Atlanta Hawks Poised to Become Next Beast of the Eastern Conference
It's time to take the Atlanta Hawks seriously.
This squad isn't just some flash in the pan, rolling through the Eastern Conference only because that half of the NBA is at a historic low point. Atlanta isn't going to fade away into obscurity and mediocrity anytime soon, even if the team still inexplicably doesn't draw in enough outside viewers who would surely appreciate watching the pristine ball movement and three-point prowess.
No, these Hawks are here to stay.
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Not only are there plenty of signs that they're going to remain competitive throughout the 2014-15 season, striving for one of the top spots in the Eastern Conference and making a prolonged postseason push, but the team's profile is rife with evidence that Atlanta will remain a top-notch squad throughout the foreseeable future.
It's a far cry from the days of the mid-2000s, when the Hawks bottomed out and then slowly improved their record year after year. It's different than when they were a consistent playoff team with Joe Johnson on the roster, competitive but ultimately crippled by the shooting guard's albatross of a contract.
Strange as it may sound to those who have written off this franchise each year, the Hawks are poised to become long-term beasts of the East.
Fantastic Short-Term Outlook
According to the Elias Sports Bureau, via ESPN.com, the Hawks have finished up their best month since moving to Atlanta in 1968-69, going a scorching 14-2 during December. That mark hasn't been matched since January 1997, and only a pair of months from the St. Louis days top it—10-1 during March 1965 and 9-1 during October 1967.
On the heels of an eight-point victory over the LeBron James-less Cleveland Cavaliers, Atlanta is now a stellar 23-8, giving it a record topped by only the Toronto Raptors (24-8) in the Eastern Conference. And these aren't just empty wins that the team is earning, as all the underlying numbers indicate that there's hope of sustained success throughout the season.
Per Basketball-Reference.com, the Hawks are scoring 108.1 points per 100 possessions and allowing 103.1 over the same span. That gives them the No. 11 and No. 7 finishes in those two categories, respectively, and the combination undoubtedly makes them one of the top two-way squads in the Association.
Take a look at their combined rank stacked up against other title contenders:
Are the Hawks elite on either end? Not really, but they're quite good on both. Distribution of success seems to be one of the themes of this team, and that's a statement that applies to both the balance of defense and offense and the contributions of the players involved.
Digging even deeper into what Atlanta has done thus far, everything still looks quite good.
According to my FATS projection (full explanation here), the Hawks are currently tracking toward a 53-win season. That would tie with the 2009-10 campaign—in which Atlanta won a playoff series and then bowed out—as the franchise's best mark since Mookie Blaylock, Christian Laettner, Dikembe Mutombo and Steve Smith were leading the charge in 1996-97.
Even more impressively, there's reason to believe the team will exceed that context-free projection. The production of most crucial pieces has seemed quite sustainable, and the team clearly enjoys playing under head coach Mike Budenholzer. Plus, working in the Eastern Conference helps, just as it already has throughout the year.
But the key behind the expected improvement upon that 53-win pace rests on the shoulders of Al Horford.
"I'm just happy I can work my way back and not be the person holding back this team," the big man who missed so much time last season with a torn pectoral recently told NBA.com's Shaun Powell. "The last couple of weeks, I've felt normal. And it's good to feel that way and be productive, because this is a good group of guys, a solid team to be around."
He has reason to feel so optimistic.
Horford struggled at the beginning of the season, but lately he's been rounding into his All-Star form of previous years, even winning Eastern Conference Player of the Week:
| First 19 Games | 12.8 | 6.2 | 2.6 | 56.5 | 112 | 106 |
| Last 11 Games | 17.8 | 6.9 | 3.2 | 55.0 | 109 | 99 |
Admittedly, he's gotten a bit less efficient on the offensive end of the court. But he's playing significantly better defense and taking on more responsibility in the scoring schemes, which has given the Hawks yet another threat to pair with Kyle Korver, Paul Milllsap, Jeff Teague and what seems like any player on the roster on any given night.
Let's not forget that Horford is a two-time All-Star who's still only 28 years old. Though he may have been hindered by a pair of freak pectoral tears over the last few seasons, he's been nothing but effective when fully healthy and confident.
"When he's healthy, he's one of the top 25 players in this league," an anonymous but high-ranking NBA executive told ESPN Insider Jeff Goodman just before Christmas. "He plays both ends of the court, and that's what separates him from some of the other big men. Sure, Dwight Howard is better defensively—but he can't really score. Kevin Love is a better offensive player, but he doesn't guard. Horford does it all."
As Goodman writes, "One NBA executive put the difference between Horford in or out of the lineup over an 82-game schedule at about 10 victories. Another said that figure might even be a bit conservative."
With him in the lineup, the ceiling is higher than it's been in well over a decade for this Atlanta team. And it's not going to start falling toward the floor in the near future, either.
Clear-Cut Identity
"He's brought that [Spurs] culture to the East," LeBron James told ESPN.com's Israel Gutierrez about Budenholzer after his Miami Heat eked out a tough victory on Dec. 23, 2013. "It's not a good thing for the East."
Just about a year later, deja vu struck.
Now wearing Cleveland Cavaliers gear rather than his Miami Heat threads, James spoke about Atlanta before he sat out with a sore knee against the Hawks on his 30th birthday and watched his team come up short, per Jason Lloyd of the Akron Beacon Journal.
"We call them the San Antonio Spurs of the East," James said. "They move the ball, share the ball, it doesn't matter who gets the credit, all that matters is who gets the 'W' at the end of the game. That's what they're trying to implement down here and they're very successful with it."
