sophomore campaign has been impossible to ignore. Only a part-time player as a rookie, he has forced his way into the rotation with 8.0 points on 44.1 percent shooting and 3.3 assists in only 17.7 minutes a night.

The Hawks are flying high with 28 wins in their last 30 games, and Schroder has played an underrated part in helping Atlanta climb to the top of the East.

Guard: Dante Exum, Utah Jazz (Australia)

Exum looks a lot like what he is: a 19-year-old rookie still finding his way in this league. The month of January has not been kind to him (4.3 points on 32.1 percent shooting in his last 10 games), but he's still an intriguing athlete with off-the-dribble explosiveness. He may not get a ton of run in this game, and he could still be involved with the game's best highlight.

Guard: Nik Stauskas, Sacramento Kings (Canada)

The international pool isn't exactly swimming with backcourt depth, so Stauskas gets the nod despite struggling to get himself going on this level. At his best, he's a lights-out shooter with the ball skills needed to make plays for himself or his teammates. But his numbers don't yet tell that story, as he has only averaged 3.6 points on 33.3 percent shooting and 0.7 assists in 14.0 minutes per game.

Frontcourt: Giannis Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee Bucks (Greece)

The last of the dunk contest participants revealed by Wojnarowski and a favorite of basketball bloggers everywhere, the Greek Freak is a no-brainer selection. He's long, athletic and contagiously energetic, a combination that has produced some of this season's best jaw-dropping moments. Who else is "Gyro Stepping" from the three-point line or slamming off a sky hook?

Frontcourt: Nikola Mirotic, Chicago Bulls (Yugoslavia)

The 23rd pick in 2011 has proved to be well worth the wait. Chicago's 6'10" forward is a walking mismatch. He has the size and skills to play the post, the shooting touch for the perimeter and the creativity to make plays anywhere in between. His shooting numbers have cooled in the new year, but he could erupt with a longer leash than the deep Bulls can afford to give him.

Frontcourt: Kelly Olynyk, Boston Celtics (Canada)

Speaking of tough covers, how about a 7-footer who averages nearly one made triple per game and shoots 35.4 percent from beyond the arc? Olynyk turned plenty of heads during his rookie year, and his sophomore season has been even better. He has five games of 20-plus points, three double-doubles and 11 outings with multiple three-point makes.

Frontcourt: Steven Adams, Oklahoma City Thunder (New Zealand)

Oklahoma City's 7-foot agitator should be a player opposing fans love to hate. But what's not to like about this guy? He plays with passion, protects the paint, does all the Thunder's dirty work, dazzles with pregame handshakes and gave the NBA its best mustache since Kurt Rambis hung up his sneakers. Oh, and Adams might have the highest ceiling among a deep group of international bigs.

Utility: Rudy Gobert, Utah Jazz (France)

The Stifle Tower has been a must-watch all season, but he's been bordering on absurd in the month of January. In 29.9 minutes a night, he has overstuffed the box score with 9.6 points, 9.0 rebounds, 2.0 assists, 1.1 steals and—wait for it—3.9 blocks. For context, no one has averaged 3.9 blocks over a season since Hall of Famer Alonzo Mourning did in 1998-99.

Gobert is big (7'1"), long (7'8.5" wingspan, per DraftExpress) and instinctive at the defensive end. He's exactly the type of player who could send this game in a different direction.

Utility: Gorgui Dieng, Minnesota Timberwolves (Senegal)

Is it overkill to put another imposing big on this frontcourt? Try asking the team that's going to try to score on these guys. Dieng isn't a defensive specialist. Make no mistake, he can wreak havoc at the rim (2.1 blocks per 36 minutes). But he's also a smooth scorer near the basket, a good shooter from mid-range and a developing passer from either spot.

Dieng's duct-tape game will go a long way toward making this supersize roster work. If the coaches opt for a (slightly) smaller group, Bennett or Bojan Bogdanovic could be options for the final spot.

Prediction

This should be an interesting contrast in styles, even if it mostly plays out as the up-and-down affairs as seen in the past. This is going to come down to whether USA's athleticism on the perimeter is enough to overcome the World's mountainous frontcourt.

In this type of setting, it's never a bad idea to bet on the guards. Hardaway and Dion Waiters combined for 67 points in last year's event, while Bradley Beal pumped in another 21 points, and Carter-Williams went for 17. That would seem to give USA the edge.

But look at the defensive roadblocks the international team can deploy. It's not just about having Adams, Gobert and Dieng patrolling the paint; it's also the wall that Wiggins, Antetokounmpo, Schroder and Exum can build on the perimeter. That's a terrifying mass of long limbs, nimble legs and all kinds of defensive deterrents.

Plus, that group now has a go-to scorer in Wiggins. Team USA has a lot of players capable of catching fire, but it lacks an obvious No. 1 option. If this stays close until the end, that could prove to be a fatal flaw.

These exhibitions are never easy to predict, but look for the World to find its way to a relatively comfortable win.

Final Score: The World 133, Team USA 121

Unless otherwise noted, statistics used courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com and NBA.com.

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