Colts Must Find Way to Stop Pats Rushing Game to Have Chance in Foxborough
Here's the elephant in the room for any hope the Indianapolis Colts have of advancing to the Super Bowl on Sunday night: They simply have to play much, much better against New England's rushing offense.
The last two times the Patriots and Colts played each other—in the divisional playoffs last season and in Week 11 of this season—ended with the Pats physically dominating the game at the point of attack. The Colts gave up a grand total of 480 rushing yards and 10 rushing touchdowns in those two games, both eventually laughers in favor of the Patriots.
Colts head coach Chuck Pagano knows that to have any chance of beating the Patriots, the run fits and tackling must be much better.
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That the Colts defense could get whipped so thoroughly is amazing given the context of these performances: We're in a new pass-happy era for the NFL. Everyone is throwing more. For the most part, how well you throw in the modern NFL is more indicative of whether you will win the game or not.
And yet, the Patriots had such disregard for the Colts' front seven that they threw backup offensive lineman Cameron Fleming on the field for 38 snaps, intentionally weakening their options on passing plays because they simply knew they had the matchups they wanted.
How bad have the Colts been against this power-run game? Here's a list of splits from the last two games they've played by personnel. I included every "heavy" formation possible, which I'd define in the modern NFL as any formation with two or fewer wide receivers.
| 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE | 40 | 16 | 0 | 4 |
| 2 RB, 1 WR, 2 TE | 124 | 24 | 3 | 5.16 |
| 2 RB, 3 TE | 5 | 3 | 3 | 1.6 |
| 1 RB, 2 WR, 2 TE | 195 | 26 | 3 | 7.5 |
| 1 RB, 1 WR, 3 TE | 38 | 6 | 1 | 6.3 |
No need to further contextualize those numbers—that is completely unacceptable rushing defense at the NFL level.
Bleacher Report's Matt Bowen did a film breakdown of a play he liked that the Patriots ran against the Colts in the 2013 AFC Divisional Round: a 73-yard touchdown for LeGarrette Blount.
There's not much you can say about a rushing defense that inept. There's nothing to analyze. Look at how wide the interior hole is here. You or I could grab five yards with that much space. An NFL back like Blount? He can truck down safety LaRon Landry and take it to the house.
This is the game that Pagano and general manager Ryan Grigson had in mind when they spent $52 million theoretical and $27 million in guarantees to reel in linebacker D'Qwell Jackson and defensive lineman Arthur Jones. They believed that the infusion of talent would help strengthen their front seven.
Jackson played poorly against the Patriots in Week 11. Jones missed the game with an ankle injury that has hounded him for most of the season. The plan did not work that day, as running back Jonas Gray—who has done absolutely nothing else in his career to this point—rolled over the Colts.
But that doesn't mean it's too late for Indianapolis to gain redemption.
Indianapolis has been playing its best run defense of late. Jones is back. The middle linebackers have played well in the playoffs. Pats center Bryan Stork will likely miss the game, creating uncertainty in the middle of the line. Moreover, speaking purely from a perspective of regression theory, it seems extremely unlikely that the Patriots can run the ball that well again.
It comes down to this for the Colts. For Grigson and Pagano, who have preached gap-sound football and emphasized stopping the run and rushing the ball from Day 1 of their tenures.
If they can't press down on the Patriots now, with a trip to the Super Bowl on the line, then it's all just talk. They don't need to limit the Patriots to 10 yards on the ground. They don't even need to limit the Patriots to 100 yards on the ground.
But if they get embarrassed for a third straight game, it's time to seriously question the methods and strategies of stopping the run that the Colts have adopted. Good teams don't let themselves get kicked around like this. And if it's the difference between the Colts making the Super Bowl or not, it's a huge indictment on not only the defenders, but also the architects.
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