T.Y. Hilton Must Rebound for Colts to Upset Broncos in Divisional Playoffs
Indianapolis Colts wide receiver T.Y. Hilton has had the best season of his career.
During his third season in the NFL, the 25-year-old wide receiver emerged as Andrew Luck's best option on a team that was supposed to be littered with talented receiving targets. Hilton matched his career high in receptions with 82 but surpassed his previous high in yardage by nearly 300 yards.
Hilton did that despite only playing 15 games during the regular season.
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Furthermore, Hilton barely played in the Colts' final regular-season game, as the franchise had already wrapped up its playoff position. Therefore, it could be argued that Hilton posted 82 receptions for 1,345 yards and seven touchdowns in the best part of 14 regular-season games.
Regardless of how the numbers break down, Hilton has clearly emerged as a vital piece of Pep Hamilton's offense. He is Luck's most dangerous and versatile receiver. Part of his rise has come about because of Hakeem Nicks' struggles, Reggie Wayne's injuries and Dwayne Allen's underwhelming return from injury. Only a small part, though.
Most of Hilton's ascension to this level of importance reflects what he has done individually.
Like in previous seasons, Hilton has been a consistent deep threat from different areas of the field. He has still left some plays on the field, but for the most part, he is only getting more dangerous as he continues to develop as a route-runner. Beyond that section of his skill set, Hilton is also developing into a more well-rounded receiver.
Although he stands at just 5'9" and 178 pounds, Hilton is able to get open against any kind of defensive back. He relies on his quickness as well as his speed to exploit any inch of space that can be found on the field. With Andrew Luck throwing him the ball, he also doesn't need to create a huge amount of separation.
Against the Cincinnati Bengals in the Wild Card Round of this year's playoffs, Hilton caught six passes for 103 yards—a stat line that suggests he had an impressive day.
Yet, Hilton wasn't very impressive. Against the standards that he has earned by becoming the Colts' primary receiving threat, Hilton wilted in the biggest game of the season to that point. He had 103 yards, but he cost his quarterback a significant amount more than that by failing at the catch point on a number of occasions.
Against the Bengals, this was something the Colts could overcome. Against the Denver Broncos in Denver, with Peyton Manning on the other side of the field, this kind of inconsistency from such an important player will likely cost the Colts any chance of an upset victory.
Hilton's first failure at the catch point came early during the first quarter.
At the Bengals 40-yard line, the Colts come out with Luck under center and a receiver wide to either side of the formation. Hilton is lined up against Terence Newman to the top of the screen. Newman is in press coverage with a single high safety lingering over the middle of the field.
Hilton is going to release inside before running back past Newman's outside shoulder to attack deep down the sideline.
Because of his initial release, Hilton is able to force Newman to turn toward him and not locate the football. He also puts his body between him and the sideline official, meaning that when Hilton uses a slight push off to create separation outside, the official can't see it.
This was a very impressive route from the young receiver and a perfect throw from Luck.
When Hilton turns toward the sideline and looks back for the football, he is backing up. He smartly extends his hands above his head to bring the football in and gets two hands on it cleanly. However, Newman recovers excellently to knock the ball out of Hilton's grasp as he brings it in to his body.
Even though Newman made an impressive recovery, Hilton needs to show more strength at the catch point to maintain control of the football through that attempt.
This play isn't necessarily considered a drop, but it is still a catch that Hilton should expect to make. To be a respectable No. 1 receiver, he needs to be able to make contested catches even when opposing defensive backs get their hands on the football.
Failing at the catch point here cost him 40 yards and a touchdown.
Midway through the first quarter, Hilton would leave another potential reception and big gain on the field because of his inability to catch the football. Again, this play wasn't necessarily easy, but it's still a reception that he should expect to make.
On 3rd-and-4, Hilton is lined up as the inside slot receiver to the wide side of the formation. The Bengals show off coverage at the snap and perfectly time their blitz inside. Hilton is left in man coverage against Leon Hall.
Hall is one of the best slot cornerbacks in the NFL, but Hilton is going to come free on a corner route.
Luck leads Hilton toward the sideline, but the receiver has time to track the football and get his hands underneath it. However, he doesn't cleanly catch the ball at first, and it bounces away from him as his body hits the ground.
Hilton gets open with relative ease in most situations, but he can't continue to leave plays such as this one on the field.
This play came on a 3rd-and-4, so Hilton's drop led directly to a punt. Furthermore, he slid out of bounds untouched at the 48-yard line, and the original line of scrimmage was close to the 15-yard line, so he lost 33 yards to go along with the reception.
On another 3rd-and-4 midway through the second quarter, Hilton cost his team another first down with a drop.
Hilton again finds himself working against off coverage when the Bengals blitz with both of their safeties inside. Luck recognizes the blitz immediately and finds Hilton on a quick out route. Hilton is wide open and has time to locate the football when he looks back for it.
Yet, he simply allowed the ball to go through his hands as he attempted to turn down the sideline instead of making sure of the reception.
The Colts were forced to settle for a field goal despite being so deep in Bengals territory. Hilton lost at least six yards and another reception with this drop. Late in the third quarter, Hilton dropped a pass in a similar situation, but on this occasion, he likely lost another touchdown.
Before the snap, Hilton lines up to the left side of the formation. However, when Luck signals to him, the wide receiver motions across the formation behind the line of scrimmage. He settles for a moment to the right of the line of scrimmage before running into the flat.
The Colts are running a designed play to Hilton.
Adam Jones follows Hilton across the formation with excellent speed. He breaks on the football ahead of Hilton, but the quarterback's arm strength allows the ball to arrive in Hilton's hands unperturbed. Hilton has to reach back for the football, but he makes the initial catch.
Like his previous failure at the catch point, Hilton's mistake here is that he doesn't secure the catch before turning downfield.
His initial catch allowed him to control the football, but it wasn't completely clean. When Hilton attempted to bring the ball into his body, it was loose in his grasp and arrived in his crotch rather than his stomach or chest.
Predictably, the ball fumbled through his hands and landed on the ground before Hilton could complete the catch.
If Hilton had completed the catch, he would have had plenty of time and space to turn upfield and walk in for a simple touchdown reception. This play would have given him one catch for five yards and a touchdown if Hilton hadn't failed to secure the football.
By not making these plays, Hilton potentially cost himself four receptions for 84 yards and two touchdowns.
While it's unrealistic to expect Hilton to catch every single pass that comes his way, each of these plays was one you would expect him to make. Furthermore, even if he only made half of these plays, he could still have had a significantly bigger impact on the game.
Luck is going to be under a lot of pressure against the Broncos because of their matchup advantages in the trenches. That should limit how many opportunities the passing attack has to create big plays down the field.
Therefore, Hilton has to have a better catch rate than he had last week.
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