Colts' Glaring Roster Holes Mean Ryan Grigson Can't Miss in 2015 Draft

Evaluating individuals in the NFL is very difficult.

Statistics and team results can't be used to evaluate individuals because those numbers are created by layers upon layers of contributing factors from different elements. As much as we want to simplify the evaluation process, the simple fact is that the game is too complex to be simplified to such a degree.

Without even considering the more convoluted details, such a thing as the importance of a running back's offensive line is something that gets lost in a lack of context. An average running back behind a great offensive line is more likely to produce galling stats than a good running back behind a bad offensive line.

This is something that is typically understood or can be explained to your average football fan. However, it's something that is primarily only considered with players.

Evaluating NFL players is difficult, but it's much easier to evaluate individual players than it is individual coaches or individual general managers. The problem with evaluating these people is that they carry out specific roles in a process that is vast.

Like a good running back trapped behind a bad offensive line or a bad running back being elevated by a great offensive line, personnel men in the NFL can be affected by who they work with.

The accepted ideal is that the coach and general manager control everything about their franchise so they can be judged by its raw success. In a league that had perfect parity, this would be a truth. The NFL doesn't have perfect parity, though.

Although the league has gone to different lengths to try and create parity, the human element of the league will always make it impossible to level the playing field completely.

The salary cap primarily does what it is designed to do. The only problem with the salary cap is certain players prefer to live in different parts of the country, and each individual isn't motivated by money alone, so some teams will never actually have a chance at players they target.

Free agency isn't as significant as the draft, though. The draft is seen as the ultimate equalizer because of how it inverts the order based on the records of the 32 teams. However, what the NFL can't account for is the quality of the incoming class in a given year.

Volatile variations of quality can be seen from year to year in the draft.

Some years the college ranks offer up superstar talents who can walk onto NFL fields and become All-Pro- caliber players from the beginning to the end of their careers. Other years can see the best players from college be limited to below-average starters or even role players on the professional level.

While you may have the No. 1 pick in any given season, you can never be sure if the best-available player is going to be on the level of Orlando Pace or Eric Fisher.

Timing alone can be hugely important for an NFL team's success and by proxy the people running it. Sometimes it's about landing a franchise-altering player at the top of a given draft, other times it's simply about having the right types of pieces available to fill out the weaknesses on your roster before you're fired.

The threat of being fired in the NFL is always prominent. Twenty-five of the 32 head coaches in the league were hired to their current positions since 2010.

One of those 25 head coaches is Chuck Pagano of the Indianapolis Colts. Pagano arrived as the head coach, with Ryan Grigson taking over the general manager role at the same time. Grigson appears to be in charge of personnel in Indianapolis (teams typically ask their general managers to do this but not always).

Grigson also appears to be the greatest benefactor of timing over the recent history of the league.

It all began back on January 7, 2011. This was the day that Andrew Luck decided to forego the 2011 NFL draft so he could return to Stanford for his junior season. Luck had been expected to be the first overall pick of the 2011 draft, a prospect more highly thought of than anyone since Peyton Manning.

Around the same time, Manning himself would undergo neck surgery that would ultimately, and unexpectedly, cost him his 2011 season in the NFL.

Manning's absence caused the Colts to go 2-14 during the regular season, despite winning 36 games over the three previous seasons. The quarterback's importance obviously proved to be huge, and his absence forced the Colts to move on from their head coach and general manager at the time to rebuild with the No. 1 pick from the 2012 draft.

The 2012 draft that would feature Luck.

Although Luck saw some challenge to his status as the consensus top pick from Robert Griffin III of Baylor, he was always expected to be the first overall pick. It was a simple decision. A simple decision once the franchise had moved on from Manning. A decision that would be attributed to the new general manager, Grigson.

Since that point, every typical measurement of a general manager can only result in a positive grade for the young general manager.

The Colts went from a 2-14 team to an 11-5 team that lost in the Wild Card Round of the playoffs. In 2013, they progressed further after finishing with another 11-5 record. This time they made their way as far as the divisional round.

When almost everyone expected the Denver Broncos and New England Patriots to meet in the AFC Championship Game in 2014, the Colts took the Broncos place after another 11-5 record during the regular season.

