Andrew Luck Still Needs to Prove Himself in Postseason Against Team Like Broncos

Sorry, Andrew Luck, but no one gets a free pass in today's NFL.

Luck, the Indianapolis Colts quarterback, has emerged as one of the bright young passers of his generation, but he still has work to do when the regular season is done and the playoffs start, and the improvement doesn't just end with his neck beard (though it might start there).

Let's start with the good, because there really is so much of it.

This season, Luck led the NFL with 40 touchdowns, was third in the NFL with 4,761 passing yards (his second time over 4,000 yards in three seasons) and was top-seven in passer rating and yards per attempt.

In case anyone was wondering...yeah, that's good.

I would go so far as to say that, in the twilight of the careers of Peyton Manning and Tom Brady, it's clear that Luck is one of the heirs apparent to the next great quarterback debate of our lifetime. He deserves a lot of credit, too, for being drafted into such a terrible situation in the post-Manning era in Indianapolis and helping the team rebound almost immediately.

Yet, much like his predecessor in Indianapolis, Luck hasn't been without fault in the first couple of years of his career—especially in the postseason. Now, admittedly, it took Manning until 2003 (six years in the league) to win his first playoff game. Luck has already won two through three seasons. But the comparison doesn't end with just wins and losses.

Nancy Armour of USA Today made the comparison in this way:

"

It took Manning two years to make the playoffs and six to get his first victory in the postseason. Luck has made it each of his first three years with the Indianapolis Colts, and has already won two postseason games heading into Sunday's AFC divisional-round matchup with Manning and the Denver Broncos.

He also has quietly begun bumping Manning down a spot in the Indianapolis record books, first the rookie section and now the single-season chapters. By the time Luck winds up his career, odds are he'll have rewritten the entire book.

"

It is arguable that Luck's easy road to the playoffs simply may have come at the expense of the AFC South, which has been anything but stiff competition in the past couple of years. The same could be said about many of his gaudy statistics.

This isn't to discount Luck's abilities or his accomplishments, but it does provide some context.

Manning entered the league in 1998. It was the old AFC East with the New York Jets, Buffalo Bills, Miami Dolphins and New England Patriots facing off with the rookie Manning twice a season. That's quarterbacks like Vinny Testaverde, Drew Bledsoe, Doug Flutie and a little-known chap by the name of Dan Marino leading the charge along with coaches like Bill Parcells, Jimmy Johnson and a young Pete Carroll.

In the comparison between the late 1990s AFC East and the current AFC South, the South runs home to its proverbial momma.

That's not the only contextual comparison that paints Luck in a bad light.

Here are the rest of the quarterbacks left in the playoffs this season in order of their career postseason passer rating (numbers are from Pro Football Reference):

"

Career postseason QB rating: Rodgers 103.1 Wilson 102.0 Peyton 89.2 Flacco 88.2 Brady 87.5 Romo 87.0 Newton 81.4 Luck 78.1

— Michael David Smith (@MichaelDavSmith) January 6, 2015"

First of all, let's just go ahead and marvel at the narrative-shattering order of that list. Brady and Joe Flacco are known as playoff "gamers," yet occupy the middle of the list. Cam Newton would pale in comparison to Luck on most lists of top young quarterbacks people would want starting a playoff game for them, but he's been objectively better by that metric.

But I digress...

This is about Luck, and although QB rating isn't a perfect metric of performance, it's better than the rehashed narrative of who's a "winner" or not. It at least informs us a little better as to just how Luck has performed in the playoffs, which is a solid "needs improvement."

He had posted this stat line before the Bengals victory.

If you saw those numbers without the name "Luck" attached, you'd probably be searching for your nearest pitchfork to rant and rave that the guy's "not a winner" or "wilts under pressure." Neither of those things is, of course, true about Luck.

Luck's last two games show the polar opposite of his playoff performances. Against the Cincinnati Bengals last week (the same Bengals who haven't won a playoff game since 1990, back when "Hold On" and "Black Velvet" were lighting up the charts), Luck completed over 70 percent of his passes.

Last season, in the Colts' playoff loss to the New England Patriots, people may have wanted to make it about being "outdueled" (whatever that means) by Brady, but Luck didn't have to face Brady at free safety. No, he faced the Patriots defense and was atrocious to the tune of 49 percent passing.

Pro Football Reference also uses a stat called "Adjusted Yards Per Attempt" where it weights touchdowns and interceptions into the number. That number was 9.0 for the Bengals games and only 4.66 against the Patriots.

Again, it hasn't all been bad for Luck, but when it's been bad for him, it meant a loss for the Colts.

This is normal. This is what being a young quarterback means in the NFL. For Luck, though, the upward trajectory is clear, and he's got a pretty good cheering section rooting for him. This from Manning, via a conference call transcribed on Colts.com: 

"

Well, it’s not surprising at all. When you combine somebody with as much ability as he has with, from what you hear about it, just a great work ethic. It’s not surprising that he’s had the success that he’s had, and he’s had such a big impact on their offense playing so well.

"

In the divisional round, against the Denver Broncos, the Colts face an opponent that isn't quite a defensive powerhouse—allowing 22.1 points per game, 16th in the league—but certainly a defense that can rush the passer. Denver tied for ninth with 41 sacks (notably, Indianapolis was one of the teams tied with that number).

Jeff Gross/Getty Images

If Luck isn't on his game, that Broncos pass rush, led by Von Miller and DeMarcus Ware, could make his numbers trend a lot closer to his two worse playoff performances. If that happens, the Broncos offense can seal the deal not only with Manning and the passing attack, but also with running back C.J. Anderson, who can close out a game—especially against the Colts' porous rushing defense.

The Colts need to score and score early to have a shot against the Broncos, and that means Luck needs to be at his best.

None of this ignores or disputes the fact that Luck is a tremendous passer and, as mentioned, likely one of the next truly great QBs of this generation. But this is what great quarterbacks do. They win games like this, and when they don't, their greatness is questioned.

Not even Luck gets a free pass from that NFL reality.

Michael Schottey is an NFL National Lead Writer for Bleacher Report and an award-winning member of the Pro Football Writers of America. Find more of his stuff on his archive page and follow him on Twitter.