New England Patriots Pull off Historic Turnaround; Now They Must Capitalize

At the quarter mark of the season, I rang the death knell for the New England Patriots dynasty.

Four games in, they were sitting at .500, and lucky to be there. They'd been handled by the Miami Dolphins, given fits by the Oakland Raiders and pantsed by the Kansas City Chiefs. Tom Brady looked awful, the offensive line soft and the defense adrift on Revis Island.

Since then, they've been nothing less than the best team in football.

They won their next seven straight, and 10 of the final 12. Their only two losses were an all-time classic against the contending Green Bay Packers and a meaningless Week 17 game against the Buffalo Bills. They finished as the No. 4 scoring offense in the NFL, and the No. 8 scoring defense. They won the AFC East, extending their division-title streak to six seasons and raising their total to 12 of the past 14.

Charles Krupa/Associated Press

Over the last 12 games, the Patriots pulled off one of the most dramatic in-season turnarounds the NFL has ever seen. They didn't just lose some close ones, then win some close ones like the 2013 San Diego Chargers; they elevated their play from mediocrity to excellence.

Before Week 5, a statistical analysis of the Patriots compared to the rest of their historic run dramatically revealed this.

After spending years on end parked at the top of statistical metrics like points scored, points allowed, Pro Football Focus grades (subscription required), the Simple Ranking System and Football Outsiders DVOA, at the quarter pole of 2014, the Patriots weren't in the top 10 of any of them.

The Patriots finished No. 1 in DVOA six of the previous 13 seasons, but after that disastrous Monday Night Football performance, they sat 23rd—in the bottom third of the NFL.

Here's what happened after that:

Credit: Ty Schalter/Bleacher Report

The Patriots' 11-week stretch of outstanding play (plus the meaningless Week 17 sleepwalk) vaulted them almost to the top of the most comprehensive single-number team-strength metric there is. Save for Week 7's 27-25 win over the New York Jets, the Pats turned in an above-average team performance from Week 5 on.

They finished No. 1 in SRS, clinched the AFC's No. 1 seed and, per OddsShark, are the betting favorite to win the sixth AFC championship of the Belichick-Brady era.

That's great.

No, really, that's honestly great. It's the most dominant run any team's ever had. Despite my midseason proclamation, I was wrong: The Patriots dynasty isn't over yet.

There is a "but" coming.

... But.

After racking up a mind-boggling 9-0 record in their first three trips to the postseason, and winning the Super Bowl three of their first four years together, Brady and Belichick haven't won the Super Bowl since the 2004 season. They are now on the cusp of 10 years without a title.

That's a decade with nine division titles (and an 11-win season), but just two lost Super Bowl appearances. Were it not for the three rings won at the outset of the millennium, we'd be talking about the Patriots' legendary futility. This stretch of regular-season dominance and postseason fruitlessness puts the Buffalo Bills of the 1990s and Minnesota Vikings of the 1970s to shame.

Brady and Belichick might be running out of chances to prove they can still close the deal.

Even given Brady's incredible four-week stretch where he threw 14 touchdowns and zero interceptions, he's still not quite the quarterback he used to be. He hasn't led the NFL in any major passing stat since 2010, per Pro Football Reference, and his efficiency stats this season are decidedly second-tier:

	Comp. Rate	TD Rate	INT Rate	Yds/Att	NFL Rating
Value	64.1%	5.7%	1.5%	7.1	97.4
Rank	14th	5th	4th	18th	5th

Again, these are still great numbers, and Brady's still a great quarterback. Most NFL teams would gladly have swapped their signal-caller for Brady this season. But the Pats have Brady signed through 2017; they'll be able to throw him an "over the hill" party before they stop paying him an eight-digit salary to play professional football.

If he's still a Pro Bowl-caliber quarterback at that age, he'll become just the second all-time member of that incredibly exclusive club. Let's not forget that Belichick's no spring chicken himself; at 62, he's already old enough to receive Social Security payments.

The end isn't here, but it's close.

This weekend, Brady and Belichick host the Baltimore Ravens. They're a flawed team, but they have teeth. They piled up 49 sacks this season, tied for second best in the NFL. In the Wild Card Round, Haloti Ngata, fresh off his four-game suspension, ran point for a merciless pass rush that sacked Ben Roethlisberger five times and held the dangerous Pittsburgh Steelers offense to just 17 points.

Did I mention the Patriots' pass protection, per Pro Football Focus, is the fourth worst in the NFL?

If there's a common thread to the Patriots' postseason disappointments, it's fierce pass rushes disrupting Brady's ability to get downfield. The surprising running game that powered the Patriots' turnaround has taken a turn for the worse, averaging just 95 team yards in the last six games. If the Patriots are one-dimensional against Baltimore, scoring enough points to keep Joe Flacco and the Ravens at bay will be tough.

Should they pull it off—and relax, Pats Nation, I picked them to win—the Patriots still have to get through either the Denver Broncos or Indianapolis Colts, and even then must topple the NFC champion to remove any doubt about which is the greatest dynasty the NFL's ever seen.

Can they do it? Absolutely. But if they do, it won't be on the strength of a decade-old narrative. It'll be because 37-year-old Tom Brady and 62-year-old Bill Belchick and 33-year-old Vince Wilfork and all the rest are still the best in the business when it comes to playing football.

If they don't, it'll be because they aren't.