Once again, the Colts lost after progressing further than the season before.

Grigson has tangible progress from season to season that he can point to in support of the work that he has done. However, that level of analysis is essentially the same as using the stats to compare the great running back with the bad offensive line to the bad running back with the great offensive line.

To really gauge Grigson's value, you need to look closer at his contributions to his franchise's success.

Any team with a quarterback of Luck's caliber while playing in a division of the AFC South's caliber is going to have bloated success. Any general manager running that team will be given a much greater margin for error than his peers.

In other words, Grigson is the running back playing behind a great offensive line.

His initial draft set the Colts moving in the right direction on the offensive side of the ball, but since then Grigson has failed to continually build on that initial quality. Trading for Trent Richardson was obviously an awful move, while the signing of Hakeem Nicks can only be considered a mistake.

T.Y. Hilton has developed into a good starting receiver, but Coby Fleener's lack of consistency has made him more of a hinderance than a comfort for his quarterback.

Until this offseason, Grigson hadn't made any major additions that would balance his offense and alleviate significant pressure on his quarterback. The addition of Frank Gore should do that. Gore may be older, but his intelligence as a runner and abrasive running style should dramatically improve a running game that was among the worst in the NFL last year.

Gore alone will make a big impression on the Colts offense, but adding Andre Johnson and Todd Herremans should significantly help also. Johnson has aged much better than the departed Reggie Wayne did, so it's fair to think that he may be the best receiver that Luck will have ever played with. Like Gore, Johnson is old but still very effective.

Offensively, Luck has enough pieces to scratch his potential production. Defensively is where Grigson still has significant work to do to make up for his past mistakes.

When the Colts lost to the Patriots in last year's AFC Championship Game, they conceded over 40 points to the same team for the second time in a single season. That is unacceptable for any team trying to be a contender.

This was a defense that Grigson had built. A defense that had primarily been built by acquiring veterans, instead of building a youthful foundation through the draft.

D'Qwell Jackson, Arthur Jones, Cory Redding, Erik Walden, Vontae Davis, Greg Toler, Mike Adams and LaRon Landry were all players Grigson acquired from other teams. Most came through free agency, while Davis, the most successful move, cost a second-round pick in a trade.

Very few of Grigson's defense had come through the draft. Only Jonathan Newsome and Josh Chapman even acted as role players in that game.

The one big investment Grigson made on the defensive side in the draft, Bjoern Werner, was made inactive with a suspect rationale. Werner and Trent Richardson are the two players Grigson has invested first-round picks in since the Luck selection.

Both were inactive for the team's biggest game of the year last season. Neither player has come close to meeting expectations as former first-round picks. Richardson was recently released.

A defense with glaring flaws is what Grigson has built in Indianapolis. By investing in proven veterans, often overpaying them too, Grigson hasn't developed players together. Instead, he tried to take a shortcut to competitiveness, something that aided the team in the short term but has hurt in the long term.

When the Colts were in position to reach the Super Bowl this past season, the defense was decimated with ease. That wasn't the first time either.

To truly become a contender instead of a benefactor of situation, Grigson needs to show his value now. He can't afford another offseason of missteps and missed opportunities. He needs to address the defensive side of the ball in the draft.

He made a good start with a couple of astute veteran additions in free agency. Both Trent Cole and Kendall Langford should upgrade the team's resilience upfront. They will help both against the run and as pass-rushers.

While the secondary could be upgraded also, the primary concern for Grigson is the rest of the front seven.

The lack of impact from Werner over his first few seasons will be forgiven if he can develop to replace Robert Mathis. Mathis may still be a valuable player next season, but it seems unlikely at this point as he is not expected to return quickly from his torn Achilles tendon injury.

A pass-rusher could be targeted in the draft, but it seems more likely that the Colts will look for an inside linebacker.

D'Qwell Jackson and Jerrell Freeman have proven to be unreliable options for the Colts. Jackson is simply past his prime at this point and declining in every area, while Freeman is primarily just a coverage linebacker who isn't good enough in that area to represent value as a full-time starter.

In the AFC Championship Game, this was particularly evident.

