Are Manchester United Actually Any Better Under Louis Van Gaal Than David Moyes?
Manchester United have now accrued more points under Louis van Gaal than they had under David Moyes at the equivalent stage of last season.
Last week, that statement would have been inaccurate. Both men guided United to 37 points in their first 21 league games. Van Gaal's victory over Queens Park Rangers on Saturday nudged him into the lead. In Moyes' 22nd game in charge, his side faced a trip to one of west London's more daunting challenges and lost 3-1 to Jose Mourinho's Chelsea.
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While the points totals were tied, several articles were written comparing the starts made by the two men. Given that Moyes' short United career ended as an ignominious failure, Van Gaal would certainly not have wanted to draw unfavourable comparisons by this stage of his time at the club.
Of course, given the way this season has gone for other teams, Van Gaal's United have a significant edge over Moyes' in terms of league position. Fewer points this time around for Arsenal, Liverpool, Tottenham Hotspur and Everton (although more for Southampton) mean that United are fourth rather than seventh.
But are the team actually any better? Even if the answer is yes—which I will argue it is—it is unfortunate for Van Gaal that it is not an obvious, easily quantifiable and resounding yes, particularly given the scale of investment in the summer.
References to "last season" from here on out refers to the first 22 games of last season, except where otherwise stated.
United have scored the same number of goals in the first 22 games as they had by the same stage last season—36. This is unsurprising given that they have made a near identical number of chances—213 this season to 216 last.
They have, however, conceded considerably fewer goals—21 this time around, compared to last season's 27.
Frustration with the attacking limitations imposed by Van Gaal's continued use of a back three is growing, as social media has made abundantly clear in the past few days, but fewer goals conceded tell a significant story.
Van Gaal is clearly aware of the formation's detrimental effects on United's fluency but appears to value the added solidity it offers. The Dutchman summed up his dilemma neatly in his post-match comments on Saturday, saying in his press conference (h/t Manchester Evening News):
"I know in advance when we play with four midfielders in a diamond that we create more chances but then the balance of the team is also weak. And you see it because we have created chances but also Queens Park Rangers have, and we have to decide every week how to play. That's the question.
"
It is a question he is yet to adequately answer. Given there have been 53 injuries since the beginning of August 2014, per Physioroom.com, it is perhaps not surprising that he does not yet know his squad well enough to line them up in a way which can get the best out of them.
Whether or not United are better (as yet) under Van Gaal, they are certainly different. As I wrote last week, when the back three has been used, United's percentages of long passes have significantly increased.
However, United have, in general, kept the ball better this season—averaging 56 percent possession to last season's 53. They have also made far more, and better, short passes—completing 8749 successful short passes this season compared to 7520 last.
They have attempted 790 short passes unsuccessfully, but last season that was 1015 by this point, a much-higher percentage of the total attempted.
Long passes have been more of an issue this time out. As with short passes, there have been more, but they have been of a poorer standard. This season, Van Gaal's men have completed 855 and lost possession with 605. For Moyes' side, those numbers were 726 and 383.
United's long passes are thus more risky this time out—on average, they are conceding possession with them 41.44 percent of the time to last season's 34.54 percent.
In total, United's pass accuracy is only one percentage point higher—85 to 84—but considerably more passes have been attempted. Of course, that is all very well, but it is not much use if chances are not being created at a higher rate.
Or at least, it is not of much use yet. It is, though, possible to argue that United spending more time on the ball will eventually bear fruit, and indeed it has already done so in specific games.
While the overall picture so far this season could suggest that United are no better off under Van Gaal than they were under Moyes, there have been more high points and—while the worst of Moyes' low points were still to come by this time last year—fewer dramatic lows.
United lost seven times in their first 22 games last season to this season's four. They had been destroyed at the Etihad and had chastening home defeats to West Bromwich Albion, Everton and Newcastle United. This season's trip to the Etihad ended with United accruing the same number of points, but the manner of defeat was unrecognisable.
Against QPR away on Saturday, United were dismal in the first half but did improve in the second thanks to Van Gaal's tactical and personnel switch.
This season's worst moments include the defeat to Swansea on the opening day—mitigated by the worst brunt of the injury crisis and the fact that most of the summer signings had not yet arrived.
The collapse against Leicester City was an embarrassment but, unlike Moyes' embarrassments, not one which has yet been repeated. The recent home defeat to Southampton was probably the worst moment of the season so far and came on the back of the drudgery of a series of away draws. However, Moyes had already made a habit of that kind of loss, and Van Gaal has not done so.
Although the fixture was yet to come for Moyes by this time last year, the fact that Van Gaal guided United to a 3-0 win over Liverpool at Old Trafford feels significant. United's performance in the 3-0 defeat last season was so horribly lacking in character and invention.
This season, the scoreline may have relied on David de Gea's brilliance, but United as a collective exuded a will to win that was missing almost all of last season.
United's good performances by this point last season had mostly come in the Champions League, something which we cannot directly compare given the continued absence of good performances in the league which followed. Even the opening day 4-1 win over Swansea City was a scoreline which flattered the then-champions.
The 3-0 win away to Aston Villa had been impressive enough, but this season United's performances against QPR, Hull City and Newcastle at home and the first half of Leicester away showed how effective Van Gaal's football can be against "smaller" sides.
More spirit—and quality—was shown against City away and Chelsea at home, and certainly against Liverpool at home, showing that United are a close match for the "bigger" sides.
There is a lot of work still to be done, and the frustration among fans is understandable, particularly given the excitement that built during United's summer spending spree. However, the highs being higher and the lows being less low is a good start.
United are better than they were at the same time last season. Let's hope that by season's end there have been further—and unequivocal—signs of improvement.
All statistics per Squawka.com.
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