Colts Must Again Stalemate Rob Gronkowski to Swing Patriots Upset

Last time the Patriots and Colts met, in Week 11, New England tight end Rob Gronkowski had one of the less impactful games of his season, catching just four balls for 71 yards and a score. 

Of course, that statistic doesn't really do justice to how he played. The Patriots threw the ball just 30 times because the run game was so dominant in a 42-20 win. Also, Gronkowski treated the Colts' back seven like a bowling ball treats bumpers on a ridiculous 26-yard touchdown catch that put the game away.

Still, that was about the best the Colts could hope for given the coverage players they had up the middle. A team is fooling itself if it thinks it can shut down someone as physically dominant as Gronkowski. The Colts did an excellent job of limiting him, though, and they did it mostly because they staggered their coverages to keep Patriots quarterback Tom Brady off-balance. 

I went back and watched every throw Brady attempted in the game. (A few of them didn't count for play-by-play purposes because of penalties.) Here's who I've got in coverage against Gronkowski for those plays:

Player	Coverage Count	Results
Sergio Brown	5	1/1, 16 yards, DPI
Jerrell Freeman	3	N/A
Greg Toler	3	N/A
D'Qwell Jackson	2	1/1, 26 yards, TD
Vontae Davis	2	1/1, 9 yards
Mike Adams	2	1/2, 20 yards, INT
Zone Coverage	4	N/A
Doubled	2	N/A
Blown Coverage	1	N/A
Blocking	4	N/A
Not on Field	4	N/A

As you can see, the Colts did a very good job of mixing their coverages. Both double-teams came with safety help for inside linebacker D'Qwell Jackson, which tells you all you need to know about the Colts hoping that he can stay with Gronkowski. 

I expect them, by and large, to stick with this game plan. The big difference for Indianapolis in this game is that safety LaRon Landry has essentially reclaimed his starter status following a four-game performance-enhancing drug suspension in the early part of the season, and he will probably replace safety Sergio Brown as the main defender that the Colts will throw on Gronkowski. 

RTV6's Mike Chappell relays this remark from Indianapolis head coach Chuck Pagano:

I suspect the Colts believe Landry is their best hope at safety to win against Gronkowski simply because he fits the physical profile of a guy who could. Landry was a top-10 draft pick for a reason: He isn't very disciplined, but players with his combination of speed (4.35 40-yard dash in 2007) and size (6'0", 226 lbs) are rarities in the NFL. 

Here's an example of the kind of physical play the Colts will be hoping Landry can stand tall on. Check out this 20-yard pass play to Gronkowski, who is matched up in single coverage against safety Mike Adams in the second quarter:

Source: NFL Game Rewind

At the top of his route, Gronkowski and Adams make contact. Normally, this is a good sign for a defender. Here, Gronkowski is so powerful that he can get deep into Adams' body, then jet out without losing even a hint of balance:

Source: NFL Game Rewind

A very easy pitch-and-catch strike later, and the Patriots have 20 yards. Adams was actually called for holding on this play, but the penalty was declined. 

I must say I'm skeptical that Landry will do any better, mostly because I have no faith in his coverage abilities. Denver tight end Julius Thomas abused him on a wheel route for a big gain in the divisional round, and I suspect he'll give up at least one big play in this game as well. 

But it is encouraging for the Colts that keeping their defensive strategies in flux seemed to limit Gronkowski in Week 11. It's also encouraging that Jackson and inside linebacker Jerrell Freeman have both played much better in the playoffs. 

If the elephant in the room is stopping New England's ground game, then the next step to keeping the Patriots in check is to make sure Gronkowski doesn't go off. The Colts showed they could do it in Week 11. Can they once again keep him from dominating the ball with a trip to the Super Bowl on the line?

Rivers McCown is the AFC South lead writer for Bleacher Report and the co-host of the Three-Cone Drill podcast. His work has also appeared on Football Outsiders and ESPN.com. Follow him on Twitter at @riversmccown.