The Patriots blew out the Colts in a game that was never close. Offensively, the Patriots were able to consistently run the ball with ease, LeGarrette Blount carried the ball 30 times for 148 yards and three touchdowns, while Brady picked the defense apart with ease for 226 yards and three touchdowns.

An unfathomable 38-point loss for the Colts in their biggest game of the season was made only more insulting by the fact that they had previously been blown out by the Patriots at home during the regular season.

The Colts defense simply didn't have the talent to contain this caliber of offense. The Patriots focused on Freeman and Jackson with their game plan.

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For Brady's first throw of the game, he was able to gain an unopposed six yards. Jackson and Freeman were in zone coverage over the middle of the field. Both players dropped too deep, with Jackson being drawn to Julian Edelman running down the seam.

Brady had time to check the ball down to Shane Vereen who caught the ball cleanly before being tackled.

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Immediately after, on Brady's second attempt of the game, he attacked the same area of the field but pushed the ball further downfield. On this occasion, Freeman was too aggressive against Edelman working down the seam.

Edelman was able to push past Freeman and attack the space behind him. Fortunately for him, Brady missed the throw. The receiver was wide-open, though.

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Just a few throws later, Brady went after Freeman again when the linebacker followed Vereen out wide. The Colts left Freeman alone with the running back, which proved to be a mistake. Vereen was able to use his speed to run right by Freeman.

Once again, Brady's throw was inaccurate, but Vereen was able to adjust to the ball to still complete a 30- yard gain. A better throw would have given the diminutive back a touchdown.

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In the red zone, the Colts attempted to squeeze away the Patriots' space in their secondary by only rushing three defenders after the quarterback. However, Brady was still able to get a quick throw over the middle of the field because Freeman and Jackson had a miscommunication at the snap.

Freeman allowed Edelman to run free to space as if Jackson was supposed to be in position to pick him up. He looked to Jackson before reacting to the receiver.

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That quick throw ultimately led to a one-yard touchdown throw to James Develin. Develin simply ran to the flat, and he initially appeared to be well-covered by Jackson. Despite being in the perfect position, Jackson's tackle attempt saw him slide past the fullback.

Develin was able to reach into the end zone for a touchdown that the defense should never have allowed.

Most teams will struggle to handle the Patriots' passing game, especially over the middle of the field. However, those teams typically struggle because their linebackers are built to be effective against the run. The Colts struggled to stop the run all season long because of their lack of quality through the spine of their defense.

When you can't stop the opposition running on you to keep the down-and-distance in their favor, you have no chance of stopping the pass.

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Jackson was able to intercept Brady when he forced the ball down the seam to Gronkowski in double coverage. However, the Colts' best defense against Brady on this day was the Patriots' receivers leaving plays on the field. On a number of occasions, they dropped passes despite being left open.

Grigson needs to bring in multiple defensive pieces in this draft that can upgrade the defense early in their careers.

Inside linebacker is the most important spot to address, and there should be talent available to them. Each of Eric Kendricks, Stephone Anthony and Denzel Perryman would add some much-needed athleticism and talent to the middle of the field.

Those players may still struggle somewhat early in their careers, but the value of developing youth over proven-to-be limited veterans is significantly high.

In 2014, the Colts were 19th in efficiency against the run during the regular season, while giving up 113.4 rushing yards per game. Those numbers aren't good, but they aren't so bad that they will need multiple offseasons to catch up to those above them.

Because of the defense's inability, combined with the absence of a true running game, the Colts have been almost completely reliant on Luck to win them games in the playoffs recently. That's not something that Grigson can allow to continue.

Losing in the playoffs can be considered a success during the early years of a rebuild, but when you have one of the very best quarterbacks in the league that can't continue. It especially can't continue when the losses are so emphatic.

Evaluating individuals in the NFL is tough, but at this point it's fair to think that Grigson would have been fired long ago if he was the general manager of any other team.

Timing has got Grigson to this point. Now it's time for him to elevate the quality of his roster to the point that the Indianapolis Colts can be real contenders for the Super Bowl.

Stats are courtesy of Football Outsiders, unless noted otherwise.