James, perceptive as ever, is onto something. Then again, it seems as if much of the basketball-watching world has noted that Budenholzer, a former Gregg Popovich disciple, has been attempting to turn his Hawks into the Eastern version of the Spurs ever since taking charge of the Eastern squad.
Ball movement rules the roost for these Hawks, who are near the league lead in so many categories tracked by NBA.com's SportVU data:
| Score | 25.6 | 325.5 | 6.8 | 50.0 | 59.7 |
| Rank | No. 2 | No. 5 | No. 3 | No. 1 (tie) | No. 2 |
The team is completely and utterly unselfish, moving the rock to find the most advantageous shot at all times. No one calls his own number too often, and everyone is willing to swing the ball around the perimeter or kick it out on a drive if that's the play that would result in easier points.
Take a look at the teams that use assists on the highest percentage of their made two-point field goals this season, per Basketball-Reference.com:
And now, the same for three-pointers:
The Hawks lead the league in both categories, and that shouldn't be surprising to anyone who's watched the squad since Budenholzer took over prior to the 2013-14 campaign. He's established a comfortable system that the players thrive in, after all. Even last season, the Hawks ranked No. 2 and No. 9 in those respective categories.
And with that much ball movement, it's tough to find the team's premier star. As Powell writes:
"There's a small possibility the Hawks won't have a player in the 2015 All-Star Game. How weird would that be if, by chance, the Hawks are leading the East by then? Paul Millsap, Horford, Jeff Teague or Kyle Korver should garner a All-Star reserve spot, even though none of them are producing earth-moving numbers or contributions.
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Sound familiar? San Antonio has had to deal with perceived disrespect toward its individual players and a tough go at All-Star bids in recent years, simply because it's the collection of players that makes the team so special. Granted, the Spurs have three Hall of Famers on the roster, but the Hawks are working toward getting to that San Antonio level. No one is claiming they're actually there quite yet.
Nonetheless, that system is one of many reasons to feel good about Atlanta's ability to sustain success well into the future. The Spurs have kept their core, their coach and their system together for years, and they've been able to compete at a high level season after season, enduring changes in the construction of their roster.
Now, the Hawks are poised to do the same thing.
Future Benefits
Looking beyond the system that's now in place, there's more to love about the Hawks' long-term hopes.
First, the eventual sale of the franchise could have a huge impact. After the drama surrounding the organization during the offseason, as summarized by Powell, changes are in line in the near future:
"That's when [Danny] Ferry, then the general manager, and a leaked memo from ownership put the franchise in a pickle.
Ferry mentioned in a team conference call how Luol Deng, a 2014 free agent the Hawks considered pursuing, had 'a little African' in him, a crack at Deng's supposed tendency to deceive. Separately, Hawks majority owner Bruce Levenson complained in a memo (which he revealed) about the Hawks' woeful attendance and openly wondered how to attract more white fans.
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Atlanta has never been a hotbed for free agents.
The team has gone after notable names—most recently, Chris Paul and Dwight Howard two offseasons ago—but nothing has actually come to fruition, given the city's strange lack of appeal. Without much historical success and an arena that rarely fills up unless it's inundated with fans waiting to rain down MVP chants for opposing players, the Hawks have consistently struck out during the hottest months of the year.
Scoring Paul Millsap on a bargain-bin contract was very much a coup, and precious few expected him to immediately become an All-Star once he left Salt Lake City behind.
But once a new owner is in charge, there's the possibility of a culture change in Atlanta, one that would lead to some more offseason success. And that's still just icing on an already delicious cake, as the Hawks could continue their lackluster levels of free-agency success and still just keep getting better.
The system is in place, and the roster is already filled with players who could either remain key pieces or improve dramatically. Millsap, Horford, Teague, Korver and more are all certainly keepers, but it's the young players like Dennis Schroder and Mike Scott who could push this franchise over the top.
The German point guard is particularly intriguing.
After a lackluster rookie season, he's looked vastly improved, to the point that Budenholzer has kept him in during crucial late-game situations when he's playing well. Here's what Bleacher Report's Dan Favale wrote while calling Schroder the NBA's star of tomorrow at the point guard position:
"Atlanta is also 10-0 when Schroder plays at least 20 minutes. The comparison to Rajon Rondo lives on as well. And, in many ways, Schroder is exceeding expectations there.
At the very least, a healthy Rondo remains a fitting comparison. At best—and equally possible—comparing Schroder to Rondo doesn't do his potential justice.
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If Schroder continues to improve this rapidly, the Hawks will be able to throw out a two-headed monster of point guards. Or, if Teague and Schroder keep struggling while sharing the court, the younger floor general could make his older counterpart totally expendable, allowing the Hawks to shop him around before he hits free agency and add a piece that's an even better fit.
But he's not the last reason for long-term optimism.
The Hawks are in great financial shape down the road, as their roster is filled with movable assets and reasonable prices. According to ShamSports.com, Atlanta has just over $42 million committed next season with only Millsap, DeMarre Carroll, Elton Brand and John Jenkins coming off the books. It could very well keep the entire core together and still have money to spend in pursuit of further improvement, especially with the expected cap rise from the league's new television contract coming into play.
Throw in the right to swap picks with the Brooklyn Nets—thanks, Joe Johnson!—in the 2015 NBA draft and an additional second-round pick coming over from the Raptors, and there are even more building opportunities.
Among the current pace, Horford's re-emergence as a star, the system, the coach, the young up-and-comers and the financial situation, what exactly isn't to love?
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