Why Tobias Harris Could Be the Steal of the 2015 NBA Free-Agent Class

The jury is out on whether Tobias Harris is a potential star or merely a stats-swallowing vulture who does productive things because someone on the Orlando Magic physically has to. (Only seven players in the entire league have played more minutes.)

What we do know is he's on the cusp of restricted free agency and due for a humongous pay raise. Harris is putting up amazing stats for a 22-year-old, averaging 18 points and seven rebounds per game, while shooting 47.4 percent.

David Zalubowski/Associated Press

From what we’ve seen this season and in his previous three, Harris is clearly someone to keep an eye on, an athletic, versatile wing who, if pried away from Orlando, could be the steal of his free-agency class. And based on his well-reported work ethic, it's safe to assume Harris only gets better through his prime. Here's the Orlando Sentinel's Josh Robbins with a few quotes from Magic head coach Jacque Vaughn and a couple of Harris' teammates:

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Victor Oladipo: "T.B. works so hard, man. I'm glad he's on my team. After watching him this summer, and watching how hard he worked and how [much] better he's gotten, nobody in this locker room deserves it more than him."

Nikola Vucevic: "He plays with a lot confidence. That comes from him working so hard. He put a lot of time in this summer to improve his game, and he did. Every day, you'd see him work out and try to get better, and it shows on the court.

"It all comes from that. It's the same for everybody. If you work, if you put the time in, you're going to be confident. He's a confident person in general."

Vaughn: "He has a mentality that allows him to continue to press on as a scorer."

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Before looking at where Harris may end up next season, let’s break down his strengths and weaknesses.

First, offense. According to NBA.com, when on the floor he’s responsible for one out of every four of Orlando’s field-goal attempts. Harris is also second on the team in usage percentage. But those numbers don’t accurately show how he’s used. 

When they aren’t posting up Vucevic, the Magic are knee deep in pick-and-roll action, utilizing Elfrid Payton and Oladipo, their two primary ball-handlers. The little guys fly into the paint off high and side screens and then either attempts a shot at the rim or kicks it out to the perimeter.

John Raoux/Associated Press

The unfortunate result for Harris is he doesn’t have a ton of opportunities to work with the ball in his hands, or show he can create for others. 

He’s averaging just 3.5 assist opportunities per game, lower than Derrick Favors, Gorgui Dieng and Kevin Garnett (who averages nearly 13 fewer minutes per contest). Making matters even less impressive, a solid chunk of Harris’ assists come on entry passes to Vucevic in the post.

The Magic will run him off pin downs and baseline screens, and he’s a fantastic instinctual cutter off the ball, but Harris’ value has an obvious cap if he can’t make teammates better.

Some of his statistical markers are hard to overlook, though. Orlando scores 100 points per 100 possessions with Harris on the floor and just 96.3 when he’s off it, per NBA.com.

And before their 23rd birthday, only four players in NBA history ever averaged at least 18 points and seven rebounds while shooting over 40 percent from beyond the arc. The three other guys on that list are/were really, really good. But if this feels arbitrary, that’s because it probably is.

Phelan M. Ebenhack/Associated Press

For all his efficient stats and tantalizing athletic flashes, right now it’s fair to call Harris one-dimensional. This doesn’t mean his game won’t or can’t expand, but any team looking to extend an offer sheet this summer shouldn’t focus on the fact that he’s shooting 40.7 percent from downtown, or posting career-highs in PER and true shooting percentage.

His skill set and size make him look like a young version of Jeff Green, which, if you’ve followed Green’s career, know that comparison is both a compliment and a curse. Harris can play both forward positions. 

Context is necessary.

This season, Harris is almost exclusively playing small forward, posting up shorter defenders in lineups that feature two other Magic big men (Vucevic, Kyle O’Quinn, Channing Frye or Dewayne Dedmon). When the matchups are right, Harris may be able to serve as a facilitator from the post. He’s strong and agile, a tough one-on-one proposition. Double-teaming him in the post is sometimes the only option. 

The sample sizes aren’t large, but with Harris as their small-ball 4, the Magic tend to get obliterated on defense, particularly with Vucevic at center. Some of this is on Harris, but he tries really hard, and he often looks better suited guarding bigs down low than chasing three-point shooters through screens.

Credit: NBA.com

The Los Angeles Clippers eventually score on this possession, but it's not until Harris denies Blake Griffin two low-post entry passes. It’s tremendous effort, and shows just how versatile he can be on that end of the floor. 

And on the other end, Orlando's offense is sort of awesome when it goes small. Harris feasts on slower bigs in the open floor, and the Magic will use him as a screener to force inorganic mismatches. Here he is pulverizing poor P.J. Hairston in a recent game against the Charlotte Hornets. 

Credit: NBA.com

Defensively, his work off the ball is a question; the Magic are 3.4 points per 100 possessions more stout with Harris on the bench, according to NBA.com. 

Harris isn’t great at tagging a rolling screener or helping stifle a cutter through the paint (like Dwyane Wade below) and then scurrying back to the three-point line. And too often he’ll take strange routes to cover his man off a screen, awkwardly shooting the gap and leaving Orlando at the mercy of a wide-open jumper or driving lane. Maybe he’s too big to do this on a full-time basis? Regardless, his defense must get better.

Credit: NBA.com

Now onto the juicy stuff: How much will Harris make? And where will he play next season? He plays a position several teams would love to fill, is three years younger than Jimmy Butler and is steadily improving from a statistical perspective. We’ll start with Orlando, a small-market team that presumably doesn’t want to let its home-grown talent walk if it can help it. 

Harris is restricted, meaning the team can match any offer sheets proposed by another team; something it's in an easy enough position to do: The Magic have roughly $38 million in guaranteed money on their books next season. (Along with Harris, they also have to worry about O’Quinn’s restricted free agency.)

From a financial perspective, this team should have no problem matching any offer sheet Harris gets, but two important factors measure into whether they will or not.

Fernando Medina/Getty Images

The first is obvious: How much dough are we talking? Harris’ next contract could range anywhere from $40 million-$50 million over four years. It’s hard to see Orlando pay Harris more than Vucevic, who signed a four-year, $53 million extension in October. If a hypothetical offer sheet for more than that comes in from a desperate cap-space hoarder like the Los Angeles Lakers or New York Knicks, will the Magic match?

Secondly, Orlando just drafted Aaron Gordon with the fourth overall pick. We don’t yet know his true NBA position, but it’s conceivable Harris’ presence could stunt the 19-year-old’s development by taking his minutes, touches and shots. This isn’t a deal-breaker, but it's definitely something for the Magic to think about.

Who else could make a play? The New Orleans Pelicans have a glaring need at small forward and enough cap room to throw something attractive in Harris’ direction.

They’d first need to renounce Omer Asik, though. That could throw a monkey wrench in this idea, but Asik will be 29 years old next season, is fighting a back problem and so far hasn’t been the smoothest fit beside Anthony Davis. A four-year, $48 million-$50 million offer sheet for Harris might do the trick.

Elsewhere, the aforementioned Knicks already have Carmelo Anthony playing an identical position, but who knows what they’ll do after striking out on every single unrestricted alpha dog (for what it's worth, Harris is from Long Island).

The Lakers aren't infatuated with potential, per se, but they’ll also have plenty of money to blow. If the Toronto Raptors say thanks but no thanks to Lou Williams and Amir Johnson, they could be in the conversation—pending what happens in this year’s postseason.

Fernando Medina/Getty Images

Harris’ mysterious marketplace is a reflection of his own skill set and potential. On one hand he's shown limitations in his game, excelling in certain areas and struggling in others that are arguably more important. On the other, for someone so young to put up such impressive numbers, you can only shake your head. 

At least once a game, he’ll break the sound barrier, ripping a defensive rebound off the glass before going coast-to-coast for an insanely difficult finish—with either hand—at the rim. He's a breathtaking player to watch. 

The odds on him becoming an All-Star aren't great—not everyone can be—but Harris has the potential to prosper as a mismatch creator (especially if that three-point percentage stays so high).

His free agency should be lots of fun.

All statistics are courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com or NBA.com, unless otherwise noted.

Michael Pina is an NBA writer who's been published at Bleacher Report, Sports on Earth, Fox Sports, Grantland and a few other special places. Follow him on Twitter @MichaelVPina.